Here's what jobs will survive in the AI boom: Statistics Canada estimates

CTV National News: Jobs at risk amid AI surge A federal study shows which jobs are at risk during the recent boom of artificial intelligence. Kamil Karamali reports.

The rise of artificial intelligence (AI) is reshaping the job market at an unprecedented pace, and new federal research shows that as these technologies evolve, some jobs are poised to benefit, while others may face significant challenges.

A study published Tuesday by Statistics Canada (StatCan) sheds light on how different occupations may be affected by the AI boom, including those who might lose their jobs in a more automation-driven future.

The analysis examined two key metrics to categorize jobs in an AI-driven labour market: Exposure, or the scope of projected AI impacts on those in a given occupation, and "complementarity," or the measure of whether AI helps or harms those currently holding the role.

Workers with high complementarity could expect AI to make their tasks and projects more efficient, while those with low complementarity may find their job could be made redundant entirely in an AI-powered workplace.

From those metrics, the study authors broke our three groups of workers: Those highly exposed to AI and who might benefit from it, those whose tasks might be replaced by AI, and those whose jobs aren't AI-compatible at all.

“Unlike previous waves of automation, which mainly transformed the jobs of less educated employees performing routine and non-cognitive tasks, AI is more likely to transform the jobs of highly educated employees performing non-routine and cognitive tasks,“ the study says.

The winners

According to the study, jobs that require higher levels of education, in sectors like healthcare and teaching, are more complementary to AI technologies.

Notable professions in this category include family physicians, teachers and electrical engineers. Twenty-nine per cent of Canadian workers made up this category in May 2021, says the study.

Results showed that AI may be more likely to transform the jobs of highly educated workers than those with less schooling, with 50 per cent of workers holding bachelor's degrees or higher considered both highly exposed and highly complementary to AI.

“Workers will still need the skills to be able to leverage the potential benefits of AI,” the study noted.

The losers

On the flipside, the study reveals that some jobs are at high risk of negative AI impacts.

Computer programmers and office workers—roles traditionally seen as secure in a tech-driven economy—are among the most vulnerable, according to the StatCan analysis.

The study defines these sectors as “high exposure and low complementarity,” indicating that AI could replace much of the work currently done by humans in these fields.

About 31 per cent of employees in Canada fell into this group as of May 2021.

While these occupations perform complex tasks, AI is advancing to perform these tasks just as effectively.

"Computer programmers in one region who spend their work day coding may be more susceptible to AI-related job transformation if AI is proficient in writing that code," the study says.

The study reveals that the index used in the research, to measure how AI applications may overlap with human abilities needed to perform a given job, is based on current possibilities of AI.

The study says that the index could be over or underestimated because it assumes that tasks within a given job are the same across regions and worker characteristics – which may vary and make some tasks more susceptible to AI-related job transformation.

Compared against the high-complimentarity group, researchers emphasize that the difference isn’t about the level of education, but how AI interacts with their work.

Despite similar education backgrounds, employees in fields like finance, insurance and technical services face higher exposure to AI-related job transformation, but with lower potential for complementarity.

“Close to 60 per cent of employees or more who studied mathematics and computer and information sciences—regardless of where they received their postsecondary education—were in high-exposure, low-complementarity jobs," the study reads.

“However, this does not necessarily mean that computer and information systems professionals will be in less demand in the future because of AI,” the study warns.

“While these professionals may be in high-exposure, low complementarity jobs, they are integral to maintaining and improving the underlying AI infrastructure, and this may lead to the creation of new tasks or jobs,” it added.

The low-exposure zone

While AI significantly impacts many occupations, there are still jobs that remain largely insulated from this technological wave.

These roles typically involve manual tasks that require a high degree of physical presence and hands-on skills, making them less susceptible to automation, the study found.

Jobs in this group include carpenters, welders, plumbers, food and beverage servers and firefighters.

“Low exposure occupations appear to be those that usually do not require a high level of education,” the study says.

Forty per cent of Canadian works were in the category as of May 2021.

But the researchers note that these estimates of AI’s exposure in jobs are based on a limited number of AI applications and their impact on some human abilities.

“The set of tasks which AI might be able to perform full unsupervised might grow in the future with technological advancement,” the study advises.

As well, employers may factor in financial, legal, and institutional reasons to avoid replacing human workers with AI, even if it is technologically feasible.

The study says higher exposure to AI in a particular occupation does not necessarily imply a higher risk of job loss.