Alberta's diplomatic efforts to avert tariffs a high-wire act, political watchers say

Alberta premier Danielle Smith, left, talks with colleagues during the fall meetings of Canada's premiers hosted by Ontario, in Toronto, Monday, Dec. 16, 2024. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Nathan Denette

EDMONTON — Political watchers say Premier Danielle Smith is walking a tightrope, diplomatically pleading Alberta’s case to an incoming U.S. president threatening to annex Canada without throwing the rest of the country under the bus.

Smith travelled south this weekend for a face-to-face meeting with incoming U.S president Donald Trump at his Mar-a-Lago home in Florida. It was an effort to stave off Trump’s promised 25 per cent levy on all Canadian goods — including Alberta’s mainstay oil and gas exports.

Trump is promising the tariffs shortly after he takes office Monday. He has also suggested the tariffs are part of a larger strategy to annex Canada through “economic force.” That has sparked a national debate over the best course of action for Canada.

University of Calgary political scientist Lisa Young said all Canadian politicians are faced with the choice between trying to reason with Trump or stand up and risk a trade war.

Young said Smith runs the risk of undermining Canada’s negotiating stance as a whole if she pursues a special carve-out for the oil and gas sector.

Smith getting an exemption would make her a hero in Alberta, but elsewhere, Canadians might see it as a betrayal, because Canada would lose some of its ability to demonstrate to Americans how tariffs hurt them, Young said.

“So it’s really a tightrope that Alberta is walking on this,” said Young, who conceded that it could be Smith is trying to save the rest of Canada from tariffs by emphasizing the importance of the energy sector.

With Prime Minister Justin Trudeau promising to resign and his Liberal party in a leadership race, provincial premiers have been stepping up to fill the leadership void.

Federal Foreign Affairs Minister Melanie Joly has said all retaliatory trade measures against the U.S. are up for debate.

Smith has cautioned Ottawa against blocking energy exports to the U.S. in response to tariffs, calling it an “empty threat” that would spark a national unity crisis.

Other leaders have taken a different approach, including Ontario Premier Doug Ford, who has said he wants to keep the broader retaliation option on the table.

When Trump announced in November he would institute the tariffs, it was tied to his desire to stem the flow of drugs and migrants crossing the border.

But Smith said Monday Canada should focus on addressing the trade imbalance between the countries, which has now become the biggest trade irritant for Trump.

“The goalposts have shifted,” said Young.

She added there is an argument to be made for trying to come to a reasonable agreement with the Trump administration, “if you assume that Trump is a reasonable person and is amenable to making and keeping an agreement.”

Mount Royal University political scientist Lori Williams said the debate over an energy embargo is a conversation that should be happening behind closed doors.

“It’s not something that should happen in public because it exposes weaknesses,” she said.

Premiers are expected to meet with Trudeau on Wednesday morning to discuss their strategy.

Like Young, Williams said it will be a tough balancing act for Smith to advance Alberta’s interests without framing other provinces' main industries as more legitimate targets for tariffs.

“If we start going against one another, we’ll be a lot easier to pick off,” she said.

Still, she said Ford and Smith are speaking to audiences that Trudeau can’t reach, including on right-wing American broadcast networks.

“Since we don’t have, at least at this stage, clear leadership, there’s an opportunity to develop that strategy where a number of voices can contribute.”

Duane Bratt, a Mount Royal University political scientist, said Smith is right to speak directly to Trump about the economic consequences of tariffs that Americans haven’t felt yet.

Going to Mar-a-Lago to explain to Trump that tariffs hurt everybody isn’t appeasement, Bratt said.

“That is reality.”

Bratt said some will criticize Smith for “playing footsie with a maniac,” while members of her own United Conservative Party are aligned with many of Trump’s policies and have mused about joining the U.S. in the past.

“That’s why it’s a tightrope on both sides. You already have people calling her a traitor, but these are people who didn’t like her to begin with,” he said.

“But what is the alternative? Stick your head in the sand and let Ottawa deal with this? Who in Ottawa?” said Bratt.

Bratt said that by announcing his resignation earlier this month, Trudeau did more to signal weakness than anything Smith has done.

“We are weak because we have no real functioning government. That has nothing to do with Danielle Smith.”

Colin Aitchison, Western Canada director at communications firm Enterprise Canada and a former UCP staffer, also said premiers are right to step up in the midst of a leadership void in Ottawa.

For him, the risk is Smith not doing enough.

“The worst thing any premier could do is sit idly by without pleading our province’s and Canada’s case,” Aitchison said.

“Premier Smith recognizes that, and that’s why she jumped on the opportunity to visit Mar-a-Lago.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Jan. 14, 2025.