Smith has ‘overwhelming’ support from UCP despite some debating her political future due to separatist movement: experts

Danielle Smith is now tasked with bridging the gap between UCP federalists and separatists as secession divides her voter base.

Support for an independent Alberta from members within the United Conservative Party (UCP) could be as high as 50 per cent, according to some political experts.

In November 2024, Premier Danielle Smith received a resounding vote of confidence from UCP members, with 92 per cent supporting her leadership.

But since then, a separatist movement has created a divide in Alberta, including what appears to be growing support for it among UCP members.

“This is something that can topple leaders. This is something that can destroy parties,” said political strategist Stephen Carter.

“And this is something that Danielle Smith has been playing around with that is finally going to burn her.”

Smith continues to advocate, in her words, “for a sovereign Alberta within a united Canada”, but with a judge’s decision to toss a separatist petition out the window, her next steps could be her most important.

“A wide tent party would mean a party that includes people that may support the separatist view and people that are federalists,” said former Alberta premier Alison Redford.

“And that’s that is a challenge that political leaders will face.”

Redford says Smith and her government have done a good job facilitating the process through citizen-led initiatives, but many separatist groups in Alberta are demanding she include the question of separation on the ballot in October, despite a recent court ruling.

“Does she see her role as being to take a position on this and advance that position or is it to facilitate the process?” said Redford.

“I believe that part of the role of a premier is to facilitate a process that allows for public debate. There’s no doubt that within those discussions that premiers will have points of view.”

Carter adds that the premier has played a pro-federalist and pro-separatist agenda, which could lead to a split within her own party.

“Premier Smith is in real trouble,” he said.

It’s a statement echoed by Alberta Independence Petition Project lawyer Jeffrey Rath, who says Wednesday’s quashing of the separation petition signals an “existential question” for her leadership.

The Premier’s office deferred any comment on her political future to her remarks on Wednesday.

“We have now 700,000 Albertans, whether they’re on the remain side or the leave side, who’ve said that they want to have this public debate,” said Smith.

‘Party will split’: Nenshi

On the final day of the legislative session, Alberta NDP leader, Naheed Nenshi laid the blame at the premier’s feet.

“The reason she panders to the separatists, because if she doesn’t, her party will split, and she will no longer be the premier,” Nenshi said.

The UCP says it full supports its leader in a statement.

“Premier Smith holds a 92 per cent approval rating from our members and leads every public poll by double digits, with approval ratings not seen since Ralph Klein,” read the statement.

“Under her leadership, we are shattering all-time fundraising records, pulling in two and a half times what the NDP raised last quarter, and drawing sell-out crowds at events across the province. You only see results like that when you have a strong leader with overwhelming support.”

A referendum on nine government questions is set for Oct. 19.

— with files from CTV’s Cassidy McMackon