A pop star, an aging autocrat and a crackdown: What to expect from Uganda’s election

Opposition presidential candidate Robert Kyagulanyi, popularly known as Bobi Wine (C), waves a flag from atop a car as he arrives for the party's final campaign rally in Kampala on Monday. (Luis Tato/AFP/Getty Images via CNN Newsource)

Millions of Ugandans will Thursday cast their votes in a crucial presidential rematch between a former pop star and their long-time authoritarian leader, who aims to prolong his nearly 40-year rule.

In their previous encounter at the polls in 2021, President Yoweri Museveni, now 81, won by a landslide. Bobi Wine, a singer-turned-politician, finished a distant second.

Wine, whose real name is Robert Kyagulanyi, disputed the results, claiming they were rigged. The 44-year-old former pop singer, who claims he has been beaten, tasered, and attacked with teargas while campaigning against Museveni, is now rarely seen in public without a flak jacket and helmet.

Who are the main contenders?

Museveni seized the top job in 1986 – when Wine was just three. He secured the presidency following an armed uprising, and is now seeking a seventh consecutive term in office. Observers and analysts expect he is very likely to achieve it.

He has built his campaign around the motto “protecting the gains,” portraying a legacy of peace and stability during his four decades in power, and promised to lift Uganda – one of the world’s poorest countries – to a “high middle-income status” through investment in manufacturing and agriculture.

Museveni’s critics claim he has so-far held on to power by sidelining opponents.

Wine has built his identity on uncompromising opposition to what he describes as Museveni’s “dictatorship.” He is promising to build “a new Uganda,” pledging to revive political freedoms, eradicate corruption and create jobs. His campaign has mobilized millions of disenchanted young Ugandans.

“It is important for us to challenge the authoritarian leader – again and again – until we eventually get our freedom,” Wine told CNN. “Because not challenging him means giving up.”

“We know that all (institutions of the state) are up against us – the military, the police… But it is clear that the people of Uganda are standing firm behind the positive change that I am leading.”

While the election is seen as primarily a contest between Museveni and Wine, there are six other candidates, including prominent lawyer Nandala Mafabi.

Mafabi, 59, attracted large crowds in parts of Uganda, where he promised to manage the country’s resources prudently and campaigned with the slogan, “Fixing the economy; money in our pockets.”

Will the election be fair?

Museveni’s ruling National Resistance Movement party has altered Ugandan laws to help him maintain power, including the removal of age and term limits for the presidency. After securing a fifth term in 2016, he told the BBC that “we don’t believe in (presidential) term limits.” He has faced repeated criticism for suppressing opposition rallies and cracking down on anti-government protests.

On Tuesday, just two days before the vote, Ugandan authorities implemented a nationwide internet blackout and restricted mobile services, similar to actions taken during the previous election.

In the lead-up to the 2021 election, violent clashes resulted in dozens of deaths. The European Union Council of Ministers highlighted widespread issues with the electoral process at the time, noting internet blackouts, harassment of opposition leaders, and media suppression, including raids on observer offices.

In the run-up to Thursday’s vote, chaotic scenes resurfaced, with CNN witnessing security forces using violence against Wine and his supporters at rallies. Wine has characterized the election as a “war,” citing the imprisonment of hundreds of his mainly young supporters.

The Ugandan police deny any intention to target Wine or his supporters. However, last week, authorities imposed restrictions on live broadcasts of riots and “unlawful processions.” Museveni encouraged security forces to use tear gas instead of live ammunition to disperse what he labeled as “the criminal opposition.”

The UN Human Rights Office raised concerns about “widespread repression and intimidation against the political opposition, human rights defenders, journalists.”

Presidential hopeful Mafabi told CNN he had been “targeted by police” several times. He recounted one such incident in Amudat, a town in northeastern Uganda, where his car came under gunfire. “Challenging Museveni comes with a lot of risks,” Mafabi said.

CNN has contacted police authorities for comment.

What factors will influence voters’ choices?

About 21.6 million Ugandans are registered to vote, making up less than half of the country’s population of over 45 million, according to the electoral commission. Notably, nearly half of Uganda’s population is under the age of 18, the voting age.

Recent polls indicate that corruption and unemployment remain voters’ top concerns. Uganda is grappling with significant government corruption, with approximately Sh. 10 trillion ($2.7 billion) in public funds misappropriated annually, according to the Inspectorate of Government, the nation’s anti-corruption agency.

Additionally, data released by the Uganda Bureau of Statistics in September revealed that nearly half of the country’s youth population, aged 18 to 30, is unemployed, uneducated, or lacking training. This age group makes up over 23% of Uganda’s total population.

Analysts believe that many potential voters are yearning for new leadership. “Clearly, everybody wants to see a different government,” stated Yusuf Serunkuma, a columnist for the Ugandan Observer newspaper and a researcher at Makerere University in Kampala, the country’s capital.

While the desire for change is widespread, “the government has a firm hold on any space where change might come from,” he added.

What are Bobi Wine’s chances of winning the election?

“There’s zero chance,” Serunkuma said of Wine’s chances of gaining the presidency. He told CNN that Uganda’s opposition is hampered by ineffective organizational structures.

“The government has put in place measures to make sure that the incumbent is declared winner,” he claimed, alluding to the alleged influence the government has over the electoral commission.

Simon Mulongo, a former lawmaker and ex-African Union envoy, echoed Serunkuma’s prediction about the election outcomes.

“Bobi Wine has emerged as a powerful symbol of generational aspiration. However, winning national power requires more than symbolism,” he explained. “It demands deep organizational structures, nationwide coordination, and the capacity to secure and protect votes across rural and urban areas.”

Wine came to prominence in the early 2000s for his vibrant dancehall music, which often addressed social injustices. His rise to global recognition came in the 2010s when his song “Kiwani” featured in the soundtrack of the Disney film Queen of Katwe (2016).

Despite his popularity, Wine has faced backlash for some of his past lyrics, including homophobic messages advocating for the “banning and killing of all homosexuals.”

It led to a 10-year ban on his entry into the United Kingdom, which was lifted in 2023.

Following a trip to the UK two years ago, Wine publicly renounced his previous beliefs, telling supporters that “people grow and transform.”

In 2023, Ugandan lawmakers enacted some of the strictest anti-gay laws in the world, which include the death penalty for “aggravated homosexuality,” and up to 20 years in prison for individuals identifying as LGBTQ+. CNN could not confirm whether Wine was in support of the legislation.

Will the election be violent?

Serunkuma expressed uncertainty about the potential for unrest during and after the election, describing the situation as “unpredictable.”

“There’s so much anger and anxiety. You can’t be 100% sure where the spark would come from,” he said. “It’s a nervous moment for everybody; it’s a nervous election.”

However, Mulongo does not foresee chaos on polling day.

“Historically, voting itself has been relatively orderly, with most tensions arising either during the campaign period or after results are announced,” he explained. “The days following the announcement of results will be as important as election day itself.”

Why should the rest of the world care?

Under Museveni’s leadership, Uganda has emerged as an important ally of Western countries, providing troops for regional military operations. The country currently shelters nearly 2 million refugees, the most in Africa.

Museveni has maintained a favorable relationship with the United States, recently agreeing to accept migrants rejected by the US. He has also facilitated the entry of French and Chinese companies to begin oil drilling in Uganda, with production set to start later this year.

Wine has stated that he intends to review the oil contracts if he is successful in the elections, telling Reuters that “any part in those agreements that does not favor Ugandans will definitely be revised.”

He has been critical of Uganda’s foreign partners for continuing to support Museveni despite his human rights record.

According to Serunkuma, this courting of the West may be a strategy for Museveni to tighten his grip on power as he seeks a seventh term in office.

“In 40 years, Museveni has succeeded tremendously in sustaining Western capital. That is his genius (and) that has given him a longer hold on to power,” he said.

By Nimi Princewill