Bessent says U.S. tariff revenue could be well over US$500 billion a year

From left, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, U.S. President Donald Trump, Apple CEO Tim Cook and Vice President JD Vance, pose for a photo after President Trump made an announcement. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Tuesday that customs duty revenues from President Donald Trump’s tariffs may top US$500 billion a year, with a substantial jump from July to August and likely a bigger jump in September.

Bessent told a White House Cabinet meeting that his prior estimate of a US$300 billion annual tariff collection rate was too low.

• Latest updates on investing here

“We had a substantial jump from July to August, and I think we’re going to see a bigger jump from August to September,” Bessent said. “So I think we could be on our way well over half a trillion, maybe towards a trillion-dollar number. This administration, your administration, has made a meaningful dent in the budget deficit.”

Tariff revenue would offset the deficit increases triggered by the Republicans’ tax-cut and spending bill passed this year. CBO estimated this bill would widen the deficit by US$3.4 trillion over the next decade.

Trump’s tariffs drove July U.S. customs duty collections up by nearly US$21 billion from the US$7 billion collected in July 2024 and about even with the US$20 billion increase registered in June. Significant increases in tariff rates for nearly all trading partners kicked in on August 7.

• Trade War coverage on BNNBloomberg.ca

The U.S. Treasury reported on Monday that as of August 22, the government had collected US$29.6 billion in combined customs and excise taxes so far during August, matching its total for the whole month of July. As of July 22, that combined figure stood at US$7.8 billion, but customs duty collections can vary from day to day.

Bessent also noted that the U.S. Congressional Budget Office’s upwardly revised estimate last week of federal revenue from Trump’s tariffs, forecasting that it could reduce federal deficits by US$4 trillion over 10 years. “And I would expect that that number could go up from here,” Bessent added.

The latest CBO estimate marks an increase from June when it forecast that revenue from new tariffs would reduce deficits by US$3 trillion over 10 years.

---

Reporting by David Lawder; Editing by Mark Porter and David Gregorio