Deep divisions brewing among Republicans in U.S. over Ukraine: analyst

Like a Formula One race, pole positioning is now underway for the GOP presidential nomination and candidates are making moves they hope will give them every advantage.

The Republican field is expected to get crowded and nascent campaigns want to leave no stone unturned as they seek to be the last man (or woman) standing in November 2024. Unlike 2016, this time around, the landscape could prove especially difficult as nominees grapple with how to navigate the ongoing war in Ukraine. The field is not yet set but a line in the sand is already being drawn on the war with far-right lawmakers and nominees making clear the demarcations.

The tug-of-war has already begun and as both sides dig in, the potential for catastrophe is very real. This is the crucible that could be the death knell for a party that has only won the popular vote once this century.

Declared candidates, including former U.S. President Donald Trump, and former South Carolina Governor and United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley have offered similar opinions on Ukraine. No U.S. troop involvement; no blank cheque; and massive curtailing of future U.S. aid. Fellow South Carolinian, U.S. Sen. Tim Scott, fresh off a visit to Iowa, was asked recently by Fox New Host Sean Hannity his policy differences with Trump and his response was: “Probably not very many at all…”

CRACKS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW

Even Florida Governor and GOP darling, Ron DeSantis, whose entry into the presidential race is all but a foregone conclusion, is in lock-step with the MAGA wing of the party on Ukraine. A far cry from the position he took while a congressman when he lambasted the Obama Administration for a lack of full-throated response to Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014.

Still, cracks are beginning to show and it is only a matter of time before these divisions impact efforts to win back the White House and both chambers of Congress. Top Trump surrogate, Sen. Lindsey Graham, underscores the deep divisions brewing as he broke with Trump on Ukraine. Saying in a recent interview: “We need to do two things quickly: Make Russia a state sponsor of terrorism under U.S. law, which would make it harder for China to give weapons to Russia, and we need to start training Ukrainian pilots on the F-16 now.”

Graham goes even further in his assertions than the Biden administration and other Western allies, which have been reluctant to train and provide fighter jets.

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Doubling down, Senate Minority Leader, Mitch McConnell, who led a congressional delegation to the Munich Security Conference, took direct aim at those within his own party that might not be willing to provide ample support to Ukraine. He told media outlets, “ I think there’s been way too much attention given to a very few people who seem not to be invested in Ukraine’s success.” The Kentucky lawmaker leaves no doubt which side of the line he occupies.

The former Senate Majority Leader is anxious to get back to his perch atop the U.S. Senate and is taking a no-holds-barred approach on any issue, especially Ukraine, that might thwart his efforts.

Along with McConnell, nearly 25 Republicans from the House and Senate were in Munich displaying a unified front in support of Ukraine. Included in that delegation was the House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman, Republican Michael McCaul, who stated recently, “We need to throw everything we can into this fight so that they (Ukraine) can win.”

NUMBER OF ANTI-UKRAINE GOP MEMBERS RISING

Yet, as influential republicans stand united with Ukraine, perhaps more troubling is the number of anti-Ukraine GOP members continues to rise exponentially.

Making the propensity for internal conflict all the more likely. Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, in his recent address to Congress, spoke directly to the concerns of lawmakers saying emphatically, “Your money is not charity, it’s investment in global security…” He went on to add that Ukraine handles U.S. aid “in the most responsible way.” However, as campaign season gets underway, domestic politics, not foreign policy, will dominate the political landscape.

There is growing concern the backlash against Ukraine, by the far-right, suggests tacit approval for Russian aggression. Memories still linger of the Trump-Putin Helsinki Summit that saw President Trump accept Putin’s denials of election interference over his own intelligence agencies’ assessments. Perhaps the pro-Russia policy platform still lingers within the GOP and a small cadre within the party is prepared to fight to ensure its survival. If so, former Vice-President, Mike Pence, makes clear he will be the bulwark standing against such impulses.

The former Trump running mate is raising the stakes in this looming confrontation as he rebuked fellow Republicans for siding against Ukraine. He said in an interview, “While some in my party have taken a somewhat different view, there can be no room in the leadership of the Republican Party for apologists for Putin.” The potential GOP nominee went on to say, “There can only be room for champions of freedom.”

American support for Ukraine remains strong at 65 per cent. Yet, nearly half of Republicans (47 per cent) say the U.S. is doing too much.

By comparison, a majority of Democrats say American involvement is about right. Moreover, as President Biden gears up for re-election, selling U.S. support for Ukraine will be an easy lift given those current numbers. However, on the right, Ukraine is complicating efforts at a unifying message. Already the party is at odds with itself and as evidenced by the recent debacle determining a House Speaker, Republican fights are nasty, prolonged, bruising and ultimately debilitating. A split on the right over Ukraine could leave the nominee and the GOP in a similar fate. It is said that “iron sharpeth iron” when healthy and spirited debates take place. All too often though, when Republicans lock swords it’s more “kill or be killed.”