Amid heightened tensions between China, U.S., leaked Pentagon memo paints doomsday scenario: analyst

China's balloon use 'clumsy': ex-CSIS director Former CSIS director Ward Elcock suggests China is 'looking for something' if it's using balloons, rather than relying on satellites.

Tensions have reached a fevered pitch as the world's two largest economies inch closer and closer to all-out confrontation. China’s high-stakes decision to illegally launch a spy balloon into U.S. airspace has set off a chain reaction.

There has been speculation the balloon launch was retaliation for the announcement by the United States and the Philippines to expand America’s military presence on the island nation. Clearly, the tit-for-tat is rapidly escalating tensions and could see the long-time competitors' already acrimonious relationship descend to the point of no return.

Each nation has thrown punches at each other in recent years. A trade war; expulsion of diplomats; and a war of words round out the degree of combat. Now however, the punches are leaving marks. China, despite consternations from the White House, continues to hold Russia close. This in spite of ongoing efforts by the West to isolate Moscow for its unilateral and illegal invasion in Ukraine.

Summarily, a recent visit to Taiwan by then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi caused tremendous unease in Beijing. Her visit put China on high alert, including fighter jets engaging in ominous flyovers during the congresswoman’s visit.

Even after that imbroglio, President Joe Biden continues his assertions the U.S. will vociferously defend the East Asian country in the event of a Chinese invasion.

These ongoing pronouncements by the Commander-in-Chief have only inflamed tensions. Nevertheless, in spite of bouts of rising aggression, Beijing and Washington have always found a way to invoke the proverbial safety valve to release the pressure. A commitment to maintaining open lines of communication has always been the key to diffusing tensions and lowering the temperature. That safety valve, however, is beginning to show increasing signs of wear and tear.

Recently, the Republican-controlled House of Representatives easily passed a resolution creating a bipartisan China Select Committee. Meanwhile, 146 Democrats joined a majority of Republicans supporting the measure. The newly created committee, which consists of seven Republicans and five Democrats, “will zero in on the Chinese Communist Party’s economic, technological, and security progress and the strategic competition between Beijing and Washington.”

Just five days after the United States shot down the Chinese spy balloon, The House of Representatives overwhelmingly passed a resolution condemning China for its actions. The resolution passed the chamber 419-0. In addition to denouncing Beijing for its deceptive practices, the measure calls on the Biden Administration to keep Congress “apprised of developments on the incident.”

China has become one of the last remaining issues that unify both parties in an increasingly partisan and polarizing national political climate. Chinese telecom and tech companies including Huawei, ZTE, and TikTok have been galvanizing forces for leaders of both political parties. The deep well of mistrust for the Communist nation runs deep. Congressional lawmakers and state leaders are joining the effort to take on, what they see, as a clear and present danger to U.S. national security.

LEAKED MEMO RATCHETS UP DOOMSDAY SCENARIO

Underscoring domestic politics as a driver of the ongoing tensions, DeWardric McNeal, managing director of Longview Global and a former Obama administration official working on China stated: “The U.S.-China bilateral relationship, which was already quite bad, is now stuck at this current state for the foreseeable future. Because of the domestic politics in both countries neither side can capitulate or accommodate the other, I don’t see much room going forward for putting the floor underneath this downward slide.”

As if the latest events were not enough to strain an already taut and hypersensitive situation, a leaked Pentagon memo ratcheted up the doomsday scenario. U.S. four-star General Mike Minihan outlined the case for war between the United States and China as early as 2025. The memo, which sent shockwaves throughout Washington, states: The big one (i.e., a conflict with China) is coming. And it isn’t going to be very long before we’re going to get tested in ways that we haven’t been tested in a long time. He goes on to say, “they (China) are putting capability in the field faster than we are.”

Some have dismissed the memo. A Pentagon official said the General’s views do not represent the Defense Department. However, Minihan’s comments are not the first to predict direct military conflict with China. In 2021, Admiral Philip Davidson, testified before a Senate committee “the Chinese threat to Taiwan would manifest…by 2027.”

The annual State of the Union address delivered by President Biden offered a glaring example of the prescience of these two defence officials.

During his address to Congress, President Biden forcefully stated: If China threatens our sovereignty we will act. The China-U.S. relationship is a conundrum that will continue to play out in ways both big and small. China’s continued aggression in the South China Seas has put its neighbors, many of them U.S. allies, on edge. Moreover, President Xi’s bellicosity toward Taiwan grows exponentially. A clash is inevitable. And based on President Biden’s pronouncements, so is America’s military response to such a clash.

Ominous language and equally ominous actions from the East and West. Denunciations and rejections by U.S. Pentagon officials betray ongoing actions of military buildup in the Asia pacific. Moreover, the recent actions by China, to launch a spy balloon illegally into U.S. airspace, portrays a Chinese president’s high tolerance for risk provoking a U.S. response. All leaving two superpowers appearing to ready their aims and intent (though arguing to the contrary) on firing.