Counting is underway in Ireland's election as three parties battle for top place

Fianna Fail leader Micheal Martin is hoisted up by his sons Cillian and Micheal Aodh, after the General Election, Saturday Nov. 30, 2024. (Jacob King/PA via AP)

DUBLIN — A marathon vote-counting exercise was underway Saturday in Ireland’s national election after an exit poll suggested that the contest is a close-fought race among the country’s three largest political parties.

Election officials opened ballot boxes at count centers across the country, kicking off what could be several days of tallying the results. If the exit poll is borne out, that could be followed by days or weeks of negotiations to form a coalition government.

The exit poll suggested voters’ support is split widely among the three big parties — Fine Gael, Fianna Fail and Sinn Fein — as well as several smaller parties and an assortment of independents ranging from the left to the far right.

The poll said that center-right party Fine Gael was the first choice of 21 per cent of voters, and another center-right party, Fianna Fail, of 19.5 per cent. The two parties governed in coalition before the election. Left-of-center opposition party Sinn Fein was at 21.1 per cent in the poll.

Pollster Ipsos B&A asked 5,018 voters across the country how they had cast their ballots. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 1.4 percentage points.

The figures only give an indication and don’t reveal which parties will form the next government. Ireland uses a complex system of proportional representation in which each of the country’s 43 constituencies elects several lawmakers and voters rank candidates in order of preference. As a result, it can take some time for full results to be known.

Fianna Fail politician Michael McGrath, a former finance minister and now a European Union official, said that “a number of different parties and groups will have to be involved” in forming a government.

“I hope it is a stable government that has the prospect of lasting the five years because of the challenges we are facing in Ireland and throughout the European Union," he told the PA news agency at a count in Cork, southwest Ireland. “Let’s allow the picture to emerge over the days ahead.”

The result will show whether Ireland bucks the global trend of incumbents being ousted by disgruntled voters after years of pandemic, international instability and cost-of-living pressures.

The cost of living — especially Ireland’s acute housing crisis — was a dominant topic in the three-week campaign, alongside immigration, which has become an emotive and challenging issue in a country of 5.4 million people long defined by emigration.

The outgoing government was led by the two parties that have dominated Irish politics for the past century: Fine Gael and Fianna Fail. They have similar policies, but are longtime rivals with origins on opposing sides of Ireland’s 1920s civil war. After the 2020 election ended in a virtual dead heat, they formed a coalition.

Before polling day, analysts said the most likely outcome was another Fine Gael-Fianna Fail coalition. That remains a likely option. The front-runners to be the next taoiseach, or prime minister, are current Taoiseach Simon Harris of Fine Gael and Fianna Fail leader Micheál Martin — despite their parties’ relatively lackluster showing.

The two parties would need the support of smaller groups or independents to achieve a majority in the 174-seat Dail, the lower house of Parliament.

The Green Party, which held 12 seats in the last parliament and propped up the governing coalition, acknowledged that it was headed for a disappointing result.

Among a large crop of independent candidates was reputed organized crime boss Gerry “the Monk” Hutch, who has seen a groundswell of support since he was bailed on money-laundering charges in Spain this month in order to run for election. Early results suggested he stood a good chance of winning a seat in Dublin.

Sinn Fein achieved a stunning breakthrough in the 2020 election, topping the popular vote, but was shut out of government because Fianna Fail and Fine Gael refused to work with it, citing its leftist policies and historic ties with the Irish Republican Army during three decades of violence in Northern Ireland.

Though Sinn Fein, which aims to reunite Ireland with the independent Republic of Ireland, could become the largest party in the Dail, it may struggle to get enough coalition partners to form a government. During the election campaign, both Fine Gael and Fianna Fail maintained they wouldn't go into government with it.

A Sinn Fein-led government would shake up Irish politics — and the future of the United Kingdom. The party is already the largest in Northern Ireland, and a Sinn Fein government in the republic would push for a referendum on Irish reunification in the next few years.

Party leader McDonald said that Sinn Fein had “broken the political mold” in Ireland.

“Two-party politics is now gone. It’s consigned to the dustbin of history, and that in itself is very significant," she said as she awaited results at a count center in Dublin. “The question now arises for us, what do we do with that?”

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Jill Lawless reported from London.