Here's where Canadians are living abroad: report
A recent report sheds light on Canadians living abroad--estimated at around four million people in 2016—and the public policies that impact them.
Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives have increased their support as the party Canadians would vote for and the Liberals are at a statistical tie with the New Democrats, according to the latest Nanos Research ballot tracking, which measures popular support for the major federal parties.
Poilievre's personal numbers continue to trend sharply upwards while his party saw a 17-point advantage over the federal Liberals in the new Nanos tracking.
On the ballot question, Conservatives are leading with an uptick in support over the past four weeks at 40.6 per cent versus Justin Trudeau's Liberals, whose support dipped to 23.8 per cent. NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh and his party saw a slight rise in support at 21.9 per cent.
"The reality is still (a) big advantage for Pierre Poilievre on the ballot numbers," said Nik Nanos, CTV News' pollster and chief data scientist of Nanos Research, on the latest episode of CTV News Trend Line. "When you see those Liberal numbers get towards the NDP numbers, who knows what Jagmeet Singh might do? Especially since … we're in 2024 (and there's) not a big gap between the New Democrats and the Liberals."
Nanos Research
For another Nanos survey on Canadians' preferred prime minister, about 36 per cent of respondents say Poilievre is their best choice, a 16-point advantage over Trudeau, who has 20 per cent. Singh is at 15 per cent.
"The trend line for Pierre Poilievre is at a level that is higher than any Conservative leader, including Stephen Harper, in the past decade," Nanos said. "He's basically in the driver's seat in terms of the ballot numbers and also in the driver's seat when it comes to who Canadians today at least would prefer as prime minister."
Nanos Research
For the ballot support and preferred PM surveys, the data is based on a random four-week telephone poll of 1,032 Canadians (aged 18 years and older), which is accurate 3.1 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20. The interviews ended Feb. 16.
Moreover, a Nanos survey with The Globe and Mail asked Canadians what would be the best way for the Liberals to improve their chances of winning the next federal election.
"(Trudeau) took the party out of the wilderness in 2015," Nanos said. "The party could go back into the wilderness if he's leader, except if there's something major that happens where he does really well and Pierre Poilievre really blows up."
Canadians' top recommendation for Liberals to improve their political fortunes was to have a new leader (39 per cent). The next popular option was for the Liberals to focus more on economic issues (25 per cent). Meanwhile, 20 per cent think the Liberals should continue with the current policy priorities they've had over the past few years and six per cent said nothing will boost their chances of winning. Only three per cent believe Trudeau should lead the Liberals in the next election.
"What does this mean? That even if you're a committed Liberal supporter, you're probably thinking about something to do other than keeping Justin Trudeau in order to improve your political chances," Nanos said. "So, it speaks to the very tough spot that he is in, at least from a public perception perspective right now."
Even the Liberals’ recent rebranding of the carbon tax rebate may not make much of a difference, Nanos said. The Liberals announced it had renamed the Climate Action Incentive Payment to the Canada Carbon Rebate in mid-February. The government said it felt it needed to clarify the rebate's meaning and function related to carbon pricing, which puts a price on carbon pollution. The Liberals say carbon pricing is an effective way to create “a financial incentive” for people and businesses to pollute less. Through the rebate, Canadians receive fuel charge proceeds every three months.
"It's going to be difficult for the Liberals to get a political bounce out of this," Nanos said. "These quarterly rebate cheques or deposits into people's bank accounts, it's once every three months. But every time someone's putting gas in the car, or paying for their gas bill or their heating bill or something like that, depending on what part of the country you live in and who you happen to be, you're probably angry at the Liberals."
In the Nanos and Globe poll, over two in five Canadians say both Trudeau (46 per cent) and Poilievre (41 per cent) have done a poor job as leaders of their parties. Poilievre scores "marginally higher" than Trudeau with a mean score of 4.4 out of 10 versus 3.9 out of 10, respectively.
The random telephone and online poll was conducted from Jan. 29 to 31. It's accurate 2.9 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20.
Watch the full episode of Trend Line in our video player at the top of this article. You can also listen in our audio player below, or wherever you get your podcasts. The next episode comes out Wednesday, March 6.
A recent report sheds light on Canadians living abroad--estimated at around four million people in 2016—and the public policies that impact them.
Polish President Andrzej Duda says while no decision has been made around whether Poland will host nuclear weapons as part of an expansion of the NATO alliance’s nuclear sharing program, his country is willing and prepared to do so.
Harvey Weinstein’s lawyer said Saturday that the onetime movie mogul has been hospitalized for a battery of tests after his return to New York City following an appeals court ruling nullifying his 2020 rape conviction.
One person was killed in a six-vehicle crash on Highway 400 in Innisfil Friday evening.
Ontario is now home to an invasive and toxic worm species that can grow up to three feet long and can be dangerous to small animals and pets.
A number of LGBQT+2s groups in Central Alberta are pushing back against a request from the Red Deer South UCP constituency to reinstate MLA Jennifer Johnson into the UCP caucus.
It's one thing to say you like Taylor Swift and her music, but don't blame CNN's AJ Willingham's when she says she just 'doesn't get' the global phenomenon.
Sophie Gregoire Trudeau says there is 'still so much love' between her and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, as they navigate their post-separation relationship co-parenting their three children.
A girl and a boy, both 14 years old, made their first appearance today in a Halifax courtroom, where they each face a second-degree murder charge in the stabbing death of a 16-year-old high school student.
As if a 4-0 Edmonton Oilers lead in Game 1 of their playoff series with the Los Angeles Kings wasn't good enough, what was announced at Rogers Place during the next TV timeout nearly blew the roof off the downtown arena.
Mounties in Nanaimo, B.C., say two late-night revellers are lucky their allegedly drunken antics weren't reported to police after security cameras captured the men trying to steal a heavy sign from a downtown business.
A property tax bill is perplexing a small townhouse community in Fergus, Ont.
When identical twin sisters Kim and Michelle Krezonoski were invited to compete against some of the world’s most elite female runners at last week’s Boston Marathon, they were in disbelief.
The giant stone statues guarding the Lions Gate Bridge have been dressed in custom Vancouver Canucks jerseys as the NHL playoffs get underway.
A local Oilers fan is hoping to see his team cut through the postseason, so he can cut his hair.
A family from Laval, Que. is looking for answers... and their father's body. He died on vacation in Cuba and authorities sent someone else's body back to Canada.
A former educational assistant is calling attention to the rising violence in Alberta's classrooms.
The federal government says its plan to increase taxes on capital gains is aimed at wealthy Canadians to achieve “tax fairness.”