‘These are not small margins:’ Doug Ford’s PCs hold 21-point lead, new survey suggests

Ontario Progressive Conservative Leader Doug Ford greets supporters after he was re-elected as the Premier of Ontario in Toronto on Thursday, February 27, 2025. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Chris Young (The Canadian Press)

The next Ontario election is likely still years away but a new poll suggests that Premier Doug Ford and the Progressive Conservative party remain well ahead of their rivals.

Abacus Data surveyed 1,000 adult Ontarians between June 2 and June 5 and found that if an election were held today about 49 per cent of committed voters would support Ford’s PC party. The Liberals were in second with the support of 28 per cent of committed voters while the NDP were at 14 per cent and the Greens were at five per cent. About four per cent of committed voters said that they would support another party.

Ford’s PC party was ahead in all regions surveyed by Abacus, though the gap was the closest in Toronto where they only had a four-point lead over the Liberals, according to the poll.

Notably, support for the PCs was up four points from the last time Abacus Data surveyed Ontarians in the days prior to February’s election. The Liberals were down one point, the NDP were down two points and support for the Greens was changed.

“These are not small margins. A 21-point lead over the second-place Liberals is rare in any political context. But for a third-term government battling economic insecurity, it is even more remarkable,” Abacus Data CEO David Coletto said in an analysis accompanying the poll results.

The Abacus Data survey also examined Ford’s personal popularity level for the first time since January.

It found that 44 per cent of respondents approved of the job Ford and his government are doing, up two points since the winter.

Abacus says that it is the highest approval number it has recorded for Ford since August, 2023.

Similarly, 33 per cent of respondents said that they had a favourable impression of Ford compared to the 33 per cent who said that they viewed him negatively.

About 31 per cent of respondents viewed Liberal Leader Bonnie Crombie favourably compared to the 33 per cent who viewed her negatively.

NDP Leader Marit Stiles was viewed favourably by 28 per cent of respondents and viewed negatively by 25 per cent of respondents. But a comparatively higher percentage of respondents – 16 per cent – said that they did not know enough to offer an opinion.

In his analysis, Coletto said that Ford currently possesses “by far, the most defined political brand in the province” and “remains in a very strong position” months after its re-election.

“Whether this holds depends on what happens next. The economy is still fragile. The housing crisis remains unresolved. And (U.S. President) Trump could introduce new anxieties that ripple across all levels of Canadian politics. But for now, the Ford government has time, space, and public goodwill. In politics, that is a rare combination, and one the Premier will no doubt seek to maintain and leverage to push his agenda forward,” he said.

The survey was conducted using a set of opt-in panels using the Lucid exchange platform.

While such polls are not assigned a margin of error, Abacus says that a comparable probability-based random sample of this size would carry a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.