Will London’s lower population projection mean less residential land added to Urban Growth Boundary?

With revised numbers for London’s population projections in the coming decades, CTV’s Daryl Newcombe takes a look at the data, and how it will change minds at c

The provincial government recently slashed its population projection for London by more than 55,000 people in 2051, re-igniting questions about the amount of new residential land that the city will require over the same time period.

“It’s a pretty stark decrease in the extent of population growth that the province is predicting,” says Dr. Brendon Samuels, who believes an upcoming expansion of the Urban Growth Boundary (UGB) should reflect the new data from the provincial government.

Last month, Ontario’s Ministry of Finance (MOF) updated municipal population projections.

Based on London maintaining 84 per cent of the population within the local census region, the provincial government now estimates the city will reach a population of 686,733 in 2051.

The new long-term population projection is 55,051 residents lower than data released a year prior (2024) by the MOF that estimated London would reach 741,785 in 2051.

Dr. Samuels believes the new population projections require a significant reduction in the amount of undeveloped land that will be added within London’s Urban Growth Boundary to meet future demand for housing.

“We need to go back and adjust the draft report, rather than doubling down on a decision that now seems to be based on outdated information,” he told CTV News.

The Urban Growth Boundary (UGB) is intended to prevent sprawl by restricting where residential development can occur within the city limits.

The UGB is currently under review at city hall to determine how much additional land is required to meet housing needs over the next 30 years.

Earlier this year city staff prepared a map that shows multiple areas in north London where the boundary could be extended to add a total of 1,431 hectares to 1,529 hectares of developable residential land.

“To be consistent with the provincial planning statement, city council should be reducing the land needs assessment to meet the new population forecast,” argued Sandy Levin, a former city councillor. “My back-of-the-envelope calculation shows a little over 900 hectares no longer being needed for housing.”

Last year, a consultant’s report estimated land values increase 5.5x to 8x higher when moved within the urban growth boundary.

The London Development Institute (LDI), a lobbying organization for local developers, opposes a reduction to the amount of residential land being added within the UGB.

“The current Urban Growth Boundary has been in place, as of next year, for 30 years,” explained Mike Wallace, Executive Director of LDI. “The Urban Growth Boundary that’s out for consultation and for discussion adds the next 30 years.”

Wallace warns that housing prices could be pushed even higher if the supply of residential land is insufficient to meet future demand.

“It doesn’t mean that we’ll be growing out to that Urban Growth Boundary in 30 years. If the projections are right, we will be. But if they’re not, that land just stays undeveloped until its time,” he added.

But Samuels says there are many policy changes that the provincial government could make that would help ensure housing affordability that don’t require over-expansion of the UGB, including implementing recommendations from the Housing Affordability Task Force and expanding rent control.

“There’s all these things being left on the table, and instead we’ve handed the keys to private interest developers who are going to profit off these decisions in the short term as well as in the longer term,” he explains. “I feel like we’re losing a bit of control over what is actually going to unfold over the next couple of decades.”

Levin added, “One would think that our council would want to use the most up to date information and be consistent with the provincial planning statement.”

A community information session is being held Wednesday at 7 p.m. at city hall about the draft Urban Growth Boundary expansion.