Iran offers first government-issued death toll from protest crackdown, one far lower than activists

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, attends a seminar in Beirut, Lebanon, Friday, Jan. 9, 2026. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla)

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — Iran offered its first government-issued death toll Wednesday following a crackdown on nationwide protests, giving a far lower figure than activists abroad as the country’s theocracy tries to reassert control after unrest recalling the chaos surrounding its 1979 Islamic Revolution.

State television carried statements by the Interior Ministry and the Foundation of Martyrs and Veterans Affairs, an official body providing services to families of those killed in wars, saying 3,117 people were killed. It added that 2,427 of the dead in the demonstrations that began Dec. 28 were civilians and security forces. It did not elaborate on the rest. Iran’s government in the past has undercounted or not reported fatalities from unrest.

The U.S.-based Human Rights Activists News Agency said the death toll early Thursday was at least 4,902, with many more feared dead. The human rights group has been accurate throughout the years on demonstrations and unrest in Iran, relying on a network of activists inside the country that confirms all reported fatalities. Other groups similarly have offered higher numbers than the Iranian government tally.

The Associated Press has been unable to independently assess the death toll, in part due to authorities cutting access to the internet and blocking international calls into the country. Iran also reportedly has limited journalists’ ability locally to report on the aftermath, instead repeatedly airing claims on state television that refer to demonstrators as “rioters” motivated by America and Israel, without offering evidence to support the allegation.

Meanwhile, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi issued his most-direct threat yet to the United States, warning the Islamic Republic will be “firing back with everything we have if we come under renewed attack.”

The comments came as Araghchi saw his invitation to the World Economic Forum in Davos rescinded over the killings, and as a U.S. aircraft carrier group moved west toward the Middle East from Asia. U.S. fighter jets and other equipment appeared to be moving in the Mideast after a major U.S. military deployment in the Caribbean saw troops seize Venezuela’s Nicolas Maduro.

Protest death toll rises

The death toll exceeds that of any other round of protest or unrest in Iran in decades, and recalls the chaos surrounding the 1979 revolution that brought the Islamic Republic into being. Although there have been no protests for days, there are fears the toll could increase significantly as information gradually emerges from a country under a government-imposed shutdown of the internet since Jan. 8.

Nearly 26,500 people have also been arrested, according to the Human Rights Activists News Agency. Comments from officials have led to fears of some of those detained being put to death in Iran, one of the world’s top executioners.

Mass executions and the killing of peaceful protesters have been two red lines laid down by U.S. President Donald Trump in the tensions.

Araghchi makes threat in column

Araghchi made the threat in an opinion article published by The Wall Street Journal. The foreign minister contended “the violent phase of the unrest lasted less than 72 hours” and sought again to blame armed demonstrators for the violence. Videos that made it out of Iran despite an internet shutdown appear to show security forces repeatedly using live fire to target apparently unarmed protesters, something unaddressed by Araghchi.

“Unlike the restraint Iran showed in June 2025, our powerful armed forces have no qualms about firing back with everything we have if we come under renewed attack,” Araghchi wrote, referring to the 12-day war launched by Israel on Iran in June. “This isn’t a threat, but a reality I feel I need to convey explicitly, because as a diplomat and a veteran, I abhor war.”

He added: “An all-out confrontation will certainly be ferocious and drag on far, far longer than the fantasy timelines that Israel and its proxies are trying to peddle to the White House. It will certainly engulf the wider region and have an impact on ordinary people around the globe.”

Araghchi’s comments likely refer to Iran’s short- and medium-range missiles. The Islamic Republic relied on ballistic missiles to target Israel in the war and left its stockpile of the shorter-range missiles unused, something that could be fired to target U.S. bases and interests in the Persian Gulf. Already, there have been some restrictions on U.S. diplomats traveling to bases in Kuwait and Qatar.

The USS Abraham Lincoln, which had been in the South China Sea in recent days, had passed through the Strait of Malacca, a key waterway connecting the sea and Indian Ocean, by Tuesday, ship-tracking data showed.

While naval and other defense officials stopped short of saying the carrier strike group was headed to the Middle East, its current heading and location in the Indian Ocean means it is only days away from moving into the region.

U.S. military images released in recent days also showed F-15E Strike Eagles arriving in the Mideast and forces in the region moving a HIMARS missile system, the type used with great success by Ukraine after Russia’s full-scale invasion in the country in 2022.

Kurdish exiles claim Iranian attack in Iraq

The National Army of Kurdistan, the armed wing of the Kurdistan Freedom Party, or PAK, meanwhile claimed Iran launched an attack Wednesday against one of its bases near Irbil, some 320 kilometres (200 miles) north of Baghdad. It said one fighter had been killed, and released mobile phone footage of a fire in the predawn darkness.

Iran did not immediately acknowledge the attack, which would be the first foreign operation Tehran has launched since the protests started.

A handful of Iranian Kurdish dissident or separatist groups -- some with armed wings -- have long found a safe haven in northern Iraq’s semiautonomous Kurdish region, where their presence has been a point of friction between the central government in Baghdad and Tehran. The PAK has claimed it launched attacks in Iran as a crackdown on the demonstrations took place, something reported by semiofficial Iranian news agencies as well.

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Jon Gambrell, The Associated Press

Associated Press writers Stella Martany in Irbil, Iraq, Konstantin Toropin in Washington and Elena Becatoros contributed to this report.