IMF says Canadian economy to grow at 1.5 per cent, lower than previous forecast

Canada will not be immune to the lower-than-expected economic growth expected around the world this year, the International Monetary Fund said Tuesday.

The IMF revised its global economic growth forecast for 2019 from 3.5 per cent to 3.3 per cent, citing ongoing trade uncertainty. Its forecast for growth in Canada’s economy was similarly lowered from 1.9 per cent to 1.5 per cent.

“This is a delicate year for the global economy,” the report reads.

“If … any of the major risks materialize, then the expected recoveries in stressed economies, export-dependent economies, and highly indebted economies may not occur.”

According to the IMF’s report, Canada’s economy grew by 1.8 per cent in 2018, 3 per cent in 2017 and 1.1 per cent in 2016.

Looking further ahead, the IMF forecasted 1.9 per cent growth for the Canadian economy in 2020 and 1.6 per cent growth in 2024, again largely in line with expected global trends.

Canada is barely addressed in the text of the report, although it did note that the country would be one of the biggest beneficiaries if the U.S. continues to apply tariffs to products from China. Were that to happen, the report said, the U.S. would look to Canada as one of its main sources for importingmachinery and electronics.

The report also predicted that Canada’s inflation rate would come in at 1.7 per cent this year, after finishing 2018 at 2.2 per cent, and that gross debt as a percentage of GDP would see a slight decrease this year and continue to fall through 2024.