Documents give glimpse of Finance Department's outlook, warnings on inflation
Newly released documents show the Finance Department last year warned that the pace of price increases could gain speed, even as the Liberal government and central bank maintained that inflationary pressures were temporary.
In a briefing note to Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland from the spring, officials outlined "the case for runaway inflation" as part of a larger review of consumer prices.
While the majority of pressures at the time were the result of comparing prices to lows seen one year earlier during the first wave
of the COVID-19 pandemic, the briefing note says inflation readings could go up or there were "plausible upside risks to the inflation outlook over the medium-term."
The note was written after Statistics Canada reported the annual rate of inflation hit 3.6 per cent in May 2021. The rate has risen even higher since.
The document is one of many on inflation that the Finance Department created last year, and obtained by The Canadian Press under the Access to Information Act.
In a June presentation, Finance officials noted that inflation readings would remain elevated in 2021, relying on forecasters who figured supply chain issues inflating prices would dissipate to prevent runaway inflation.
The annual inflation rate hit 4.7 per cent in November. RBC senior economist Nathan Janzen said December's reading may be a touch higher when Statistics Canada releases its inflation report on Wednesday.
A Bank of Canada survey released Monday noted that inflation was the biggest economic concern among consumers, who also expect inflation to remain near five per cent for the year.
The inflation rate for 2021 is likely to be double what the Finance Department relied on in last year's first quarter survey of forecasters, said Stephen Tapp, chief economist with the Canadian Chamber of Commerce.
"That's probably one of the biggest misses you're going to have on record," Tapp said. "This has been the biggest positive shock to inflation that I can remember by far in my forecasting career. So it's huge."
Inflation rates are also now above where they would have been if the consumer price index had stayed on two-per-cent trajectory, meaning prices have now gone beyond just making up for the drops seen in 2020, said University of Calgary economist Trevor Tombe.
Wages haven't kept up at the same pace, creating a particular crunch for low-income households who can't as easily handle jumps in prices for things like gasoline and food, said Tu Nguyen, an economist with accounting firm RSM Canada.
Supply chain disruptions have been a key reason for rising prices.
In a question period note from June, the department suggested Freeland answer questions about inflation by saying that the government's budget would "help rebuild and boost supply capacity, increasing the space for the economy to grow without the risk of high inflation."
The start of 2022 has seen a backlog of ships unable to unload cargo -- supply logistics company Flexport counted more than 120 vessels waiting to dock at the busy ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. Freight booking company Freightos also said shipping container costs remain eight to nine times above pre-pandemic levels, even with a recent decline.
Conservative finance critic Pierre Poilievre said Tuesday that the finance minister and government have done nothing to help counter inflation, and plenty to worsen it. He said he plans to ask Freeland about the department's views on inflation when the minister testifies at a Commons finance committee study on inflation.
"Instead of heeding the warnings of her own department, she has poured more inflationary fuel on the fire in the form of higher spending, deficits and taxes," Poilievre said.
The concern that Finance officials flagged in the spring was whether temporary issues affecting inflation, such as supply-chain issues, "will last long enough to be perceived to be permanent."
It's why the department underlined the need to monitor expectations lest they create a cycle of price increases, as companies pass on higher costs to consumers, that then puts pressure on wages to keep up.
Consumers and businesses in the Bank of Canada survey, conducted before the latest wave of COVID-19, expected high inflation over this year and next.
"That will be very important to keep an eye on this year: if people start to behave in a way that expects higher inflation," Tombe said. "If they do, then that may be a force that creates the very thing that they were worried about."
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Jan. 18, 2022.
IN DEPTH
Budget 2024 prioritizes housing while taxing highest earners, deficit projected at $39.8B
In an effort to level the playing field for young people, in the 2024 federal budget, the government is targeting Canada's highest earners with new taxes in order to help offset billions in new spending to enhance the country's housing supply and social supports.
'One of the greatest': Former prime minister Brian Mulroney commemorated at state funeral
Prominent Canadians, political leaders, and family members remembered former prime minister and Progressive Conservative titan Brian Mulroney as an ambitious and compassionate nation-builder at his state funeral on Saturday.
'Democracy requires constant vigilance' Trudeau testifies at inquiry into foreign election interference in Canada
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau testified Wednesday before the national public inquiry into foreign interference in Canada's electoral processes, following a day of testimony from top cabinet ministers about allegations of meddling in the 2019 and 2021 federal elections. Recap all the prime minister had to say.
As Poilievre sides with Smith on trans restrictions, former Conservative candidate says he's 'playing with fire'
Siding with Alberta Premier Danielle Smith on her proposed restrictions on transgender youth, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre confirmed Wednesday that he is against trans and non-binary minors using puberty blockers.
Supports for passengers, farmers, artists: 7 bills from MPs and Senators to watch in 2024
When parliamentarians return to Ottawa in a few weeks to kick off the 2024 sitting, there are a few bills from MPs and senators that will be worth keeping an eye on, from a 'gutted' proposal to offer a carbon tax break to farmers, to an initiative aimed at improving Canada's DNA data bank.
Opinion
opinion Don Martin: Gusher of Liberal spending won't put out the fire in this dumpster
A Hail Mary rehash of the greatest hits from the Trudeau government’s three-week travelling pony-show, the 2024 federal budget takes aim at reversing the party’s popularity plunge in the under-40 set, writes political columnist Don Martin. But will it work before the next election?
opinion Don Martin: The doctor Trudeau dumped has a prescription for better health care
Political columnist Don Martin sat down with former federal health minister Jane Philpott, who's on a crusade to help fix Canada's broken health care system, and who declined to take any shots at the prime minister who dumped her from caucus.
opinion Don Martin: Trudeau's seeking shelter from the housing storm he helped create
While Justin Trudeau's recent housing announcements are generally drawing praise from experts, political columnist Don Martin argues there shouldn’t be any standing ovations for a prime minister who helped caused the problem in the first place.
opinion Don Martin: Poilievre has the field to himself as he races across the country to big crowds
It came to pass on Thursday evening that the confidentially predictable failure of the Official Opposition non-confidence motion went down with 204 Liberal, BQ and NDP nays to 116 Conservative yeas. But forcing Canada into a federal election campaign was never the point.
opinion Don Martin: How a beer break may have doomed the carbon tax hike
When the Liberal government chopped a planned beer excise tax hike to two per cent from 4.5 per cent and froze future increases until after the next election, says political columnist Don Martin, it almost guaranteed a similar carbon tax move in the offing.
CTVNews.ca Top Stories
Deadly six-vehicle crash on Highway 400 sparked by road rage incident
One person was killed in a six-vehicle crash on Highway 400 in Innisfil Friday evening.
'Of course, yes': Poland latest European country with interest in Canadian LNG
The President of Poland says his country would 'of course' be interested in purchasing Canadian liquefied natural gas if it were available, while the Canadian federal government has said it is 'not interested' in subsidizing future projects.
Dozens in Italy give a fascist salute on the anniversary of Mussolini's execution
Dozens of people raised their arms in the fascist salute and shouted a fascist chant during ceremonies Sunday to honor Italian dictator Benito Mussolini on the 79th anniversary of his execution.
Here's where Canadians are living abroad: report
A recent report sheds light on Canadians living abroad--estimated at around four million people in 2016—and the public policies that impact them.
Chants of 'shame on you' greet guests arriving for the annual White House correspondents' dinner
An election-year roast of U.S. President Joe Biden before journalists, celebrities and politicians at the annual White House correspondents' dinner Saturday.
Britney Spears settles long-running legal dispute with estranged father, finally bringing ultimate end to conservatorship
Britney Spears has reached a settlement with her estranged father more than two years after the court-ordered termination of a conservatorship that had given him control of her life, their attorneys said.
Invasive and toxic hammerhead worms make themselves at home in Ontario
Ontario is now home to an invasive and toxic worm species that can grow up to three feet long and can be dangerous to small animals and pets.
Health minister 'deeply appreciative' of doctors but capital gains changes here to stay
Health Minister Mark Holland says while he is 'deeply appreciative' of the work doctors in Canada do, the federal government has no plans to scrap the proposed capital gains tax changes outlined in the latest budget, despite opposition from the Canadian Medical Association.
A top Qatari official urges Israel and Hamas to do more to reach a ceasefire deal
A senior Qatari official has urged both Israel and Hamas to show "more commitment and more seriousness" in ceasefire negotiations in interviews with Israeli media, as pressure builds on both sides to move toward a deal that would set Israeli hostages free and bring potential respite in the nearly seven-month-long war in Gaza.
Local Spotlight
DonAir force takes over at Oilers playoff games
As if a 4-0 Edmonton Oilers lead in Game 1 of their playoff series with the Los Angeles Kings wasn't good enough, what was announced at Rogers Place during the next TV timeout nearly blew the roof off the downtown arena.
'It was instant karma': Viral video captures failed theft attempt in Nanaimo, B.C.
Mounties in Nanaimo, B.C., say two late-night revellers are lucky their allegedly drunken antics weren't reported to police after security cameras captured the men trying to steal a heavy sign from a downtown business.
Fergus, Ont. man feels nickel-and-dimed for $0.05 property tax bill
A property tax bill is perplexing a small townhouse community in Fergus, Ont.
Twins from Toronto were Canada's top two female finishers at this year's Boston Marathon
When identical twin sisters Kim and Michelle Krezonoski were invited to compete against some of the world’s most elite female runners at last week’s Boston Marathon, they were in disbelief.
Mystery surrounds giant custom Canucks jerseys worn by Lions Gate Bridge statues
The giant stone statues guarding the Lions Gate Bridge have been dressed in custom Vancouver Canucks jerseys as the NHL playoffs get underway.
'I'm committed': Oilers fan skips haircuts for 10 years waiting for Stanley Cup win
A local Oilers fan is hoping to see his team cut through the postseason, so he can cut his hair.
'It's not my father's body!' Wrong man sent home after death on family vacation in Cuba
A family from Laval, Que. is looking for answers... and their father's body. He died on vacation in Cuba and authorities sent someone else's body back to Canada.
'Once is too many times': Education assistants facing rising violence in classrooms
A former educational assistant is calling attention to the rising violence in Alberta's classrooms.
What is capital gains tax? How is it going to affect the economy and the younger generations?
The federal government says its plan to increase taxes on capital gains is aimed at wealthy Canadians to achieve “tax fairness.”