Moldova narrowly votes to secure path toward EU membership after accusing Russia of interference

Moldova's President Maia Sandu prepares to cast her vote on Oct. 20, 2024. (Vadim Ghirda/AP Photo)

Moldovans voted by a razor-thin majority in favor of securing the country’s path toward European Union membership, electoral data showed Monday, after the pro-Western president accused foreign interference and “criminal groups” of trying to undermine the vote in the former Soviet republic.

The “No” vote appeared to be ahead until the last few thousand votes were counted from the large diaspora of Moldova, whose authorities have accused Russia of trying to destabilize the country.

With 99.41 per cent of votes counted in the EU referendum held Sunday, the “Yes” vote stood at 50.39 per cent and the “No” vote at 49.61 per cent, according to the Central Electoral Commission.

A loss would have been a political disaster for the pro-Western government, which strongly supported the pro-EU campaign.

On Monday, President Maia Sandu reiterated claims that unprecedented voter fraud and foreign interference had undermined the voting, calling it a “vile attack” on Moldova’s sovereignty.

“Unfortunately, the justice system failed to do enough to prevent vote-rigging and corruption," she told a news conference. “Here, too, we must draw a line, correct what went wrong, and learn the lesson. We heard you: we know we must do more to fight corruption.”

Moldovan authorities claim that Moscow has intensified a “hybrid war” campaign to destabilize the country and derail its EU path. The allegations include funding pro-Moscow opposition groups, spreading disinformation, meddling in local elections and backing a major vote-buying scheme.

Russia has repeatedly denied it is interfering in Moldova.

Moldova applied to join the EU in the wake of Russia’s full-scale invasion of neighboring Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022, and was granted candidate status that summer, alongside Ukraine. Brussels agreed in June to start membership negotiations.

In Brussels, the EU’s executive branch, the European Commission, said its services had noted “unprecedented interference and intimidation by Russia and its proxies, aiming to destabilize the democratic processes” in Moldova, and it underlined its continued support for Moldova on its EU accession path.

Spokesperson Peter Stano told reporters that allegations of vote-buying, the bussing of voters and disinformation are only the most recent forms of Russian interference, and that attempts to undermine Moldova and its support for the EU have been going on for months.

EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen told Moldova's people: “You’ve done it again! In the face of Russia’s hybrid tactics, Moldova shows that it is independent, it is strong and it wants a European future!”

In the presidential race that was held at the same time, Sandu won the first round with 42 per cent of the vote in a field of 11, short of an outright majority. She will face Alexandr Stoianoglo, a Russia-friendly former prosecutor general who outperformed polls with around 26 per cent of the vote, in a runoff on Nov. 3.

By the time polling stations closed at 9 p.m. Sunday, more than 1.5 million voters — about 51 per cent of eligible voters — had cast ballots, according to the Central Electoral Commission. Moldova has a population of about 2.5 million.

Cristian Cantir, a Moldovan associate professor of international relations at Oakland University, told The Associated Press that earlier polls might have “overestimated the pro-EU feeling” inside Moldova and the referendum would have failed to pass without votes from outside the country.

“It’s going to be particularly problematic because ... it’s going to feed into narratives that are pushed by the Kremlin and pro-Russian forces,” he said.

The White House on Monday called the referendum a “historic step forward in Moldova’s European integration” but warned that Russia would try to interfere in next month’s runoff in the presidential race.

“The last several months Moscow has dedicated millions of dollars towards these efforts,” said U.S. national security spokesman John Kirby. “Now, Russia did not succeed. The results demonstrate democracy is strong, as is the will and desire of the Moldovan people to advance toward European integration.”

In early October, Moldovan law enforcement said it had uncovered a massive vote-buying scheme orchestrated by Ilan Shor, an exiled pro-Russia oligarch who currently lives in Russia, which paid 15 million euros (US$16.2 million) to 130,000 people to undermine the two ballots.

Shor was convicted in absentia last year of fraud and money laundering and sentenced to 15 years in prison in the case of US$1 billion that went missing from Moldovan banks in 2014. He denied the allegations, saying the payments were legal and citing a right to freedom of expression. Shor’s populist Russia-friendly Shor Party was declared unconstitutional last year and banned.

On Thursday, Moldovan authorities foiled another plot in which more than 100 young Moldovans received training in Moscow from private military groups on how to create civil unrest around the two votes. Some also attended more advanced training in "guerrilla camps” in Serbia and Bosnia, police said, and four people were detained for 30 days.

A pro-Western government has been in power in Moldova since 2021, a year after Sandu won the presidency. A parliamentary election will be held next year.

Associated Press writers Raf Casert and Lorne Cook contributed from Brussels; Aamer Madhani from Washington