563,000 more Canadian millionaires by 2021: report

Credit Suisse, pictured in Zurich, Switzerland, on May 12, 2010. (Keystone / Steffen Schmidt)

Just five years down the road, 50 per cent more Canadians will be able to call themselves millionaires than can do so now, according to a new global wealth report.

Private bank Credit Suisse predicts that the ranks of the millionaire class in Canada will grow by 563,000 people, adding to the exclusive club of 1.1 million Canadian millionaires in 2016. That would put Canada behind only China (73 per cent), India (57 per cent) and Australia (54 per cent) in percentage growth of millionaires over the next five years.

Canada now ranks No. 8 in number of millionaires, behind the U.S., Japan, Britain, Germany, France, China and Italy, despite its low population relative to any of those countries and many of those behind it.

“It has 1.1 millionaires, and accounts for 4 per cent of the top 1 per cent of global wealth-holders, despite having only 0.6 per cent of the world’s adult population,” wrote the authors of the report, among them Jim Davies, a professor of economics at the University of Western Ontario in London, Ont.

The Credit Suisse Research Institute’s Global Wealth Report released Friday is a detailed look at where wealth is concentrated, how it’s distributed, and where it’s growing and shrinking. Wealth is defined as financial assets (savings accounts, retirement savings, investments) and real estate, minus liabilities.

Canada is already among world leaders, with 4 per cent of its adult population counted as millionaires in US dollars. In the last year, the millionaire class grew 2.3 per cent in this country.

That pales in comparison to Japan’s millionaire growth at 35 per cent and Norway’s 25 per cent, but was enough to get Canada on a list of the biggest gains in millionaires. Plenty of countries saw their millionaire class shrink, including the U.K., Switzerland, China, Taiwan, Mexico, Russia, Argentina, Australia, Norway and Italy.

Overall, Credit Suisse forecasts global wealth to increase by 31 per cent over the next five years, which is lower than previously predicted. Much of the dynamism in growth will come from emerging economies such as China, India and Mexico, it predicts.

Globally, it’s projected that the ranks of the lowest stratum will grow by 2 per cent, while the middle class will grow by 23 per cent, almost entirely in lower-income economies such as China.

Canada ranks ninth globally for average wealth per adult at $270,000 US in 2016. Switzerland topped the list at $562,000.

Canada’s average wealth figure is 22 per cent lower than the United States’ $345,000, but Canada distributes its wealth much more evenly than its southern neighbour.

When looking at median wealth, the figure in the middle of the distribution which favours countries with stronger levels of wealth equality, Canada ranks 11th ($97,000), while the U.S. tumbles to 23rd ($45,000).

For the record, Switzerland remained on top on that score, too.

A little more than 45 per cent of Canadians have between $100,000 to $1 million in wealth, while close to 26 per cent hold between $10,000 and $100,000 in wealth. A full quarter of Canadians are worth less than $10,000.

That compares to the U.S. where: 32 per cent are worth $100,000 to $1 million, 29 per cent have $10,000 to $100,000 in wealth and almost 35 per cent have less than $10,000 in wealth.

In a section titled “Some concerns,” the authors said wealth per adult in Canada grew by an average 5.9 per cent a year between 2000 and 2016 when measured in US dollars.

“The economy was hit hard in 2015 by the drop in the world price of oil, and has struggled to recover. However, low interest rates have been maintained, and have helped to stimulate house prices in the major urban centres,” Credit Suisse said.

More than half of household wealth in Canada is held in financial assets, followed closely by real estate. It’s all dragged down by more than $50,000 in average debt.

Overall, the report concluded that economic recovery from the global financial crisis in 2008 has been slow and shallow. Global wealth increased by $104 trillion between 2000 and 2007, but fell back by $28 trillion in 2008.

“Since then, it has managed to recoup all the lost ground, but the pace of growth has been disappointing, with an annual average 3.8 per cent rate, which is less than half the pre-crisis figure of 9.5 per cent.”

According to the report: “Wealth is one of the key components of the economic system. It is valued as a source of finance for future consumption, particularly in retirement, and for reducing vulnerability to shocks such as unemployment, ill health, or natural disasters.”

This year, Japan is leading the way in growth in wealth, while Credit Suisse says notable emerging wealth is found in Chile, the Czech Republic, Lebanon, Slovenia and Uruguay. “Frontier” wealth is evident in Ecuador, Egypt, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Tunisia.

The facts on wealth:

Source: Credit Suisse Research Institute, Global Wealth Report 2016