Don Martin's prediction on whether Trudeau will stick around for another election
Don Martin's prediction on whether Trudeau will stick around for another election
After decades of mostly wrong personal predictions for the year ahead, it’s time to consult the best brains in Canadian politics for their view of Major Events 2023.
There’s a handful of former senior staffers, a former party leader, a top business voice and a veteran parliamentary observer in this Very Smart People mix, all granted anonymity so they can deliver fearless crystal-ball insights to improve on my usual never-came-to-pass list.
The respected business leader sees a psychological recession coming in 2023 driven by the fact that “if everybody says there’s going to be a recession, there’s a recession. The adjustments we make to prepare for it trigger what we’re hoping to avoid.”
The government’s key budget focus next year will be to compete against the U.S. President Joe Biden’s frenzy of spending aimed at luring investment back to America.
“They’re creating a giant vacuuming sound for Canadian investment and talent.”
A former party leader studying the Alberta landscape says that province’s brand-new premier should already prepare for a job change. “Danielle Smith won’t survive and may even exit before the election (scheduled for May),” they predicted.
There’s a caveat however in that Smith has surrounded herself with decent staff, which could save her from herself.
A widely respected parliamentary watcher with four decades on the Hill agreed, saying the government needs to deliver a match-the-money budget to keep industry and investment in this country. “If we don’t get in front of this train, we’ll be screwed.”
He also predicted the NDP, weary of not seeing a popularity payoff from propping up the government, will cancel the deal. And Trudeau will announce he’s not seeking re-election in late fall.
A former top Liberal staffer sees a ‘substantive cabinet shuffle this winter” with Public Safety Minister Marco Mendicino getting the boot for his uneven performance, particularly surrounding the trucker convoy.
She sees recent byelection winner and former Ontario finance minister Charles Sousa getting the nod for a senior cabinet job, although another white male minister from Toronto is seen as problematic.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau stays on, but there’s no election next year even though sitting Liberal MPs have been told to declare themselves standing for re-election by March 1.
A politically neutral veteran strategist sees a constitutional “fracas” between Ottawa and “attention-seeking premiers preying on malcontents” erupting on the horizon while raging epidemics in childrens’ hospitals will force changes in the health care system.
He sees a spring 2023 election, particularly if the NDP’s popularity rises to seat-gaining levels, because the Conservatives are itching to take on Trudeau before he opts to retire.
A long-time Conservative insider says Alberta Premier Danielle Smith will make a few more mind-blowing missteps, which gets her MLAs grumbling she’s ‘not ready for prime time”.
But, he notes in an interesting twist, should Smith rise from the grave and win the May election, watch for Alberta NDP leader Rachel Notley to quit and be on standby as frontrunner to replace federal NDP leader Jagmeet Singh should he decide fatherhood is more fun than leadership.
A retired staffer under federal and provincial ministers predicts Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre will have an uncharacteristically calm year as he aims to become a “younger, perhaps more personally popular and fluently bilingual Stephen Harper.”
He sees little change in Trudeau’s top-down arrogant style of leadership because the PMO believes it’s on track to win again under the status quo.
As for his safest prediction, my source says Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland will quit to become secretary general of NATO next fall, the better to cleanse herself of widespread Trudeau loathing before a Liberal leadership bid in the future.
And if you switch to not-as-smart prognosticators, specifically me, look for Trudeau to shuffle ministers linked to the trucker convoy ahead of a critical February report by inquiry Commissioner Paul Rouleau.
I agree Chrystia Freeland will land the top NATO gig and expect Trudeau will take his walk in the snow toward retirement in early 2024. Which, given by usual batting average, means Trudeau will stick around for another election with Freeland by his side and refrain from any cabinet changes ahead of a favourable Rouleau report.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has announced that he’s invited premiers to Ottawa for a 'working meeting' to discuss a health-care funding deal, on Feb. 7.
As the minority Liberals plot out their policy moves ahead of the 2023 parliamentary sitting, weighing heavily are commitments Prime Minister Justin Trudeau made to NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh that have to be acted on this year in order to uphold the two-party confidence-and-supply deal. Here is what needs to get done to keep the deal alive.
Governor of the Bank of Canada Tiff Macklem says he thinks Canada is 'turning the corner' on inflation, but he isn't ruling out that the country could enter a 'mild recession.' In an English-language broadcast exclusive interview with CTV National News Ottawa Bureau Chief Joyce Napier, Macklem encouraged Canadians to prepare a 'buffer' to withstand 'tougher times.'
After six weeks, more than 70 witnesses, and the submission of more than 7,000 documents into evidence, the public hearing portion of the Public Order Emergency Commission wrapped up on Friday.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau sat down with CTV National News Chief News Anchor and Senior Editor Omar Sachedina for a year-end interview to reflect on the political shifts experienced in 2022, and to contemplate the challenges ahead in 2023. Here is a full transcript of the interview.
Like Jacinda Ardern, Justin Trudeau’s early handling of the pandemic was a reassuring communications exercise where harsh isolation measures went down easier with a hefty helping of government support, Don Martin writes in an exclusive opinion column for CTVNews.ca. 'But like the New Zealand Prime Minister, the Canadian PM's best days are arguably behind him. '
The Standing Committee on Transport gathered Thursday with MPs demanding an explanation for how that highly unusual Canadian winter combination of heavy snow and cold temperatures which delayed or cancelled thousands of post-pandemic reunions. What they got was a gold-medal finger-pointing performance, writes Don Martin in an exclusive opinion column for CTVNews.ca.
From a more coherent public health and carbon tax position, to cutting the 'Freedom Convoy' connection and smiling more, Pierre Poilievre has seven New Year's resolutions to woo the voters in 2023, writes Don Martin in an exclusive column for CTVNews.ca.
Hope was in short supply just ten weeks ago on this 10-kilometre spit of sand at the end of the migration route for tens of thousands of Canadian snowbirds, Don Martin writes in an exclusive column for CTVNews.ca from Florida's Fort Myers Beach. But there are signs, he says, things may return to normal much faster than anyone expected.
OPS and Ottawa Bylaw officers issued 192 parking tickets and 67 Provincial Offences Notices in downtown Ottawa this weekend, as people gathered marked the one-year anniversary of the 'Freedom Convoy'.
While RSV and flu cases steadily decline in Canada, the World Health Organization is set to announce on Monday whether it still considers COVID-19 a global health emergency, but one infectious disease specialist says we still need to keep an eye on the coronavirus.
YouTube superstar MrBeast is making the world clearer -- for at least 1,000 people. The content creator's latest stunt is paying for cataract removal for 1,000 people who were blind or near-blind but could not afford the surgery.
Former Mississauga, Ont. mayor Hazel McCallion, nicknamed 'Hurricane Hazel,' has died. She was 101 years old. Premier Doug Ford said McCallion died peacefully at her home early Sunday morning.
Actor Annie Wersching, best known for playing FBI agent Renee Walker in the series '24' and providing the voice for Tess in the video game 'The Last of Us' has died. She was 45.
On a bleak, windswept hillside in northeast Ukraine, three young boys recently discovered a cell phone signal, something difficult to find in their region since Russia invaded their country. and they've set up a makeshift school around the signal.
A Russian teenager must wear an ankle bracelet while she is under house arrest after she was charged over social media posts that authorities say discredit the Russian army and justify terrorism.
Roughly one in 200 babies born in Canada today will have congenital cytomegalovirus, a virus that can lead to hearing loss, intellectual disability or vision loss. But with only two provinces screening newborns for CMV, one father is asking other health-care systems to do more.
An emotional ceremony took place today marking the sixth anniversary of the Quebec City mosque shooting, held for the first time in the same room where many of the victims were killed. Six men died that night: Mamadou Tanou Barry, Ibrahima Barry, Khaled Belkacemi, Abdelkrim Hassane, Azzeddine Soufiane and Aboubaker Thabti were gunned down not long after evening prayers at the suburban Quebec City mosque.
Anti-poverty activists are praising the Quebec basic income program as a good step toward helping people meet their basic needs — but say strict eligibility criteria exclude many of the province’s lowest-income residents.
An emotional ceremony took place today marking the sixth anniversary of the Quebec City mosque shooting, held for the first time in the same room where many of the victims were killed. Six men died that night: Mamadou Tanou Barry, Ibrahima Barry, Khaled Belkacemi, Abdelkrim Hassane, Azzeddine Soufiane and Aboubaker Thabti were gunned down not long after evening prayers at the suburban Quebec City mosque.
OPS and Ottawa Bylaw officers issued 192 parking tickets and 67 Provincial Offences Notices in downtown Ottawa this weekend, as people gathered marked the one-year anniversary of the 'Freedom Convoy'.
Former Mississauga, Ont. mayor Hazel McCallion, nicknamed 'Hurricane Hazel,' has died. She was 101 years old. Premier Doug Ford said McCallion died peacefully at her home early Sunday morning.
Late Mississauga Mayor Hazel McCallion is being remembered for the many ways she contributed to not only to the city she led for 36 years, but also the province and country following her death on Sunday morning.
After years of reports and allegations detailing a 'toxic' workplace, Canada's RCMP says it is trying to evolve, focusing on diversity in its organization and repairing relationships with communities as it marks its 150th anniversary.
Ukraine needs new weapons and faster deliveries to confront a 'very tough' situation of constant attacks by Russian forces in the eastern Donetsk region, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Sunday.
Turkiye's president has suggested his country might approve Finland's application for NATO membership before taking any action on Sweden's, while the Turkish government issued a travel warning for European countries due to anti-Turkish demonstrations and what it described as Islamophobia.
On a bleak, windswept hillside in northeast Ukraine, three young boys recently discovered a cell phone signal, something difficult to find in their region since Russia invaded their country. and they've set up a makeshift school around the signal.
A Missouri mother who reported that her infant twins were stillborn has been convicted of manslaughter. Maya Caston, 28, was convicted of second-degree involuntary manslaughter and two counts of child endangerment.
Friends and volunteers gathered Sunday at Kyiv's St Sophia's Cathedral to say goodbye to Andrew Bagshaw, who was killed in Ukraine while trying to evacuate people from a front-line town. This comes as Russian forces heavily shelled the city of Kherson, killing three people and wounding six others, the regional administration said.
Voters in Tunisia massively shunned parliamentary elections seen as an important test for their president and their country's troubled democracy, according to preliminary turnout figures Sunday. Independent observers reported scattered violations.
Health Minister Jean-Yves Duclos insists the federal government is going to 'work flexibly' with the provinces on the terms of a possible health-care funding deal and avoid 'micromanaging' how they deliver health care to Canadians.
The federal government has set aside billions of dollars to quickly build affordable housing across the country, but delays in construction suggest many of the projects approved for funding are missing their deadlines.
Members of Parliament are making their way back to Ottawa ahead of resuming sitting on Monday, as the city prepares to mark the one-year anniversary of the arrival of 'Freedom Convoy' protesters.
While RSV and flu cases steadily decline in Canada, the World Health Organization is set to announce on Monday whether it still considers COVID-19 a global health emergency, but one infectious disease specialist says we still need to keep an eye on the coronavirus.
Roughly one in 200 babies born in Canada today will have congenital cytomegalovirus, a virus that can lead to hearing loss, intellectual disability or vision loss. But with only two provinces screening newborns for CMV, one father is asking other health-care systems to do more.
YouTube superstar MrBeast is making the world clearer -- for at least 1,000 people. The content creator's latest stunt is paying for cataract removal for 1,000 people who were blind or near-blind but could not afford the surgery.
YouTube superstar MrBeast is making the world clearer -- for at least 1,000 people. The content creator's latest stunt is paying for cataract removal for 1,000 people who were blind or near-blind but could not afford the surgery.
What looks like a giant teddy bear’s face peering into space from the surface of Mars is actually a satellite image of some craters and a circular fracture, scientists say.
Nvidia Corp Chief Executive Officer Jensen Huang on Tuesday said that the burgeoning field of artificial intelligence will create powerful tools that require legal regulation and social norms that have yet to be worked out.
Actor Annie Wersching, best known for playing FBI agent Renee Walker in the series '24' and providing the voice for Tess in the video game 'The Last of Us' has died. She was 45.
Barrett Strong, one of Motown's founding artists and most gifted songwriters who sang lead on the company's breakthrough single 'Money (That's What I Want)' and later collaborated with Norman Whitfield on such classics as 'I Heard It Through the Grapevine,' 'War' and 'Papa Was a Rollin' Stone,' has died. He was 81.
A solo exhibition at the Art Gallery of Ontario in Toronto is celebrating 50 years of David Ruben Piqtoukun's work. It features more than 60 pieces by the veteran Inuvialuk sculptor.
Federal prosecutors are trying to prohibit FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried from privately contacting current and former employees of the bankrupt cryptocurrency exchange to prevent potential witness tampering in a criminal case accusing him of bilking investors and customers.
Italy's prime minister visited Libya for talks Saturday with officials from the country's west-based government focusing on energy and migration, top issues for Italy and the European Union. Libya is the third North African country Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni visited over the last two weeks as she seeks to secure new supplies of natural gas.
A pair of senior U.S. senators is urging the Biden administration to get tough with Canada for "flouting" obligations to its North American trade partners.
When 1990s suede fringe jackets started making a comeback last year, a U.K.-based vintage clothing company decided to order four tonnes of suede from a supplier in the United States. Along with that shipment came a once-in-a lifetime discovery.
Pet fish playing a video game in Japan managed to log on to the Nintendo Switch store, change their owner's avatar, set up a Pay Pal account and rack up a credit card bill.
The San Antonio Zoo is offering a special Valentine's Day greeting for exes who just won't bug off. For US$10, the zoo will name a cockroach after your not-so-special someone and feed it to an animal -- a cold, but direct message that you're no longer interested.
Patrick Mahomes scrambled for a first down on his badly sprained right ankle, then was shoved late out of bounds by Joseph Ossai, giving Harrison Butker a chance to kick a 45-yard field goal with 3 seconds remaining and give the Kansas City Chiefs a 23-20 victory over the Cincinnati Bengals in the AFC title game Sunday night.
Jalen Hurts had one of Philadelphia's four rushing touchdowns and the Eagles soared into the Super Bowl, forcing both of San Francisco's quarterbacks out of the game with injuries and beating the wounded 49ers 31-7 in the NFC championship game on Sunday.
Hyundai cars in Canada don't have the same anti-theft issue compared to those in the United States, a company spokesperson says, following reports that two American auto insurers are refusing to write policies for older models.
Progressive and State Farm, two of America's largest auto insurers, are refusing to write policies in certain cities for some older Hyundai and Kia models that have been deemed too easy to steal, according to one of the insurance companies and media reports.
