Loosening of restrictive measures could mean 'moderate' bump in hospitalizations: Tam

As the country lifts restrictive measures aimed at limiting the spread of COVID-19, Canadians should expect a rise in cases, according to Canada's chief public health officer.

At a technical briefing on Friday, Dr. Theresa Tam said Canadians can expect to see a "bump in cases" with protective measures lifting, but taking small protective steps can mitigate the wider impact.

"While Omicron activity has likely peaked, the easing of public health measures could still lead to a resurgence," she said.

As Canada prepares to transition into a post-pandemic period, Tam said a "balanced and sustainable approach" to the easing of restrictive measures will "minimize societal disruption" while protecting those most vulnerable, including immunocompromised Canadians.

According to national public health modelling, Tam said with a "moderate effect" of easing public health measures, officials forecast a "limited" resurgence of daily cases with a "moderate" resurgence of hospitalization cases in the spring.

With a "more substantial" easing of restrictive measures, however, Tam said even if Canada sees a resurgence of Omicron cases that surpasses previous peaks, hospitalization rates would remain much lower than in prior surges.

Tam said she credits this improvement in the hospitalizations forecast on Canada's high vaccine uptake. Health experts say the COVID-19 vaccine is an effective way to prevent severe illness requiring hospitalization and death.

"We should be able to manage the pandemic going into the future without, I think, some of the more stringent or restrictive public health measures," Tam said.

But with forecast data subject to change, Tam said that we can't rule these measures out completely.

"They may still be needed if there was a very severe variant that escaped vaccine immunity, for example," Tam said. "We want to be able to surge as needed. But for now, I think given the projections, if we don't get another variant that is very significant in terms of impact, we should see a diminution of the Omicron wave and be able return back to some of that normalcy."

The aim moving forward, Tam said, is to avoid the "yo-yo" of public health measures that have frustrated the public and overwhelmed hospitals in the past, and to prepare for future waves by improving Canada's health care capacity as well as taking personal protective measures including avoiding large crowds, improving indoor ventilation, and masking when appropriate.