'Parachuting into the riding': Maxime Bernier hints at running for Manitoba seat long held by Tories

Maxime Bernier expected to run in Manitoba CTV's Michael D'Alimonte has more on PPC leader Maxime Bernier likely announcing a run in the Portage-Lisgar byelection.

A federal byelection in southern Manitoba could draw national attention later this year.

On Wednesday, the People’s Party of Canada (PPC) indicated leader Maxime Bernier will make an announcement in the Portage-Lisgar riding on Friday.

It is anticipated Bernier, a former Conservative cabinet minister who founded the PPC, will declare his candidacy for the open seat.

“I can tell you that I believe that people in Portage, or in these other ridings where there is a byelection, they will have an opportunity to make history,” Bernier said in an interview with the Canadian Press. "We are the only real conservative political party with common-sense policies."

Bernier said he wants give his right-wing party more visibility and participate in a federal leaders' debate during the next federal election campaign.

The former MP served for nine years in Parliament and held several roles in Stephen Harper's Conservative government, including helming the industry and foreign affairs ministries.

He quit the Conservative party in 2018, the year after he lost the party's leadership as a close runner-up to Andrew Scheer.

Bernier would not confirm his prospective run in that interview, but stated he does want to become an MP again.

“It sort of makes sense,” Christopher Adams, adjunct professor of political studies at the University of Manitoba, told CTV News on Thursday. “He’s the leader of a party with no seat in the House. There’s a byelection in a riding, which has shown a fair amount of support for the PPC in the last election. One out of every five person is that riding voted for the PPC in 2021.”

PPC candidate Solomon Wiebe picked up nearly 22 per cent of the vote in 2021. Longtime Conservative MP Candice Bergen was re-elected with 52 per cent.

Bergen, who served as interim Conservative leader last year, vacated the seat in February after 15 years at the helm – prompting the byelection.

“Maxime Bernier running in this byelection doesn’t commit him to running in this riding in the next federal election,” Adams explained. “I think he’s taking a flier running in Manitoba, and if his numbers are really high, he might run again here.”

However, Royce Koop, who also teaches political studies at the University of Manitoba, is skeptical Bernier will have much success in rural Manitoba.

“He might not actually get the votes his candidate got last time because COVID isn’t a concern anymore,” Koop told CTV News. “It’s going to be difficult to run the same kind of campaign that he ran in 2021. It’s going to be difficult to draw crowds in the way that he did back when COVID restrictions were a big issue and a big irritant.”

Bernier railed against lockdowns and other restrictions during the COVID-19 pandemic and was arrested in Manitoba for breaking public-health orders in 2021.

“The image of him being escorted into a police vehicle when he was arrested – I’d say that image is not a good image,” Adams added. “Now there will be people that say ‘that’s a true leader, you know, standing up for issues regarding COVID.’ But there will also be people, like swing voters, who might be turned off by that.”

Koop said Bernier’s biggest hindrance is that he did not grow up in Manitoba.

“Every community in Canada has little interesting characteristics and nuances and idiosyncrasies,” Koop explained. “And people that are successful as politicians know what those are all about. Bernier is going to have some policy appeal on COVID issues, but he really lacks the kind of connections that the other homegrown candidates have, and I think that would be a massive disadvantage for someone who is parachuting into the riding.”

Branden Leslie, the Conservative candidate in Portage-Lisgar, won that party’s nomination last month.

"I'm going to focus on being the best representative for the community I grew up in and the people I've known my whole life," Leslie wrote in a statement to the Canadian Press on Wednesday evening sent in response to the news that Bernier could run.

“Branden Leslie is someone who is well-known in the riding,” Adams said. “He has obviously worked very hard in the riding to get the membership to elect him and he was the campaign manager for Candice Bergen. So he, in many ways, shows continuity in this byelection.”

Adams and Koop agree running in the byelection is good exposure for Bernier and his party; However, the latter said the PPC leader would be better suited running again in Beauce, Que.

“It’s the seat where he actually was an MP,” Koop explained. “Everyone knows who he is, people know what he’s about. Go there and convince people in your own community to vote for you, just like the candidates that are running for the other parties in Portage-Lisgar.”

A date for the byelection has not yet been set.

- With files from The Canadian Press