Canada coach has ‘gut feeling’ about what lies ahead at FIFA World Cup draw

Canada forward Cyle Larin (17) celebrates his goal against Honduras with teammates during first half CONCACAF Nations League soccer action in Toronto on Tuesday, March 28, 2023. World Cup winner Argentina topped the latest FIFA rankings for the first time in six years while the Canadian men, boosted by CONCACAF Nations League wins over Curaçao and Honduras, climbed six places to No. 47. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Nathan Denette .

Like everyone else, Jesse Marsch is eager to learn Canada’s World Cup path at Friday’s draw in Washington, D.C.

But the Canadian coach has an idea of what his 27th-ranked side can expect in Group B, which has already been decided as its landing spot as co-host.

“I have the gut feeling that we’re going to see an opponent that we’ve already played since I’ve been here,” Marsch said.

The draw procedure is simple with the 12 groups populated from four pots, which are sorted by world ranking, other than the co-hosts.

Marsch is expecting a European team with 16 UEFA entries in the expanded 48-country field (12 European teams have already been decided, with the remaining four coming from a 16-team playoff). And he says Canada has an excellent chance of getting an African side.

Qualified teams that Canada has already played under Marsch, who was named coach in May 2024, include No. 13 Colombia, No. 16 Uruguay, No. 23 Ecuador, No. 26 Australia and No. 42 Ivory Coast.

Canada, the 14th-ranked U.S. and No. 15 Mexico have been placed in Pot 1, along with nine top seeds — No. 1 Argentina, No. 2 Spain, No. 3 France, No. 4 England, No. 5 Brazil, No. 6 Portugal, No. 7 Netherlands, No. 8 Belgium and No. 9 Germany.

Teams cannot face countries from the same confederation in the round-robin stage, with Europe the exception because of the number of teams entered. No group can have more than two UEFA teams in it.

The 12 group winners, 12 runners-up and eight best third-place teams advance to the knockout rounds.

Under the draw procedures, Canada will open Group B play against the team drawn from Pot 4 before heading west to Vancouver, where it will face the team first from Pot 3 and then from Pot 2.

So Canada could kick off its campaign against No. 66 Jordan, No. 68 Cabo Verde, No. 72 Ghana or No. 86 New Zealand. But the Canadian men could also face No. 12 Italy, assuming it survives the final European qualifying.

A worst-case scenario could see Canada face No. 10 Croatia, No. 11 Morocco or No. 13 Colombia from Pot 2, No. 29 Norway or No. 34 Egypt from Pot 3 and Italy or No. 21 Denmark from Pot 4, assuming they advance via the European playoffs.

Canada would face co-host Mexico in the Round of 32 if both teams finish runner-up in their groups.

Mexico will play out of Group A, and the U.S. in Group D.

By being placed in Pot 1 with the top seeds, the co-hosts avoid the top nine countries — which should increase their chances of advancing. But that also means that Canada’s Group B will be a desirable landing spot.

“You become the team that everyone hopes to get,” said former Canada coach John Herdman. “I’m talking about the Croatias, the Moroccos (both in Pot 2), those teams that are fantastic international teams. They’re all hoping to drop into your group and then therefore you become the team that everyone’s looking to beat.”

Forty-two of the 48 qualified teams have already been decided. Six more, all to be placed in Pot 4, will come from qualifying playoffs in March

The 16-country European playoff field also includes No. 25 Turkey, No. 28 Ukraine, No. 31 Poland, No. 32 Wales, No. 43 Sweden, No. 44 Czechia, No. 45 Slovakia, No. 47 Romania, No. 59 Ireland, No. 63 Albania, No. 65 North Macedonia, No. 69 Northern Ireland, No. 71 Bosnia-Herzegovina and No. 80 Kosovo.

Two more will come from a separate six-country playoff tournament, featuring No. 56 Congo DR, No. 58 Iraq, No. 70 Jamaica, No. 76 Bolivia, No. 123 Suriname and No. 149 New Caledonia.

FIFA says the decision to put the playoff winners in Pot 4, which also includes No. 82 Curaçao and No. 84 Haiti, was made to avoid disadvantaging teams that had already qualified in favour of sides that had to go the additional step of making the field.

The winner of Canada’s Group B will face a third-place team from Group E, F, G, I or J in the round of 32. The Group B runner-up will meet the second-place team in Mexico’s Group A.

The highest-ranked teams, No. 1 Spain and No. 2 Argentina, will be placed on different sides of the draw, as will No. 3 France and No. 4 England.

With just two international windows — March 23-31 and June 1-9 — before the World Cup kicks off June 11, there are limited tune-up opportunities left. Canada has been lining up opponents, yet to be announced, based on what it expects to see at the draw.

Canada, ranked 41st in the world at the time, was grouped with No. 2 Belgium, No. 12 Croatia and No. 22 Morocco at the 2022 World Cup in Qatar. The Canadians lost all three matches, outscored 7-2, and will be looking for their first win in their third trip to the tournament.

The Canadian men went 0-3-0 in their first tournament appearance in 1986 in Mexico, outscored 5-0 in losses to France, Hungary and the Soviet Union.

World Cup Draw Pots

Pot 1: Canada (No. 27), U.S (14), Mexico (15), Argentina (1), Spain (2), France (3), England (4), Brazil (No. 5), Portugal (6), Netherlands (7), Belgium (8), Germany (9).

Pot 2: Croatia (10), Morocco (11), Colombia (13), Uruguay (16), Switzerland (17), Japan (18), Senegal (19), Iran (20), South Korea (No. 22), Ecuador (23), Austria (24), Australia (26).

Pot 3: Norway (29), Panama (30), Egypt (34), Algeria (35), Scotland (36), Paraguay (39), Tunisia (40), Ivory Coast (42), Uzbekistan (50), Qatar (51), Saudi Arabia (60), South Africa (61).

Pot 4: Jordan (66), Cabo Verde (68), Ghana (72), Curaçao (82), Haiti (84), New Zealand (86), European Playoff A, B, C and D, FIFA Playoff Tournament 1 and 2

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This report by The Canadian Press was first published Dec. 4., 2025

Neil Davidson, The Canadian Press