Chocolate prices are up 20 per cent this Valentine’s Day as cocoa prices hit record

Chocolates are packaged for Valentine's Day on February 2, 2024, in Chicago, Illinois. Cocoa prices have surged over the past several years. (Scott Olson/Getty Images via CNN Newsource)

NEW YORK — It will be harder to find sweet deals on chocolate this Valentine’s Day. In fact, the cost of chocolate might put a bitter taste in your mouth.

“This Valentine’s Day expect prices for chocolate treats to increase around 10-20 per cent over last year as the price of cocoa has more than doubled since the beginning of 2024,” said David Branch, sector manager at Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute.

The price of cocoa hit a record high of US$12,646 per metric ton in December. Years of bad weather in the key cocoa-producing region of West Africa and the cocoa swollen shoot virus disease have hampered production.

In the last two years, the cost of manufacturing chocolate has increased by more than 167 per cent, according to the U.S. Producer Price Index.

“It really is a mess,” said Branch.

Retailers have raised chocolate prices in response.

In its 2024 report, Swiss chocolatier Lindt said it was a “challenging year characterized by record-high cocoa costs, substantial price increases, and weakened consumer sentiment.” The company said it raised its prices and expects that trend to continue in 2025. A 5.7 oz box of Lindt Valentine’s heart chocolate candy truffles costs $21.99.

Hershey’s said it buys cocoa nearly a year in advance, so the cost at the store this Valentine’s Day won’t reflect today’s cocoa prices. A 1-pound bar of Hershey’s chocolate costs $14.99.

“We continue to collaborate with our retail partners to ensure we offer a variety of products that meet the right occasions and price points for our consumers,” Hershey’s said in a statement.

Dirk Van de Put, CEO of Mondelez International, which owns Cadbury and Toblerone, noted the “unprecedented cocoa cost inflation” this year in the company’s 2024 fourth quarter earnings report.

Shoppers may be able to skirt higher prices by buying chocolate made with cocoa powder. More premium chocolate contains a higher percentage of cocoa.

“Consider shopping for sweet treats that contain less cocoa, this could mean going for the non-cocoa items or grabbing an item that has a filler and is not 100 per cent cocoa, which will make it cheaper,” Wells Fargo said in a report this month detailing this year’s prices.

Cocoa futures — what the market believes the next crop of cocoa will be worth — are up 143 per cent in the last year, according to Branch.

“Every time we get rain in West Africa, the futures change. People are watching it that close. It’s just crazy. There’s a lot of money on the table in this exchange,” said Branch.

Cocoa futures on Monday showed cocoa trading for less than $10,000 a metric ton, according to the Intercontinental Exchange. But Branch warns those prices can change very quickly.

“There’s still a lot of uncertainty in the market as to whether the harvests are going to be sufficient to erase this deficit with increased demand continuing to go up,” he said.

The Ivory Coast and Ghana produce 70 per cent of all cocoa, according to Branch. But over the years, production in these West African countries has become less reliable in the face of unpredictable weather and disease.

That leaves opportunities for other countries like Ecuador to get in on cocoa production, Branch said.

The caveat is that it takes four to six years to harvest a cocoa tree after it’s been planted.

“(It’s) a long-term solution, but not an immediate fix,” said Branch.