Preston Manning: Spike in secession support inevitable if Carney wins election

Former leader of the Reform Party Preston Manning speaks about the issues Canadians in Western Canada want addressed.

To former opposition leader Preston Manning, the solution to keeping Canada unified is simple: Replace Mark Carney’s Liberal government this election, under a different party banner.

“I’m very strongly on Canadians uniting, but the question is: ‘Uniting behind whom, and for what’?” he told CTV Your Morning in an interview Wednesday.

“I suggest that they need to unite between a fresh, new administration that does not have all this baggage.”

Manning, who led the Reform Party of Canada from 1987 until 2000, describes the almost 10 years of past governments as “Liberal misrule” in the eyes of Western Canada, citing policy disputes over deficits, pipelines, climate change and the resource sectors.

Alberta and Saskatchewan, but also parts of Manitoba, British Columbia and the territories, don’t want to “be subjected to another four years of Liberal rule,” he says, even as Carney’s policies have diverged from those under former Liberal leader Justin Trudeau.

“There’s simply a skepticism about Mister Carney making a 180-degree turn,” Manning said.

An April report from the Angus Reid Institute found that 25 per cent of surveyed Albertans, 20 per cent of people from Saskatchewan and 28 per cent of Quebecers would vote “yes” in a referendum about becoming an independent country. Those numbers for all three provinces jump to 30 per cent or more in a hypothetical future where the Liberals form government after election day.

Nanos Research, meanwhile, found in a recent survey that while 62 per cent of national respondents said western separatism should be taken at least somewhat seriously, 61 per cent said this is not the time to talk about it.

Manning says he isn’t personally advocating for secession, but rather for a post-election “democratic forum” to discuss independence and related issues, regardless of who wins.

In the event of a change in party rule, he describes it as a conference to, in part, address the "damage done to Western Canada by a decade of Liberal neglect." But if the Liberals hold on to control, Manning instead imagines it would be a form of exit planning.

• READ MORE: Western separation is unlikely, Alberta political scientist says. Here’s what might happen instead

In an opinion column published by the Globe and Mail earlier this month, Manning wrote that should Carney win next Monday’s federal election, he would come to be known as “the last prime minister of a united Canada.”

Carney has called Manning’s comments “dramatic” and “unhelpful,” describing the current political moment as “a time when we need to come together as a country.” Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has also spoken against the column’s talk of separatism, calling for a national effort to “bring all Canadians together in a spirit of common ground.”

As for the provinces in question, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has also raised concerns of a “national unity crisis,” should her province’s demands not be met by the next federal government, but hasn’t said definitively that Liberals would spark one just by winning the election.

Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe, who, like Smith, has endorsed the federal Conservatives, also fell short of echoing Manning’s column, noting that the Liberals had not served the province’s interests, but saying “we most certainly are Canadian in this province."

The premiers of British Columbia and Manitoba, both New Democrats, have also been cold on the concept, with Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew saying that voices of unity “far, far outweigh any of the other voices out there.”

You can watch the full interview with former opposition leader Preston Manning in the video player at the top of this article.

With files from CTV News’ Andrew Weichel, Keenan Sorokan and The Canadian Press