ECCC summer outlook forecasts warmer temps, high wildfire risk in Manitoba

Environment and Climate Change Canada is predicting higher than normal temperatures and an increased fire risk.

Manitoba’s dry spring paired with a summer of unseasonably warm temperatures could keep the province’s wildfire risk high in the coming months.

Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) unveiled its seasonal summer outlook Tuesday, predicting higher-than-normal temperatures throughout most of the country, including Manitoba.

However, ECCC national warning preparedness meteorologist Jennifer Smith said how that warmth shows up could vary from region to region.

“In some places, it might come as one major heat wave. In others, it could be recurring, short-wave spells or just a subtle, consistent warmth that pushes seasonal averages up—enough to nudge the stats, but not always notable.”

Cool periods are still expected, Smith added, thanks to cold fronts, storms, and breezes off lakes and oceans.

The one outlier is the northwest. The weather agency predicts regions along the Beaufort Sea could experience unseasonably cool temperatures over the next three months.

Meanwhile, the Prairies’ dry spring could only increase the wildfire risk in the coming months, particularly in July, when risk is expected to be above average through much of the province and well above average in August through the bulk of Manitoba, except for the most southerly regions.

Wildfire risks are forecast to be similar across much of the Prairies and western Canada. It’s a trend fuelled by climate change, meteorologists say, which lengthens fire seasons and creates more hot days that are fertile grounds to spark wildfires, be it human or environmentally caused.

“Especially when we combine that with dry periods, like we’ve seen this spring, warming temperatures from human-caused climate change exacerbate the wildfire risk,” explained ECCC research scientist Megan Kirchmeier-Young.

It is not clear whether precipitation will do much to mitigate that risk.

Smith said models couldn’t find a strong or reliable signal through most of Manitoba to predict how much rain we should expect this summer.

“Summer precipitation is tricky to forecast because it’s driven by scattered thunderstorms and local downpours, which are difficult to predict months in advance,” Smith said.

Smith also cautioned that the seasonal outlook is meant to give a broad, three-month snapshot but does not forecast day-to-day or even week-to-week weather happenings.