‘Fractures forming’: Why the latest protests in Iran are different this time, according to an analyst

Kaveh Shahrooz from Macdonald Laurier Institute says the geopolitical situation in Iran today is different because it is ‘considerably weaker.’

Anti-regime protests in Iran continue, despite reports of a growing death toll among citizen protesters.

And with a communications blackout in the country - with internet and telephone lines shut off - and the threat of the U.S. somehow getting involved, the situation remains unpredictable.

One expert who spoke to CTV News Channel on Monday said the current protests challenging the country’s theocracy are different than others that have taken place over the years.

Kaveh Shahrooz is a senior fellow at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute and former senior policy adviser on human rights to Global Affairs Canada. He said that while the demand of regime change is one that we’ve heard before, what makes these fundamentally different than earlier protests or revolutionary movements in Iran is that the geopolitical situation is different.

“Iran in 2026 is considerably weaker than it has been in the past,” he said. “It’s militarily weaker. It was embarrassed during the 12-day war with Israel when Israel dominated Iran’s skies and killed a number of revolutionary guard commanders.”

Shahrooz said Iran’s economy is also in a worse position and that the country’s supreme leader is older and more isolated.

“There seems to be fractures forming within the ruling elites of Iran’s regime,” he said. “So it looks like a much more revolutionary and potent moment than we have seen in past uprises.”

While U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened to intervene, it’s not clear what that will looks like or when that will happen.

“I think a lot of Iranians went out in the streets based on an assurance from President Trump that he will have their back,” said Shahrooz. “So if he’s going to act, I think now is the time to do so. And U.S. involvement could really bring regime change about.”

Shahrooz said it’s unlikely that the U.S. will have boots on the ground, though it remains to be seen how things will play out. A few possible scenarios could be through bombing, cyberwarfare or a decapitation of leadership, like what recently played out in Venezuela.

“All these things are on the table,” he said. “I think the United States and Israel both have a great deal of capacity. They’ve got a lot of people on the ground, it seems. They seem to know exactly what Iran’s regime is up to. So I think there are a lot of different possibilities.”