The 905 could determine whether Canadians see a majority or minority government. Here is why.

A man casts his vote for the federal election in a polling station on Toronto's Ward Island on Monday, May 2, 2011. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Chris Youn

The 905 has long been a battleground for Liberal and Conservative politicians and during the upcoming federal election, all eyes will be on the seat-rich region.

A party’s success in the 905, which includes the GTA municipalities outside of the City of Toronto, can often be the determining factor in whether the country ends up with a minority or majority government, University of Toronto political science professor Nelson Wiseman told CP24.com.

“And it can determine are you going to have a Liberal government or a Conservative government,” he added.

The region, Wiseman said, has more seats than all four Atlantic provinces put together.

“They almost have as many seats, not quite, as Alberta,” he said.

Support in the region historically shifts between Liberals and Conservatives, with the NDP typically performing poorly in the GTA outside of downtown Toronto.

“The last Liberal majority was 2015. The Liberals did overwhelmingly well in the 905,”Wiseman said.

But in recent years, support appeared to be swaying back to the Conservatives.

‘The polls have gone topsy-turvy’

The 905 generally refers to the four regions outside of Toronto that make up the GTA, including Peel (12 seats), York (nine seats), Durham (seven seats) and Halton (six seats).

Less than six weeks ago, Wiseman noted that some polling suggested that the Conservatives were poised to dominate the 905.

“There was a seat projection by a site called 338 Canada, and it was suggesting that the Conservatives would win 28 seats out of 30, Liberals maybe one, NDP one,” he said.

“But since then, the polls have gone topsy-turvy. The Liberals have skyrocketed.”

Wiseman said it appears Justin Trudeau’s departure has greatly improved the party’s fortunes across the country, with many polls now forecasting that the Liberals could be in a position to form government when voters cast their ballot on April 28.

“The minute he left the scene, even before (Liberal Leader Mark) Carney was elected… support for the Liberals started going up,” Wiseman said.

“As it became obvious Carney was going to win the leadership, their support kept coming up, and once he did win the leadership, now that he’s prime minister, he’s getting all kinds of attention…People thought, wow, this guy has economic chops. Maybe you can do a better job with Trump.”

Multiple Liberal cabinet ministers who had previously announced that they would not be running for re-election reversed their decision, opting to run under Carney, the former governor of the Bank of Canada and Bank of England.

“I think that all tells you something,” Wiseman said.

“That’s a sign of how the parties are doing nationally, and it reverberates in regions, including the 905.”

In a slimmed down cabinet sworn-in after Carney became prime minister, eight of those 23 ministers represented GTA ridings.

‘The 905 is especially important’

Both Carney and Conservative Leader Pierre Pierre Poilievre have both made multiple appearances in the 905 so far and likely to return to the region as the campaign progresses.

In the 2021 election the Liberals won big in the 905 on the strength of a strong showing in Peel Region, where they took 11 of 12 seats including all of those up for grabs in the population centres of Mississauga and Brampton.

But last year the Conservatives won the longtime Liberal stronghold of Toronto-St. Paul’s in a byelection, raising hopes that they could make a breakthrough in the GTA.

“It’s an interesting election dynamic because essentially the Conservatives have to run against somebody’s CV,” University of Windsor political science professor Lydia Miljan told CP24.com.

She said policy has got little to do with this election, which seems entirely focused on one question: Who can best lead Canada through an ongoing trade war initiated by U.S. President Donald Trump.

Miljan said despite the overwhelming support the Conservatives see in the west, it is difficult for the Tories to convert that popularity into seats.

“Where they struggle is really Ontario and Quebec and well actually Eastern Canada as a whole,” she said.

“So for them to be able to form government, they really need vote-rich Ontario. They need all those ridings and the 905 is especially important.”

She noted that former Prime Minister Stephen Harper was successful in wooing GTA residents when he secured a majority government in 2011.

“The blue wall that essentially the Conservatives were able to mount in 2011, that’s how Stephen Harper won his majority government,” Miljan said. “So it’s definitely a region that the Conservatives will be kind of looking to target in this election.”