Brazil’s Supreme Court nears a verdict in coup plot trial of former president Jair Bolsonaro

Brazil's former president Jair Bolsonaro stands at the entrance of his home where he is under house arrest in Brasilia, Brazil, Tuesday, Sept. 2, 2025. (AP Photo/Luis Nova)

BRASILIA, Brazil — Brazil’s former President Jair Bolsonaro was one step away from being convicted for attempting a coup, after two Supreme Court justices voted Tuesday to find the right-wing leader guilty of trying to illegally hang onto power.

Three members of the five-judge panel trying Bolsonaro’s case must support a conviction, in a process that can last several days. Two judges voted for conviction before proceedings were adjourned until Wednesday. Three more must cast their votes.

Justice Alexandre de Moraes, who is overseeing the case and is considered by Bolsonaro supporters a foe, said the far-right politician who governed Brazil between 2019 and 2022 was the leader of a coup plot and of a criminal organization, and voted in favor of convicting him.

“We can’t forget that little by little Brazil almost returned to a dictatorship that lasted 20 years,” de Moraes said, in a reference to the country’s military rule between 1964-85. “That was because of a criminal organization built by a political group that doesn’t know how to lose elections.”

Justice Flavio Dino also voted to convict Bolsonaro. Proceedings were then adjourned, with court sessions scheduled every day through Friday.

As de Moraes spoke, Dino and another justice, Carmen Lucia, nodded. But Justice Luiz Fux told de Moraes that he planned to disagree with parts of his ruling.

De Moraes spoke for about five hours, listing a series of “executory acts” that he said made up the attempted coup, including casting unfounded doubts on the country’s electoral voting system, drafting a decree to suspend the result of the election which Bolsonaro lost, and riots on Jan. 8, 2023, which de Moraes said were aimed at forcing a military takeover.

De Moraes rejected Bolsonaro’s claim that when he discussed “possibilities” of staying in power, he did so within the limits of the law.

“Call it whatever you want: This was a draft decree for a coup d’etat,” de Moraes said. “A series of executive acts were carried out aimed at breaking the democratic rule of law and perpetuating power through a coup d’etat.”

Bolsonaro did not attend the court, and his lawyers declined to speak to the press on Tuesday. Judicial police officers carried assault weapons in the court room and in the nearby lobbies, in a sign of the high-profile nature of the case.

The former president is facing five counts for allegedly attempting a coup after his narrow loss to current President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.

Bolsonaro has always denied any wrongdoing, repeatedly calling the trial a politically motivated attack.

Trump interest in trial outcome

Prosecutors have pointed to evidence that Bolsonaro assembled top Cabinet and military officials to discuss issuing an emergency decree aimed at suspending the election outcome of October 2022 in order to investigate alleged voting fraud.

But last week defense lawyer Celso Vilardi vehemently noted that the decree was never issued, and that instead Bolsonaro ordered a transition of power to Lula. The defense also has noted that the Jan. 8 riots took place only after Lula already was inaugurated.

“The planning is not the execution. No matter how detailed the planning may be, it is the act of violence that actually consummates the crime,” Vilardi told the justices at the televised proceedings. “Bolsonaro ordered a transition.”

Bolsonaro “did not act against the democratic rule of law,” he added.

As he laid out his vote in favor of a conviction, de Moraes disagreed.

“The mere attempt -- especially because the completion will not allow anyone to be held responsible -- consummates the crime” of a coup, he said, adding that if it had been successful the Supreme Court itself would be on trial.

Bolsonaro called himself the victim of a “witch hunt,” using the same expression as U.S. President Donald Trump in defending his right-wing ally. Trump has directly tied a 50% tariff on Brazilian goods to his ally’s judicial situation and is expected to be closely watching the trial outcome.

On Sunday, tens of thousands of Bolsonaro supporters took to the streets. In Sao Paulo, his wife Michelle Bolsonaro said in a speech that he loves the country.

Bolsonaro is charged with five counts: attempting to stage a coup, involvement in an armed criminal organization, attempted violent abolition of the democratic rule of law and two counts involving destruction of state property.

A guilty verdict on the coup plot charge alone carries a sentence of up to 12 years.

If one of the justices requests a longer review, the verdict could be delayed for up to 90 days, but court experts have said that’s unlikely.

Remains under house arrest

In the event of a guilty verdict, each justice can recommend a sentence. If recommendations differ, a single justice chosen among the panel would determine an average of the prison time and possible fines.

Seven other close allies of Bolsonaro are being tried alongside the ex-president, including Walter Braga Netto, his former running mate and defense minister, and Paulo Sergio Nogueira, another former defense minister.

Deemed a flight risk, Bolsonaro is wearing an ankle monitor and remains under house arrest. He did not appear in court last week due to ill health, Vilardi told journalists.

The trial marks a historic moment in Brazil: For the first time, high-ranking military officers and a former president accused of plotting against democratic rule are standing trial.

`Quite unpredictable’

Despite pressure from the White House, Brazil’s Supreme Court has kept the trial on track.

Observers said any U.S. sanctions against Brazilian authorities could be announced after the trial, further straining their fragile diplomatic relations.

Government officials or other Supreme Court justices could be sanctioned, like de Moraes already was late July, said Oliver Stuenkel, a professor of international relations at the Getulio Vargas Foundation, a think tank and university.

The reaction “could also involve broader visa restrictions for government officials, or more tariffs,” Stuenkel said. “It’s quite unpredictable.”

On Tuesday, the U.S. embassy in Brazil reposted a message from a day earlier from the U.S. State Department, declaring that the Trump administration would “continue to take appropriate action” regarding individuals such as de Moraes who they say have abused their authority.

On Saturday night, Lula delivered a national message ahead of Sunday’s Independence Day celebrations saying Brazil “will not be anyone’s colony,” taking an indirect swipe at the Trump administration.

Hughes reported from Rio de Janeiro.

Eléonore Hughes And Mauricio Savarese, The Associated Press