Popularity persists for Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew two years into government mandate

A new Probe Research poll shows Manitoba’s NDP maintaining its popularity two years after its election. Harrison Shin explains

WINNIPEG — Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew’s popularity shows little sign of sagging, more than two years after his NDP government was elected.

The support remains despite ongoing challenges in reducing health-care wait times, ending chronic homelessness and stopping a string of provincial budget deficits.

Kinew has consistently ranked at the top of monthly Angus Reid polls on the popularity of the country’s premiers, although the latest numbers suggest a drop of 10 points from earlier this year.

Quarterly opinion polls by Probe Research Inc. suggest support for the governing New Democrats has remained 20 points or more above the Opposition Progressive Conservatives.

One political analyst says part of the reason is Kinew has been able to show some progress on key issues, including health care.

“He’s thrown more resources into the health sector, with more hirings and his commitments to reopen emergency room beds,” said Christopher Adams, an adjunct professor of political science at the University of Manitoba.

Waiting times remain long, and assaults on nurses have become so problematic their union has “grey listed” two hospitals as a warning to potential job applicants. But the government has been able to point to progress made on 2023 election promises.

Work is underway on a new hospital emergency department in Eriksdale, and on redeveloping one in south Winnipeg that had been downgraded by the former Tory government.

On homelessness, the province says it has moved 130 people from encampments into housing, as part of its promise to end chronic homelessness in eight years. But critics say the province is not moving fast enough.

On crime, recent numbers from Statistics Canada say Manitoba’s violent crime index dipped slightly in 2024, but remained well above the national average.

Kinew said some of the larger social issues require spending on measures that prevent people from becoming ill, falling into poverty or following a path toward crime.

“The challenge is always that the prevention investments don’t typically show progress in an electoral cycle or along the same timelines as the immediate cost pressures show up,” Kinew said in a year-end interview.

“You’ve got to have some immediate tangible things that you can show progress on, and then wrestle and grapple with those longer-term, bigger picture challenges that we face as a society.”

Kinew’s promise to balance the budget before the 2027 election also appears to face a steep uphill battle. Last year’s deficit was larger than expected, and the current deficit is now forecast at $1.6 billion, more than double the original budget plan.

He has said the government has been looking to contain costs. There have been some examples recently, such as the impending closure of a government map store popular with canoeists and hikers.

Kinew, who is also the minister responsible for Indigenous Reconciliation, said there is also belt-tightening in his department.

“I am asking my deputy to look at that area and to trim a bit,” Kinew said, referring to both staff positions and operating costs.

“Indigenous Reconciliation also has an operating budget, which is effectively grants that are given out to community groups and First Nations and Métis organizations.”

Adams said Kinew’s popularity has benefited from the still-ongoing rebuilding among opposition parties.

Obby Khan was elected Progressive Conservative leader in April, and the Tories are working to pay off debt from the last election. The Liberals were reduced to one seat in that vote and chose Willard Reaves, who doesn’t have a legislature seat, as leader in September.

Kinew’s communications skills, as evidenced on social media, also help, Adams said. “He’s been doing the charismatic things that people hope a leader would do.”

Kinew hired staff to provide videos and photos for his social media accounts, and they follow him to record speeches, scrums with reporters and photo opportunities.

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The premier’s Instagram account has 381,000 followers. The government has at times used social media to make announcements instead of holding press conferences.

Kinew has also been able to raise taxes without seeing a drop in opinion polls.

In its two budgets to date, the NDP government has changed education property taxes and income taxes in ways that have added more than $200 million a year to provincial coffers.

A director with credit-rating agency S&P Global Ratings said the changes outweigh affordability measures, such as a gas-tax cut, that the government has touted in advertisements and on social media.

Khan said the Tories are gearing up for the next election and have made significant changes.

The party has a new logo, board of directors and president. It also has a new campaign director in Stephen Carter, an Alberta campaign veteran who guided, among others, Naheed Nenshi’s successful bid for Calgary mayor in 2010.

“We felt that we needed to look outside the province, bring a fresh perspective to Manitoba. But also bring a perspective of someone who has a lot of experience in a wide range of campaigns from across the entire political spectrum, that understands the electorate and where Manitobans and where the voters are at,” Khan said.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Dec. 29, 2025.

Steve Lambert, The Canadian Press