Alberta leads Canada in November retail sales growth as autos, population gains drive spending

Albertans opened up their wallets in a big way late last year. They outspent every other province in the country.

Alberta posted the strongest monthly retail sales growth in the country in November, according to new data from Statistics Canada.

Higher spending on motor vehicles and continued population growth helped push total retail sales higher, even as economists warn the momentum may be difficult to sustain into 2026.

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Retail sales in Alberta climbed 3.7 per cent in November to reach $9.3 billion, the largest increase among all provinces and well ahead of the national gain of 1.3 per cent.

Statistics Canada said the increase in Alberta was driven largely by higher sales at motor vehicle and parts dealers.

Across Canada, retail sales rose to $70.4 billion, with gains recorded in eight of nine subsectors. In volume terms, national retail sales increased 1.1 per cent.

Statistics Canada said seven provinces posted higher retail sales in November, but Alberta recorded the largest increase in dollar terms.

Ontario’s retail sales rose 0.8 per cent, while New Brunswick saw the steepest decline, down 0.7 per cent.

While Alberta’s November performance stood out, analysts say the strength reflects a mix of population growth, easing interest rates and sector-specific factors, rather than a broad-based rebound in consumer confidence.

Autos and newcomers fuel Alberta’s outperformance

Retail analyst Bruce Winder said Alberta’s strong showing was largely concentrated in automotive sales, a sector that has benefited from population inflows and labour market resilience in the province.

“Overall, the sales were a little bit lukewarm when you look at all of Canada,” Winder told CTV News.

Winder said Alberta’s population growth driven by interprovincial migration and new immigrants continues to support demand for big-ticket purchases, even as consumers elsewhere remain more cautious.

“If you look at Alberta, a lot of people from the East have moved out to the big cities, Calgary and Edmonton, over the last several years,” he said.

“There are other things in play too, like, less Canadians are shopping across the border, interest rates have come down. The other thing that might be helping is obviously any uptick in the energy industry because Alberta is always up or down based on that success.”

Mark Parsons, chief economist at ATB Financial, said Alberta’s population growth continues to exceed that of other provinces, providing a cushion for retail spending, even as consumers navigate inflation pressures and mortgage renewals.

“That’s providing some tailwind to the consumer,” Parsons said.

“That being said, we still expect consumers to be cautious.”

Interest rates, labour market provide short-term lift

Parsons said recent interest rate cuts and a modest improvement in Alberta’s labour market late last year may also be contributing to the November jump, particularly in vehicle purchases.

“One thing that surprised us is motor vehicles,” Parsons said.

“Some of it was front loading — we think to get in front of the tariffs — but that doesn’t explain recent strength.”

He said lower borrowing costs and employment gains likely played a role, alongside continued migration into the province.

At the dealership level, Marty Giles, CEO of the Northstar Ford Automotive Group, said Alberta’s auto market continues to outperform central Canada, even as uncertainty weighs on consumers in manufacturing-heavy provinces.

“The Stats Canada report, I think, says Alberta was up more than anywhere at retail,” Giles said.

“Retail, we’re up about 1.5 per cent as an industry in the Calgary market area.”

Giles said tariff threats and economic headwinds in Ontario and Quebec could also be affecting buyer confidence there, while Alberta’s energy and technology sectors have provided a buffer.

“If I’m in Windsor, Ontario, and I’m in the automotive business and we have our friends south of the border threatening to impose tariffs, it’s not that great for the future economically,” he said.

“The world seems to need our product, they need oil and gas, and we also have a new tech sector that’s growing here in Calgary.”

Core retail sales show broader gains

While Alberta’s growth was led by autos, national data suggests broader consumer spending gains in November.

Core retail sales, which exclude gas stations, fuel vendors and motor vehicle and parts dealers rose 1.6 per cent nationally after declining in the previous two months.

Food and beverage retailers led the increase, up three per cent, driven largely by a rebound in beer, wine and liquor sales following labour disruptions in British Columbia earlier in the fall.

Clothing retailers posted a 2.4 per cent increase, while health and personal care sales rose 1.6 per cent.

Building material and garden equipment sales were also up 2.1 per cent, marking a second consecutive monthly gain.

Retail Council of Canada officials add that Alberta’s November numbers were consistent with strong Black Friday performance and earlier holiday shopping.

“November year-over-year sales were very strong in Alberta and showed what we anticipated to be a very strong Black Friday,” said John Graham, director of government relations for the Prairies with the Retail Council of Canada.

Graham said population growth and consumer resilience helped Alberta outperform other regions.

“There was a resilience amongst local consumers who were less concerned about the overall Canadian economy than we thought some shoppers would be,” he said.

Small businesses welcome lift but worry about what’s next

For small businesses, November’s spending boost offered some relief ahead of the holiday season, according to the Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB).

Kayode Southwood, CFIB’s senior policy analyst for Alberta, said stronger November sales were especially important given early indicators pointing to softer December results.

“When we look at CFIB’s business barometer, Alberta was actually the second most confident province in the country in December,” Southwood said.

“A lot of businesses were really worried heading into the holiday season about the level of spending that they were going to see.”

However, Southwood said challenges are mounting as businesses look ahead to 2026.

“Businesses have a lot of affordability challenges and concerns heading into 2026,” he said.

“Particularly insurance costs, tax and regulatory costs and wage costs top the list of their concerns, and we don’t expect those concerns to be alleviated anytime soon.”

Southwood said economic uncertainty tied to trade negotiations and the renegotiation of the Canada–U.S.–Mexico agreement could also further dampen confidence.

“That’s definitely going to be a major challenge.”

Signs of a slowdown ahead

Despite November’s strong showing, Statistics Canada’s advance retail indicator suggests sales may have declined by 0.5 per cent nationally in December, based on preliminary responses from businesses.

The agency cautioned the estimate will be revised.

Winder said Alberta’s retail momentum may additionally begin to taper as housing costs rise and population growth slows.

“Real estate prices have started to go up significantly in Alberta and in the big centres,” he said.

“People realize it’s getting towards Toronto prices.”

He also pointed to immigration reforms and global economic uncertainty as potential headwinds.

“There’s already less people coming to Canada, and our population as a country actually declined for the first time in a number of years recently,” Winder said.

“You’re going to start to see that slow down.”

Parsons echoed that caution, saying retail data has been volatile and that a sustained rebound depends on business investment rather than population-driven demand.

“The retail sales numbers have been really choppy,” he said.

“We had a big jump in November, but we’re going to look at a little bit more data before changing our mind.”

He said Alberta and Canada are entering a period where economic growth will need to come from capital investment and project execution.

“We’re at a critical juncture for the Alberta and Canadian economy,” Parsons said.

“Now we’re going to see more of the growth having to come from business investment.”