'Recoil effect': New Nanos polling shows Liberals may be out of majority territory
Anticipation that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will trigger an election on Sunday has resulted in a “recoil effect” in the Liberals' ballot numbers, possibly moving them out of majority territory, according a survey conducted by Nanos Research.
The survey completed on Thursday night suggests that as the summer-long speculation of an election call shifted towards it looking more certain that Canadians are on the verge of being sent to the polls, voters have been swinging away from the Liberals.
“The latest Nanos tracking that was just completed on Thursday night, suggests that there has been a significant recoil effect against the Liberals. This hot speculation about an election has shifted voters from the Liberal column to the Conservative column, probably because they are upset about the fact that there is an election,” said Nanos Research's Nik Nanos in an interview with CTV News on Friday.
On Thursday sources confirmed to CTV News that Trudeau is expected to launch a federal election campaign on Aug. 15, with the vote set to be held as early as Sept. 20, with those who confirmed the planning indicating that it is still possible that the prime minister could adjust his plans.
When the news broke, Nanos said his daily tracking had the Liberals with “a double digit advantage.”
Now, while the Liberals are still leading in the polls, with 33.4 per cent ballot support, should the election call come this weekend, Nanos said that Trudeau will need a strong answer on day one of the campaign as to why an election is needed now.
“Was there something that you were not able to do?... There's no crisis to merit the triggering of an election, except for the fact that the Liberals want an election. And I think Canadians will probably see through that,” Nanos said.
The survey indicates that Liberal ballot support has dropped by 5.9 per cent from where it was four weeks ago.
The Conservatives appear to have made up some ground in that time, with 28.4 per cent ballot support, up 4.8 per cent from where they were four weeks ago.
“We're in a horse race now. It's no longer about whether the Liberals will win, and if they'll win a majority government. Now it's who will win this election?” Nanos said.
The support for the other four major parties has not shifted as considerably in the last month. The NDP have 20.7 per cent ballot support, the Greens have 7.9 per cent ballot support, the Bloc Quebecois has 6.3 per cent ballot support, and the People’s Party has 1.9 per cent of ballot support.
Nanos said that if this election becomes about Trudeau’s decision to call an early election in order to win a majority—which has widely been suggested a key motivating factor for the Liberals to trigger an election now—“it’ll be bad news for the Liberals.”
Polls conducted over the summer from various public opinion outlets signalled that the Liberals could be within reach of a majority government if a vote was held soon. Though, folks have expressed little enthusiasm to go to the polls, with the COVID-19 case counts once again on an upward trajectory.
Nanos said that had Trudeau called the election a bit earlier, they could have entered the campaign in a more secure electoral standing.
NANOS’ METHODOLOGY
Nanos conducted an RDD dual frame (land-and cell-lines) hybrid telephone and online random survey of 1,004 Canadians, 18 years of age or older, ending Aug. 13, 2021.
The data is based on a four week rolling average where each week the oldest group of 250 interviews is dropped and a new group of 250 is added.
A random telephone survey of 1,000 Canadians is accurate ±3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
IN DEPTH
Budget 2024 prioritizes housing while taxing highest earners, deficit projected at $39.8B
In an effort to level the playing field for young people, in the 2024 federal budget, the government is targeting Canada's highest earners with new taxes in order to help offset billions in new spending to enhance the country's housing supply and social supports.
'One of the greatest': Former prime minister Brian Mulroney commemorated at state funeral
Prominent Canadians, political leaders, and family members remembered former prime minister and Progressive Conservative titan Brian Mulroney as an ambitious and compassionate nation-builder at his state funeral on Saturday.
'Democracy requires constant vigilance' Trudeau testifies at inquiry into foreign election interference in Canada
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau testified Wednesday before the national public inquiry into foreign interference in Canada's electoral processes, following a day of testimony from top cabinet ministers about allegations of meddling in the 2019 and 2021 federal elections. Recap all the prime minister had to say.
As Poilievre sides with Smith on trans restrictions, former Conservative candidate says he's 'playing with fire'
Siding with Alberta Premier Danielle Smith on her proposed restrictions on transgender youth, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre confirmed Wednesday that he is against trans and non-binary minors using puberty blockers.
Supports for passengers, farmers, artists: 7 bills from MPs and Senators to watch in 2024
When parliamentarians return to Ottawa in a few weeks to kick off the 2024 sitting, there are a few bills from MPs and senators that will be worth keeping an eye on, from a 'gutted' proposal to offer a carbon tax break to farmers, to an initiative aimed at improving Canada's DNA data bank.
Opinion
opinion Don Martin: Gusher of Liberal spending won't put out the fire in this dumpster
A Hail Mary rehash of the greatest hits from the Trudeau government’s three-week travelling pony-show, the 2024 federal budget takes aim at reversing the party’s popularity plunge in the under-40 set, writes political columnist Don Martin. But will it work before the next election?
opinion Don Martin: The doctor Trudeau dumped has a prescription for better health care
Political columnist Don Martin sat down with former federal health minister Jane Philpott, who's on a crusade to help fix Canada's broken health care system, and who declined to take any shots at the prime minister who dumped her from caucus.
opinion Don Martin: Trudeau's seeking shelter from the housing storm he helped create
While Justin Trudeau's recent housing announcements are generally drawing praise from experts, political columnist Don Martin argues there shouldn’t be any standing ovations for a prime minister who helped caused the problem in the first place.
opinion Don Martin: Poilievre has the field to himself as he races across the country to big crowds
It came to pass on Thursday evening that the confidentially predictable failure of the Official Opposition non-confidence motion went down with 204 Liberal, BQ and NDP nays to 116 Conservative yeas. But forcing Canada into a federal election campaign was never the point.
opinion Don Martin: How a beer break may have doomed the carbon tax hike
When the Liberal government chopped a planned beer excise tax hike to two per cent from 4.5 per cent and froze future increases until after the next election, says political columnist Don Martin, it almost guaranteed a similar carbon tax move in the offing.
CTVNews.ca Top Stories
4th Indian national arrested, charged with murder of Hardeep Singh Nijjar
Homicide investigators in B.C. say murder charges have been laid against a fourth Indian national in connection to the killing of Sikh activist Hardeep Singh Nijjar outside a Surrey gurdwara last year.
'I am angry': Alberta farmers will continue fight over world class motorsport resort
The rolling hills leading to the hamlet of Rosebud are dotted with sprawling farms and cattle pastures -- and a sign sporting a simple message: No Race Track.
Man ticketed after allegedly trespassing again at Drake's Bridle Path mansion to get his bike
A man who tried to access Drake’s Bridle Path mansion earlier this week returned to the property Saturday and was apprehended again for allegedly trespassing, Toronto police say.
Couple randomly attacked, 1 stabbed, by group of teens in Toronto, police say
A man has been transported to hospital after police say he was stabbed in a random attack carried out by a group of teens in Toronto on Friday night.
Millions of Canadians have been exposed to potentially toxic chemicals, and they're not going anywhere
For decades, North Bay, Ontario's water supply has harboured chemicals associated with liver and developmental issues, cancer and complications with pregnancy. It's far from the only city with that problem.
Biden calls Trump 'unhinged,' says 'something snapped' in former president after he lost 2020 U.S. election
U.S. President Joe Biden on Saturday called Donald Trump “clearly unhinged” and claimed that “something snapped” in the former president after he lost the 2020 election.
Wildfire that forced evacuation of Fort Nelson, B.C., caused by tree falling on wires, mayor says
The wildfire that prompted the evacuation of more than 3,000 people near Fort Nelson, B.C., was caused by a tree falling on wires, according to the municipality's mayor.
Switzerland's Nemo wins 68th Eurovision Song Contest
Swiss singer Nemo won the 68th Eurovision Song Contest on Saturday night with 'The Code,' an operatic ode to the singer’s journey toward embracing their nongender identity.
IN PICTURES Northern lights dance across the night sky in southern Ont.
From London, to Grand Bend, Collingwood and Guelph, here are some highlights of Friday night and Saturday morning's northern lights display.
Local Spotlight
From outer space? Sask. farmers baffled after discovering strange wreckage in field
A family of fifth generation farmers from Ituna, Sask. are trying to find answers after discovering several strange objects lying on their land.
Wilfrid Laurier football player drafted despite only playing 27 games in his entire life
A Listowel, Ont. man, drafted by the Hamilton Tigercats last week, is also getting looks from the NFL, despite only playing 27 games of football in his life.
Federal government bans watercraft from Manitoba lake popular with tourists
The threat of zebra mussels has prompted the federal government to temporarily ban watercraft from a Manitoba lake popular with tourists.
Toronto-area dessert shop featured by Keith Lee forced to move after zoning complaint
A small Ajax dessert shop that recently received a glowing review from celebrity food critic Keith Lee is being forced to move after a zoning complaint was made following the social media influencer’s visit last month.
'Oh Crap!' New exhibit at Canada Science and Technology Museum explores human waste
The Canada Science and Technology Museum is inviting visitors to explore their poop. A new exhibition opens at the Ottawa museum on Friday called, 'Oh Crap! Rethinking human waste.'
Regina police hope new biometric monitoring system will save lives in detention facility
The Regina Police Service says it is the first in Saskatchewan and possibly Canada to implement new technology in its detention facility that will offer real-time monitoring of detainees’ vital health metrics.
Her SUV was stolen in Montreal. A Good Samaritan on Facebook helped her get it back
Just as she had feared, a restaurant owner from eastern Quebec who visited Montreal had her SUV stolen, but says it was all thanks to the kindness of strangers on the internet — not the police — that she got it back.
Vancouver and Edmonton's mayors bet on who will win Round 2 of the playoffs. Here's what's at stake
The stakes have been set for a bet between Vancouver and Edmonton's mayors on who will win Round 2 of the Stanley Cup playoffs.
'No other life taken': Mother leads ATV helmet drive to honour daughter's legacy
A grieving mother is hosting a helmet drive in the hopes of protecting children on Manitoba First Nations from a similar tragedy that killed her daughter.