High numbers of immigrants choosing to leave Canada for greener pastures: study

As the federal government prepares to unveil its immigration targets for the next three years, new research finds immigrants to Canada are increasingly leaving this country for opportunities elsewhere.

The number of immigrants who left Canada surged in 2017 and 2019, according to a study conducted by the Institute for Canadian Citizenship and the Conference Board of Canada. Those spikes represent an increase of 31 per cent above the historical average.

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Even excluding those two years, however, the study found onward migration, or the process whereby someone moves on from a country they immigrated to and settles again elsewhere, has steadily increased since the 1980s. Among people who arrived in the ‘80s, the average cumulative onward migration rate was 18 per cent. That number rose to 21 per cent among people granted permanent residence in the first half of the 1990s.

"Canada’s future prosperity depends on immigration," the study reads, citing past research by the Conference Board of Canada that has shown immigration leads to GDP growth, improves the worker-to-retiree ratio and eases labour shortages that add to inflation. Welcoming newcomers also helps fulfill Canada’s humanitarian goals.

"The benefits of immigration are realized over the time that immigrants spend in Canada—the longer they stay, the more they benefit and contribute. Immigrants who thrive are more likely to stay."

The study found immigrants to Canada are most likely to migrate again four to seven years after arriving here, suggesting that positive early experiences may be key to enticing immigrants to stay here.For these reasons, the authors urged the federal government to make retaining newcomers a top priority.

"For Canada to meet its immigration goals, the country must not only attract newcomers but also retain them. Yet few attempts have been made to evaluate Canada’s immigrant retention rate," the study reads.

"Retention should be a key performance indicator for Canada’s immigration strategy, given the central role that immigration is meant to play in supporting population and economic growth."

WHY STAY?

In order to chart the best course forward, the authors said policymakers need to understand the factors that influence onward migration.

These can include economic integration; a sense of belonging; racism; homeownership, or lack thereof; and immigration and economic opportunities in other countries. The study also points out that many people who immigrate to Canada are likely to face significant career setbacks if they can't find work that matches their qualifications and professional expertise. It can take years to recover from these setbacks, if they ever do recover.

In order to improve the quality of life and prospects for immigrants in Canada, the authors suggested multiple levels of government work together to monitor the onward migration rate among immigrants, invest in settlement services and other programs that ease the process of immigrating to Canada, help employers hire and retain immigrant workers and invest in infrastructure improvements that improve communities in general.

"Investments in early positive experiences may help reduce overall levels of onward migration," the study reads.

"Initiatives that foster a sense of belonging and attachment to Canada, together with policies that ensure immigrants and their families have opportunities for personal and career growth, could influence more immigrants to decide to stay in Canada."

The research comes amid a fresh burst of discourse around immigration in this country.

Canada's population surpassed 40 million people this year after rising by more than one million in 2022. A Statistics Canada report published in late September found 98 per cent of that growth came from net international migration.

In light of this growth, paired with what many experts have labelled a housing crisis, the federal government is grappling with whether its current immigration targets are sustainable.

Last year, Ottawa said it aimed to admit 500,000 permanent residents annually by 2025. Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Minister Marc Miller is expected to reveal whether Canada plans to maintain that target when he releases the federal government’s updated immigration levels plan on Wednesday.

On Tuesday, Miller laid out the federal government's priorities for improving Canada's immigration system with the newly released Strategic Immigration Review report.

The report outlines key measures intended to strengthen the immigration system, including plans to take housing, health care, infrastructure and other services into account when planning immigration levels.

Public opinion around immigration has also begun to shift after decades of steady support for immigrants.

According to the latest Focus Canada public research survey conducted by the Toronto-based Environics Institute, a growing proportion of Canadians is sharing the belief that the current rate of immigration to Canada is too high, citing concerns about how newcomers might impact the availability of affordable housing.

The finding reflects a dramatic shift since last year, when public support for immigration numbers stood at an all-time high.

"Canadians are still more likely to disagree than agree that immigration levels are too high, but the gap between these two opposing views has shrunk over the past 12 months, from 42 percentage points to just seven," the report reads.