Carney’s Liberals secure majority government, clinching 3 byelections after late night win in Quebec

Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberals secured a majority government Monday following byelection wins in two Toronto-area ridings, Scarborough Southwest and University-Rosedale.

Then in the early morning on Tuesday, just after midnight ET, they won the Quebec riding of Terrebonne, where the Liberals and Bloc Quebecois were neck-and-neck.

The result in Ontario was largely expected. Both of them are considered Liberal strongholds. Physician and health-care executive Danielle Martin took University-Rosedale, and former provincial NDP deputy leader Doly Begum won Scarborough Southwest. Tatiana Auguste clinched the win for the Liberals in Quebec, taking a traditional Bloc Quebecois riding for the Liberals.

Here’s how the byelections unfolded:

Liberals win nail-biting race in Terrebonne

The federal Liberals scored a hat trick on Monday, clinching wins in three byelections taking them well into majority territory in the House of Commons. After a nail-biting race in Terrebonne, CTV News has projected that Liberal candidate Tatiana Auguste has won the race.

Auguste and the Bloc Québécois candidate, Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné, were within a few hundred votes of each other throughout the evening, setting the stage for another close race after the 2025 election.

A few minutes after midnight Tuesday, the Liberals had a much wider lead this time around, with Auguste winning a 731-vote lead ahead of Sinclair-Desgagné. Auguste won by just a single vote in the last general election.

Voter turnout hovered at 50 per cent in Terrebonne with 46,369 of the 91,344 registered electors casting a ballot, a huge lead compared to turnout rates in the other two byelections in Toronto. In Scarborough Southwest, it was 33 per cent, while in University—Rosedale voter turnout was the lowest at 31 per cent.

Joe Lofaro, CTVNewsMontreal.ca journalist

Poilievre: Majority through ‘backroom deals’

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre lamented the Liberal wins as a ‘cynical power grab’ on X Monday evening.

“The Carney Liberals did not win a majority government through a general election or today’s by-elections. Instead, it was won through backroom deals with politicians who betrayed the people who voted for them,” said the opposition leader.

Poilievre is referring to the five floor crossers – all but one of which are former Conservatives – who gave the Liberals enough seats in the House of Commons to clinch a majority tonight.

Stephen Harper-era cabinet member and CTV News political commentator James Moore reacted to the statement, saying Poilievre’s argument is fair.

But, he added, “it doesn’t really matter, does it?”

In a world rife with instability, “(Canadians) clearly aspire for the comfort in a majority government,” Moore argued.

But, “there is a future where Donald Trump is not the president,” he said. “Look to the horizon.”

“Don’t look to the next polls. Look to 2029.”

In his post, Poilievre vowed “Canadians will reclaim the country we know and love.”

Luca Caruso-Moro, CTVNews.ca journalist

‘There’s a lot of people who still believe in him’

CTV News Ottawa Bureau Chief Graham Richardson says Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre still retains strong support among his base, but faces questions about weakening performance.

“To all the millions of conservatives who voted for him and for the party, he’s in a position where there’s a lot of people who still believe in him,” Richardson said, adding that leadership perception plays a major role in how voters respond.

“Politics is kind of like television. The frame sets around you if you’re a leader, and once it’s on, it’s hard to shake off, and so I think he’s trying to slightly shake it off by keeping his base.”

Richardson pointed to steep drops in support in Terrebonne as a potential warning sign. Late Monday night the Conservatives sat at just over 3 per cent of the vote share in the riding, albeit with under 40 per cent of polls counted. Compare that with the 18 per cent of the vote share they won in the last federal election.

“I was wondering about that big return for them, that 18 per cent in the general, that’s big in that riding … that vote disappeared. So, if that’s a trend around the country, that’s obviously a problem,” he said. “Is he further away from that now tonight than he was before the by elections? I would argue that.”

Tammy Ibrahimpoor, CTVNews.ca national digital producer

Carney congratulates winners

Prime Minister Mark Carney congratulated newly elected Scarborough Southwest MP Doly Begum and University-Rosedale MP Danielle Martin on social media.

“Doly has fought fiercely and effectively to build a better future for her community, and her tireless voice and experience will help build a stronger and more just Canada for all,” he wrote.

Regarding Martin, he wrote she had “spent her career building better public health care for Torontonians and all Canadians,” referencing her career in family medicine and as a health-care executive.

“Now she’s bringing her experience and determination to the House of Commons, and our country will be stronger for it.”

Luca Caruso-Moro, CTVNews.ca journalist

Conservative support at 3.3% in Terrebonne: Nanos

CTV News official pollster Nik Nanos says early results in Terrebonne show Conservative support is sharply lower in comparison to the last federal election.

“When we look at the riding of Terrebonne, Conservative support is at 3.3 per cent, a far cry from 18 per cent, so the big question is, where are those Conservative voters? Did they stay home? If they went out to vote, who did they vote for?” he told CTV News.

Nanos said the numbers will likely prompt internal questions and could signal broader challenges for the party and Pierre Poilievre.

“If you’re a Conservative strategist and you’re looking at this number in Terrebonne … you’re going to be asking yourself questions, because this is just another signal,” he said. “I think it’s probably fair to say that Pierre Poilievre will not do as well tonight as he did do in the last federal election in these three ridings, and the big question is how will his caucus and how will strategists receive that?”

Tammy Ibrahimpoor, CTVNews.ca national digital producer

Big crowd in Scarborough

Liberal supporters are waiting for Scarborough Southwest winner Doly Begum to take the podium. There’s lots of excitement as supporters chant, “Doly, Doly, Doly” as they await her arrival.

Adrian Ghobrial, Senior Correspondent, CTV National News

Danielle Martin: Liberals earned ‘even more powerful mandate’

In a speech to supporters at her election night party in downtown Toronto, Liberal Danielle Martin says that with two byelection wins in Toronto, Prime Minister Mark Carney has “earned an even more powerful mandate to continue building a better Canada.

“This is not a mandate to be quiet. It is not a mandate to take our time. It is a mandate to get to work. On housing, on affordability, on health care, on climate change, on infrastructure and on the future of our economy and the public services that are more important to this country than ever,” she said.

Martin appears to have secured more than 63 per cent of the vote in University-Rosedale with about half of polls reporting as of 10:15 p.m. ET.

She says that she is “extremely humbled” to represent the voters of University-Rosedale and be given an opportunity to “build on the legacy” of “the incomparable Chrystia Freeland.”

Chris Fox, CP24.com journalist

Close race in Terrebonne as count continues

The Quebec riding of Terrebonne is still a close race.

With 28 per cent of polls reported, the Liberals have a lead of nearly 300 votes over the Bloc Québécois.

Liberal candidate Tatiana Auguste and the Bloc Québécois’ Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné have seesawed back and forth all evening. Just after 10 p.m. ET, the Liberals had secured 7,203 votes, ahead of the Bloc’s 6,911 votes.

The Conservatives are trailing behind with 385 votes.

Counting the votes is expected to take longer than the other two byelections in Ontario due to the high number of candidates — 48 — on the ballot in Terrebonne.

Joe Lofaro, CTVNewsMontreal.ca journalist

Liberals win in Scarborough Southwest

Liberal Doly Begum has won in Scarborough Southwest, CTV News projects.

With more than 26 per cent of polls reporting, Begum has a nearly 2,300 vote lead as of 10 p.m.

With Begum’s victory, the Liberals have won both byelections in Toronto ridings, securing a majority government.

Chris Fox, CP24.com and CTV News Toronto managing digital producer

Carney Liberals win majority

Nearly a year after last April’s minority government win and on the heels of courting five opposition MPs to cross the floor, Carney’s grip on power just got tighter.

In University-Rosedale, Ont., Canadians have voted, and Liberal candidate Danielle Martin won the party’s 172nd seat in the House of Commons.

Rachel Aiello, National Correspondent, CTV News and Spencer Van Dyk, CTVNews.ca journalist. Read the full story here.

A ‘more powerful mandate’

Danielle Martin addresses supporters at her campaign HQ, saying “tonight Mark Carney and the Liberal government have a more powerful mandate to build a better Canada.”

She is joined onstage by family members and supporters including former MP Bob Rae and Minister of AI & Digital Innovation Evan Solomon.

Heather Wright, CTV News senior correspondent

Downtown Toronto riding leaning red in early results

With 13 out of 153 polls reporting, the Liberals are showing a strong lead in the Toronto riding of University-Rosedale, the riding previously held by Chrystia Freeland.

At the moment, Liberal candidate Danielle Martin has 65.8 per cent of the vote. NDP candidate Serena Purdy is trailing, with 16.4 per cent and Conservative Don Hodgson has 11.8 per cent.

The early results mirror the strong lead the Liberals are showing in the other Toronto riding up for grabs tonight, Scarborough Southwest.

Joshua Freeman, CP24.com journalist

‘A smile on our faces’: Bloc optimistic

The Bloc Quebecois is confident in their chances in Terrebonne, Que.

Bloc Quebecois Deputy Leader Christine Normandin said, given the expected delays in counting the vote, Bloc supporters are in for “a long night,” but said she believes they’ll go to sleep “with a smile on our faces.”

After losing in last year’s election, she says the party gained the “space” to speak to its supporters about local priorities – housing, the elderly, and highspeed rail, for example.

“People really understood the importance of voting this time. They were enthusiastic,” she added.

Luca Caruso-Moro, CTVNews.ca journalist

Solomon: Majority won’t change approach

Liberal cabinet minister Evan Solomon is attending an election night party for Danielle Martin in University-Rosedale in downtown Toronto.

Solomon notes that Martin is a “world-class” candidate and the focus is very much “on winning tonight.”

He adds that if the Liberals do secure a majority government it will not change Prime Minister Mark Carey’s approach to governing.

“We are governing and I think the prime minister is leading to build this country strong. He says it everyday: to empower citizens, to protect the things we love, our public healthcare, our communities. That plan is not going to change,” he said.

“We are governing together to lead the country in as non-partisan and non-divisive a way as possible.

“We are trying to unite people and I think people are coming to(Carney’s) message, they are responding to a message that is really not about political games and partisanship.”

Chris Fox, CP24.com and CTV News Toronto managing digital producer

‘Liberals shouldn’t win Terrebonne historically’

Public policy adviser and former Conservative cabinet minister James Moore says the Quebec riding of Terrebonne has historically favoured the Bloc Québécois, making any potential Liberal breakthrough a sign of shifting political dynamics.

“Liberals shouldn’t win Terrebonne historically,” he told CTV News, adding that changing voter attitudes may be opening the door to different outcomes.

“It says something about the shifts that have happened on the ground there as a consequence of global affairs and people being prepared to consider new options,” Moore said.

He added that those changes are being shaped by broader geopolitical uncertainty like the perceived and real threat of Donald Trump, and also “the shake up in Quebec provincial politics, where you have five political parties that will have reasonable basis of support that are all in play there.”

Tammy Ibrahimpoor, CTVNews.ca national digital producer

Liberals leading in early results in Scarborough Southwest

Early results in the Toronto riding of Scarborough Southwest show Liberal candidate Doly Begum with a strong lead.

With five of 188 polls reporting, Begum currently has 68.4 per cent of counted votes, followed by 12.4 per cent for her closest rival, Conservative candidate Diana Filipova.

Images from Begum’s election night party show smiling supporters watching the results come in.

While the results so far represent less than three per cent of the vote, the strong lead contrasts sharply with the close race unfolding in the Quebec riding of Terrebonne.

Joshua Freeman, CP24.com journalist

Liberals hope for steel, defence workers’ support

Industry Minister Melanie Joly says the Liberals are offering voters in Terrebonne, Que. “stability in a world of instability.”

She also said the party isn’t taking the riding for granted. The Liberals won the former Bloc Quebecois stronghold by just one vote before the Supreme Court overturned the result.

She says she hopes voters can rally behind Prime Minister Mark Carney’s efforts on international trade – the area boasts a large population of steel and defence workers, she said.

Luca Caruso-Moro, CTVNews.ca journalist

Already a close race after polls close in Terrebonne

The race in Terrebonne is already shaping up to be a close race, as expected.

At 9 p.m., the Liberals and the Bloc Québécois are neck-and-neck, with the Liberals’ Tatiana Auguste just one vote behind her main opponent, Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné of the Bloc, who has 138 votes, with five out of 211 polls reporting.

Polls have only been closed for half an hour so there are still many more votes to be counted throughout the evening.

Joe Lofaro, CTVNewsMontreal.ca journalist

‘There’s got to be a reckoning coming’

CTV News Ottawa bureau chief Graham Richardson says a recent wave of MPs crossing to the Liberals reflects a mix of political pressures.

“I think it’s about Donald Trump, I think it’s about Mark Carney. I think it’s about Pierre Poilievre,” Richardson said.

“I don’t know of someone who has lost this many MPs in this short of a time. Why is that? Is it because of Mr. Carney, Mr. Trump or Mr. Poilievre? I say it’s because of all three. And I think there’s got to be a reckoning coming.”

Richardson said while Poilievre maintains strong support within the party, holding caucus unity is essential to forming government.

“He needs his caucus. You can’t become the government in waiting. You can’t be the opposition leader when you can’t hold your caucus. That’s a problem,” he said.

Tammy Ibrahimpoor, CTVNews.ca national digital producer

Mendicino says defecting MPs faced ‘harassment’

Former Liberals cabinet minister Marco Mendicino says MPs who have crossed the floor are motivated by a desire to better represent their constituents.

“The individuals who have come over, have come over against the tidal wave of intimidation and harassment,” Mendicino told CTV News, adding that any perceived personal gain is secondary to the opportunity to be part of the governing caucus.

“If you’re looking for a personal payoff in the short term, I think the only personal payoff is that you’re giving a greater voice to your constituency by being part of the caucus that is governing right now,” he said.

Tammy Ibrahimpoor, CTVNews.ca national digital producer

Cullen warns floor crossings undermine voter mandate

Former NDP MP Nathan Cullen say floor crossings risk undermining voter trust and the role political parties play in elections.

“I’ve never been a huge fan of floor crossing,” he told CTV News Monday. “I think it speaks to a hubris and egotism from the politicians involved,” Cullen said.

He added that potential gains for Prime Minister Mark Carney through floor crossings could come at a cost to public confidence.

“Mr. Carney will have achieved his majority, if he does, in part because people picked up their bag and went across the floor without asking the voters who sent them to Ottawa first. And there’s something that just breeds cynicism in that for me, and I wish it weren’t the case.”

Tammy Ibrahimpoor, CTVNews.ca national digital producer

A leader on borrowed time?

Tonight cuts both ways for the opposition.

In a minority Parliament, Pierre Poilievre benefited from constant election pressure.

The threat of a snap vote kept the party unified and made it harder for Conservatives to challenge Poilievre’s leadership, even as wounds accumulated. Conservatives lost an election they were supposed to win. Poilievre lost his own seat. Then they lost four MPs.

A Liberal majority changes that overnight.

If Mark Carney secures majority control, the urgency disappears. The Conservatives no longer need to rally behind a leader simply to be election-ready. That opens the door to something they’ve been avoiding: a reset.

The upside? Time to regroup, rebuild, and potentially choose a leader without the baggage.

The downside? That choice becomes unavoidable.

Tonight isn’t just about seats. It’s about whether the Conservatives choose to stay the course or they decide they can do better.

Kathleen Monk, political strategist, former director of communications for late NDP leader Jack Layton

Slow and steady so far in Scarborough

A slow but steady stream of voters are arriving at a federal byelection voting location in Scarborough Southwest, with one voter telling CTV News that he’s casting his vote to support the federal Liberals.

Another voter tells us she normally votes Conservative, but that she likes Mark Carney, saying that he appears to be a serious leader who’s focused on getting to work.

Another voter tells CTV News that they don’t like politicians who “flip flop.” Liberal candidate Doly Begum did flip from the Ontario NDP party, where she was an MPP and deputy leader.

Roughly 10,300 came out to cast their vote early in Scarborough southwest.

Adrian Ghobrial, Senior Correspondent, CTV National News

Will Terrebone be a barometer for Carney in Quebec?

All eyes are on Terrebonne, where the saying ”'every vote counts” has never felt more tangible. In a dramatic turn, the Liberal candidate previously secured victory in the riding by a single vote over their Bloc Québécois opponent, only for the results of the April 2025 general election to be annulled nearly 10 months later.

As the provincial political landscape shifts and the Parti Québécois remains a formidable force, focus has turned to the federal race. While the government may be on track to secure a majority, boosted by potential gains in Toronto, the outcome in Terrebonne will serve as a crucial barometer for Mark Carney’s popularity in Quebec.

The Liberals appear to hold the upper hand: they are benefiting from an exceptionally short campaign, a surge of energy following thousands of party faithful gathering in Montreal for last weekend’s National Liberal Convention, and the ability to pool campaign spending from three ridings into Terrebonne, a strategic advantage the Bloc cannot match, given their lack of candidates in Ontario.

Sharan Kaur, communications expert, former deputy chief of staff for former Liberal finance minister Bill Morneau

Liberals have advantage in Toronto: pollster

Pollster Nik Nanos says he anticipates that the Liberals will do well in the two Toronto ridings up for grabs tonight – University-Rosedale and Scarborough Southwest.

In last year’s election, Liberal Bill Blair won Scarborough Southwest with more than 61 per cent of the vote while Chrystia Freeland captured University-Rosedale with 64 per cent of the vote.

“Toronto and the GTA generally are quite good for the Liberals. It would be a big surprise if the Liberals didn’t do well (in the city) tonight, especially in Scarborough Southwest,” Nanos said.

Chris Fox, CP24.com and CTV News Toronto managing digital producer

Advance turnout was low here

The Toronto riding of University-Rosedale has only ever been represented by Chrystia Freeland, the former Liberal MP and deputy prime minister first elected to Parliament in 2015, the same year the riding was created.

Tonight, the Liberals are hoping to hang on to this seat with candidate Dr. Danielle Martin, a doctor and hospital executive who has been a longtime proponent of universal healthcare.

Don Hodgson, a business owner in the mortgage industry, is running for the Conservatives while Serena Purdy, a community organizer and academic, is running for the NDP.

Voter turnout during advance polls was low in this riding -- 9,400 votes cast during this byelection vs. 14,360 who cast early ballots in 2025. It hasn’t been very busy at the polling station on the University of Toronto campus, with voters we’ve spoken with saying they are voting for a variety of reasons including cost of living, Canada’s position on the world stage and the ongoing trade war with the United States.

Heather Wright, CTV News senior correspondent

What will outcome mean for Poilievre?

While all eyes are fixed on the near-certainty of a majority government as polls close tonight, a crucial question remains: what does this outcome mean for CPC leader Pierre Poilievre?

Less than a year ago, despite failing to form government or secure his own seat, Poilievre did successfully increase his party’s overall turnout.

However, following his leadership review earlier this year, there was an expectation of a bump in his approval ratings, a momentum that has failed to translate into a significant presence in any of the three ridings being contested tonight.

Compounded by a series of floor crossings, the departure of senior staff, and whispers of an unsettled caucus, Poilievre’s leadership faces a moment of reckoning. For him to remain a relevant force moving forward, he needs to see a substantial show of strength from Conservative voters in Terrebonne tonight.

Sharan Kaur, communications expert, former deputy chief of staff for former Liberal finance minister Bill Morneau

Could Poilievre be spoiler for Liberal win in Terrebonne?

Considering the Conservatives had 18 per cent support in the last federal election in Terrebonne (a good showing for the Conservatives in Quebec), what will happen with Conservatives support tonight?

What we do know is that Conservative voters are likely less motivated than Bloc Quebecois and Liberal voters in the riding. Do the Conservatives stay home? Do they vote for the BQ to block the Liberals?

We will likely have a line of sight on that later tonight. If Conservatives decide to vote BQ to stop the Liberals from winning the seat, the Poilievre Conservatives effectively become a spoiler for the Liberals in Terrebonne.

Nik Nanos, official pollster for CTV News

The story of this race

The Bloc Québécois candidate’s slogan for the byelection in Terrebonne is “Un vote qui compte” – meaning “a vote that counts.”

It certainly reflects the story of this race, and voters that have been coming to the polling station all afternoon are taking it to heart.

One person who was casting a ballot told me “we want a clear winner this time.”

Genevieve Beauchemin, CTV News Quebec bureau chief

Ballots vs. backroom power

Let’s face it, Mark Carney didn’t win this majority, he built it.

Through floor crossings the Liberals reshaped Parliament without facing voters. It’s legal, but politically uncomfortable. The opposition have framed Carney’s moves as ‘majority by stealth,’ opportunistic and not the choice Canadians made.

But tonight comes the byelections.

This is Carney’s chance to turn political engineering into public endorsement. A strong result lets him argue voters are on board. A weak result (not securing Terrebonne) reinforces the sense that this government skipped a step in the democratic process.

The tension is this: Carney is selling himself as above politics, focused on governing.

But the strategy that got him to tonight is anything but.Tonight is the democratic legitimacy test. Voters will get to decide and then the real challenge begins. The clock starts on the Carney Majority government and voters will expect the government to deliver.

Kathleen Monk, political strategist, former director of communications for late NDP leader Jack Layton

‘It’s an important election’

Industry Minister Mélanie Joly says the federal government is not taking anything for granted, stressing the importance of stability.

“It’s an important election … Our goal is to make sure that we’re able to show to people in Terrebonne that in a world of instability, what is required now is more stability, and voting for Prime Minister Carney is the way to be able to have better stability,” Joly told CTV News in the Quebec riding of Terrebonne.

Joly framed the vote as not only a question of stability, but also of national unity.

“In a world that is way more divided, Quebecers and Canadians are seeking the fact that they can have a prime minister … (who) is able to show that we can be in control of things at home and at the same time that we’re able to have access to a form of stability in a world of instability.”

Tammy Ibrahimpoor, national digital producer, CTVNews.ca

48 candidates in Terrebonne

While the Terrebonne vote count was already facing higher scrutiny because of last year’s general election results, it also drew the attention of the Longest Ballot Committee, a protest group pushing for electoral reform.

The group aims to break records during elections by registering dozens — and sometimes hundreds — of candidates.

With 48 people on the ballot for Monday’s byelection, Elections Canada allowed write-in ballots to make the process simpler for voters. But, Elections Canada has also warned that it could take longer than is typical for the results to come in because it takes longer to count the ballots the more candidates are registered.

Spencer Van Dyk, CTVNews.ca journalist

Challengers face uphill battle in Toronto

Candidates hoping to upset the Liberals in Toronto will need to overcome a strong historical trend. Both ridings have voted overwhelmingly Liberal for the past decade.

In fact, a candidate from another party has won in Scarborough Southwest just once since 1988, when the NDP won in 2011’s “Orange Crush.”

But Scarborough Southwest has voted Liberal since Bill Blair snatched it back from the NDP in 2015. In last year’s election, the Liberals won 61 per cent of the vote there.

Similarly, University-Rosedale has been solidly Liberal since the riding was created in 2015. In last year’s election, Chrystia Freeland won with 64 per cent of the vote.

Here’s a closer look at the two byelections in Toronto, including who’s running.

Joshua Freeman, CP24.com journalist

Poilievre’s reputation, not ridings, at risk: Nanos

For Poilievre, I’m especially watching the riding of Terrebonne in Quebec.

Although the Conservatives are not poised to win, back in 2015 they received a respectable 18 per cent of the vote.

Of note, the byelection is a showdown with the same three candidates (Liberal, BQ, Conservative) so tonight’s results are comparable.

Poilievre’s personal brand in the Nanos preferred-PM tracking is weaker than in the last election. Tonight, we’ll get a glimmer of how long, or short, his political coattails are.

A good showing would be Conservative support in Terrebonne that matches or exceeds the last election. A poorer showing, coupled with caucus defections, may cause internal Conservative grumblings.

Nik Nanos, official pollster for CTV News

Are Liberals trying to ‘poach’ this MP?

Conservative MP Billy Morin told The Canadian Press ahead of a press conference Monday morning the Liberals were trying to “poach” him.

He later said he is “proud to be a part of a strong opposition.” Liberal MP Wayne Long denied that the party was trying to poach Morin.

When asked if he’s expecting more Conservative floor crossers, Long replied, “Not that I’m aware of, no.”

The Canadian Press

What’s next for Pierre Poilievre?

A Liberal majority could intensify the pressure on Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, who “has taken nothing but Ls” – meaning “losses” – since the last general election.

That’s according to CTV News political commentator Scott Reid. He made the remark during a panel discussion ahead of polls closing Monday evening.

“He has got to start to make the case,” said Reid. “If he can’t win, what’s his purpose?”

The Conservative Party has lost four MPs to the Liberals in recent months. Despite handedly winning an internal confidence vote to remain as leader, surveyed Canadians still favour Mark Carney as prime minister.

In a Nanos survey ending April 10, 32 per cent of respondents said they would consider voting Conservative, but just 24 per cent said Poilievre was their top choice for prime minister.

But a majority government could also put pressure on the Liberals to deliver.

“No excuses now,” Stephen Harper-era cabinet member James Moore told the panel. He added “a light switch is about to get switched on,” in terms of Canadians’ expectations on the government to show progress on key election issues.

Luca Caruso-Moro, CTVNews.ca journalist

Even a Liberal win will merit focus

The last federal election was a squeaker in terms of popular support between the Liberals and the Conservatives, but the distribution of votes favoured the Liberals, who came away with a majority government.

In 2015, more than 19 million votes were cast. When I checked last, if 61 votes had been cast differently in four ridings (Windsor–Tecumseh–Lakeshore, Nunavut, Terra Nova–The Peninsulas, and Terrebonne), the Liberals would have hit a majority.

That said, even a Liberal win will merit focus: is Liberal support higher, lower, or the same as in 2015?

Nik Nanos, official pollster for CTV News

‘Canadians are disturbed’: Lewis

Newly-minted NDP Leader Avi Lewis said today he feels Canadians “are disturbed” by the number of MPs crossing the floor to join the Liberals, putting that party just one seat shy of a majority.

“People want to elect their representatives,” he said, adding that when Canadians vote, they are also voting for the party they want to form government, not just the candidate.

• IN PICTURES: Canadian politicians who crossed the floor

Four out of the five Parliamentarians who have joined the Liberals left the Conservative caucus, but the NDP has lost one member also – Nunavut MP Nancy Idlout.

“It just feels wrong,” said Lewis. “I think Canadians are disturbed by this.”

Luca Caruso-Moro, CTVNews.ca journalist

What’s on the pollster’s radar?

Byelections are often an opportunity for voters to “send a message” to governments.

The Toronto byelection in St. Paul’s in 2024 and the Liberal defeat in what was a Liberal stronghold sent a strong negative message to then-Liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.

That said, byelections are also about on-the-ground organization. They are a political street fight where parties can punch above their weight because they can focus resources more intensely than in a general election.

Early indicators I’ll watch include advance poll results and whether turnout is heavier or lighter than expected.

Nik Nanos, official pollster for CTV News

More floor crossers coming?

Following a slate of floor crossers defecting from their parties to join the Liberal ranks — the latest being longtime Conservative MP Marilyn Gladu last week — the Liberals signalled during their annual convention this weekend that they want a majority sealed through the ballot box, not through additional floor crossers.

But, amid Gladu’s surprise decision to join the Liberal benches, Government House Leader Steven MacKinnon wouldn’t say whether there’s a red line on which defecting MPs the Liberals will or won’t bring into their caucus.

Gladu’s decision to cross the floor raised eyebrows because of her longstanding positions on vaccines, the COVID-19 pandemic, abortion, and LGBTQ2S+ issues.

Prime Minister Mark Carney, meanwhile, insisted Gladu will “vote with the government” on social issues, and speaking to reporters from the Liberal convention on Thursday, Gladu herself said the same.

In an interview with CTV’s Question Period, MacKinnon wouldn’t directly answer when pressed by host Vassy Kapelos on whether there are any red lines for who the party will or won’t accept into the fold.

“We will keep a light on and a door open for all of those who want to support Liberal Party principles, which are immutable, and the prime minister, his policies and our platform,” MacKinnon also told Kapelos.

Spencer Van Dyk, CTVNews.ca journalist. With files from CTV News’ Ottawa Bureau Chief Graham Richardson

‘This is our chance’

The leaders for the Liberals, Conservatives and NDP have all taken to social media Monday to encourage voters in the three byelection ridings.

“Today is Election Day in University-Rosedale, Scarborough Southwest, and Terrebonne,” Carney said on social media. “Your voice matters — so don’t forget to get out and vote.”

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre also encouraged Canadians in these ridings to “get out and vote for safe streets, affordable food, and a strong, self-reliant Canada,” saying his candidates “are ready to hold the Carney Liberals to account.”

New NDP Leader Avi Lewis also called on supporters in these three ridings to have their voices heard. “Canadians do not want a two-party system and this is our chance to send that message to the Liberal government,” he said.

While Bloc Quebecois Leader Yves-François Blanchet has yet to do so, he posted from the campaign trail in Terrebonne on Sunday, where he joined candidate Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné for a cabane-à-sucre event.

Spencer Van Dyk, CTVNews.ca journalist, and Rachel Aiello, CTV News correspondent

Who are the voters?

From a razor-thin margin in the suburban Quebec riding of Terrebonne in last April’s federal election, to the deeply entrenched Liberal strongholds of University—Rosedale and Scarborough Southwest in the Greater Toronto Area, the demographic and voting patterns in each riding tell a unique story.

While two of the races appear to be foregone conclusions, a closer look at the voters by data analytics firm Environics Analysis reveals the anxieties and priorities that could shape the results, from cost-of-living pressures on families to the influence of star candidates and the critical importance of voter turnout.

Read the full analysis here.

Two Liberal strongholds

University—Rosedale has been held by a Liberal since the riding’s 2015 inception, when it was created from Trinity—Spadina and Toronto Centre, another Liberal stronghold.

Its most recent occupant, former deputy prime minister and longtime cabinet minister Chrystia Freeland, resigned in January to take on a role with the Ukrainian government, after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy tapped her to serve as an advisor on economic development.

Like University—Rosedale, Scarborough Southwest has long been considered a Liberal stronghold.

And, like University—Rosedale, it was held until recently by a longtime Trudeau-era cabinet minister, Bill Blair, who resigned early last month after Prime Minister Mark Carney announced he had appointed him Canada’s high commissioner to the United Kingdom.

Spencer Van Dyk, CTVNews.ca journalist

Liberals all-in for Terrebonne

Less than an hour outside downtown Montreal, election signs with the faces of Bloc and Liberal candidates running in Terrebonne are displayed everywhere, including on lawns, storefronts and even lamp posts.

The Liberals are throwing everything they can behind the traditional Bloc riding they won by a single vote in the 2025 federal election.

That decision was ultimately overturned by the Supreme Court after Bloc candidate and former MP Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné alleged at least one Bloc voter did not have her mail-in ballot counted. The court’s decision triggered Monday’s byelection.

Terrebonne, a riding northeast of Montreal, has long been considered a Bloc and Parti Québécois stronghold.

Éric-Antoine Ménard, the head of NorthStar Public Affairs in Quebec, says the last time the provincial Liberals won the riding was 1973, and the last time the federal Liberals won the riding in an uncontested vote was in 1980 — when Jimmy Carter was the U.S. president.

“This is a riding that is so blue that you know, if it were any bluer, we’d be in an episode of The Smurfs,” said Ménard. “Supporting the Liberals in Terrebonne, historically, has been kind of like wearing a (Toronto Maple) Leafs jersey at the Bell Centre.”

Annie Bergeron-Oliver, CTV News senior correspondent. Read the full story here.