Expert warns to expect more chaos and uncertainty in Venezuela

Canadians are rallying in support of the capture of Venezuela's President Nicolás Maduro.

An expert on international security and political violence is warning that the situation in Venezuela will continue to unfold into disarray, as is the case when any leader is removed from a regime.

Robert Pape, director of the Chicago Project on Security and Threats and a political scientist, told CTV News Channel on Sunday that the disruption and uncertainty that’s happening right now in Venezuela is what’s to be expected after a top leader is taken out.

“There’s no case you can find where taking out the top leader doesn’t lead to chaos and instead lead to this idea of tight control,” Pape said.

• READ MORE: Expert warns U.S. oil push in Venezuela faces major risks, long timeline

The South American country has been in a state of turmoil after a U.S. military operation on Jan. 3, in which Nicolás Maduro was captured and eventually arraigned in New York on drug trafficking charges. Since then, the U.S. has seized tankers linked to Venezuelan oil and says it plans to oversee the global sale of tens of millions of barrels indefinitely.

Pape said that Trump isn’t interested in establishing a democracy in Venezuela, which is why he hasn’t involved Maria Machado, leader of the opposition and a Nobel Prize winner.

Instead, Trump wants oil.

• READ MORE: Trump promises oil executives ‘total safety’ if they invest in Venezuelan after Maduro ouster

That will be a tough sell to oil executives, who Pape said are in it “for a paycheque, not a bullet.”

He added that civilian oil contractors will be put in a vulnerable position for months, and maybe years, and that it’s unlikely acting President Delcy Rodrigue will do anything to help.

“We’re just at the beginning of the issues of instability and chaos,” he said. “This is what happens when you take out the top leader. You don’t get control, you get chaos and instability, and it can unfortunately grow pretty extremely.”

• READ MORE: The past and potential of Venezuela’s oil sector, and what it means for Canada

Pape warns that the ability for the U.S. to control the regime is “shrinking day by day”.

On Friday, U.S. President Donald Trump called on oil companies to go back into Venezuela, to which they’ve been hesitant.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration says that as of 2023, Venezuela had 303 billion barrels of proven crude oil reserves -- 17 per cent of the world’s total and the largest of any country.

That’s more than Saudi Arabia, the second largest oil reserves, and Iran at No.3. Canada has the world’s fourth largest proven crude oil reserves at 163 billion barrels, the vast majority in Alberta’s oilsands, Natural Resources Canada says.

With files from Tammy Ibrahimpoor and The Canadian Press