New Brunswick election: Poll shows tight race between Liberals and incumbent Tories

Susan Holt, Liberal party leader in New Brunswick, announces her official candidacy for Fredericton South-Silverwood, at the Liberal Party of New Brunswick's campaign kick-off in Fredericton on Sunday September 8, 2024. (THE CANADIAN PRESS/Stephen MacGillivray)

FREDERICTON — A New Brunswick election poll indicates the provincial Liberals are leading the incumbent Tories by a slight margin in voting intentions, but when the margin of error is factored in, the parties appear to be in a very tight race.

The results from the Mainstreet Research poll, released as the campaign began Thursday, were drawn from an automated telephone survey of 609 adults between Sept. 15 and Sept. 17.

The poll suggested the Liberals -- led by Susan Holt -- had support from 35 per cent of those surveyed, just ahead of the Tories at 32 per cent. The Green Party had 10 per cent and the People's Alliance party was a distant fourth at three per cent. All other parties, including the NDP, were at two per cent, and undecided voters made up 18 per cent of the results.

The poll, commissioned by Mainstreet, has a margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points with a 95 per cent confidence level.

Even when undecided voters were removed from the sample, the Liberals and Tories were only two points apart, and support for the Greens jumped to only 13 per cent.

As for the party leaders, when respondents were asked if they had a favourable or unfavourable view of Progressive Conservative Leader Blaine Higgs, 51 per cent said they held a very or somewhat unfavourable view. Another 11 per cent said they didn't know, with the remainder (37 per cent) saying their opinion of Higgs was very or somewhat favourable.

In general, respondents had a more positive view of Holt, with 46 per cent saying their view was very or somewhat favourable, and another 31 per cent saying their opinion of her was very or somewhat unfavourable. Twenty-three per cent said they didn't know.

Still, the Conservatives received some positive news when respondents were asked whether they supported the Tory government's decision last year to amend its school policy for sexual orientation and gender identity, also known as Policy 713. The new policy requires teachers to get parental consent before they can use the preferred first names and pronouns of students under 16 years old.

In all, 50 per cent of those surveyed said they supported the change, while 35 per cent were opposed, and the remainder did not have an opinion.

On the campaign trail Monday, the Liberals promised to impose a three per cent rent cap in 2025 if elected to govern. Holt released a statement saying rents across New Brunswick had risen by about 10 per cent this year alone. The cap would be reviewed annually but could be changed based on inflation and vacancy rates, she added.

"Too many New Brunswickers are finding it harder and harder to afford a place to live," Holt said. "For years, the Higgs Conservatives have ignored the housing crisis, allowing rents to soar while families struggle to make ends meet."

Meanwhile, the Tories focused on health care by pledging to expand the scope of practice of nurse practitioners, registered nurses, registered psychiatric nurses, paramedics and pharmacists. But they did not provide details, saying they would work with medical professionals and their governing bodies to "evaluate all scopes of practice."

"Being able to see a qualified health-care professional quickly is key to effective health care," Higgs said in a statement. "But that doesn't always need to be a doctor."

Elsewhere on Monday, the Greens promised to end "deep poverty" by implementing a "guaranteed livable income" within the first four years of their mandate.

"The social assistance system keeps people trapped in poverty, holding them back and keeping our province from reaching its potential," Green Party Leader David Coon said in a statement. "It's time to try something new."

A Green government would raise social assistance rates by 20 per cent, he said, to help people make ends meet until the guaranteed income program is in place.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 23, 2024.

For more New Brunswick news, visit our dedicated provincial page.