‘Political outsider’ leads Ontario Liberal leadership field, new poll suggests

Pollster Kyla Ronellenfitsch discusses the survey which found Dr. Andrew Boozary, a political outsider is the only contender who could defeat Premier Doug Ford.

A new poll suggests Ontario’s Liberal leadership race is wide open, but one political outsider is already standing out.

The survey conducted by Relay Strategies and shared exclusively with CTV News found that Dr. Andrew Boozary, a Toronto physician and policy expert, is the only contender who could defeat Premier Doug Ford in a head-to-head matchup.

“Political outsider Dr. Andrew Boozary is far more eye-catching than established candidates,” the survey noted.

The online poll surveyed 1,268 Ontarians between Oct. 10 and 13, 2025. Officials note that while online surveys cannot report a formal margin of error, a random sample of this size would carry an approximate margin of +/-3 percentage points.

Last month, the party’s executive council approved the creation of a leadership vote committee following Bonnie Crombie’s announcement that she will step down as leader after receiving just 57 per cent in a leadership review at the party’s annual general meeting on Sept. 14.

The survey was released as the Ontario Liberal Party begins preparing for a new leadership race.

Crombie, who was elected in 2023, has previously said she will vacate the position once a successor is chosen.

Boozary leads field of low-profile contenders

The poll indicates that most Ontarians are unfamiliar with the rumoured candidates.

Speaking to CP24 Sunday morning, Kyla Ronellenfitsch from Relay Strategies suggested that it’s not entirely uncommon for political outsiders to resonate with voters.

“If we think back... to when Mark Carney was generating a lot of buzz, he’s somebody with a pretty substantial profile outside of politics.”

Ronellenfitsch suggest that officials wanted to compare how unconventional politicians would “match up” against people who are a little bit more well known in politics.

The survey highlighted that 55 per cent of respondents have never heard of Lee Fairclough even though she is an Ontario MPP representing the riding of Etobicoke-Lakeshore.

Meanwhile, 52 per cent have never heard of Nate Erskine-Smith, 48 per cent have never heard of Navdeep Bains, and 40 per cent have never heard of Karina Gould.

“People don’t know a lot about any of the candidates,” said Ronellenfitsch. “That kind of leaves some space for an outsider to come in and generate some interest.”

Gould and Erskine-Smith are currently Liberal MPs, while Navdeep Bains is a former Liberal MP and now works for Rogers Communications.

In addition, when respondents were shown photos, biographies, and social media content for three potential candidates, still, Boozary emerged as a clear front-runner.

Nearly half of Ontarians (48 per cent) said Boozary would make the best Ontario Liberal leader, compared to 30 per cent for Gould and 23 per cent for Erskine-Smith.

Among current or former Liberal members, Boozary held a similar edge: 44 per cent preferred him, followed by Gould and Erskine-Smith at 28 per cent each.

Who’s best suited to beat Ford in a head-to-head?

According to the survey, in a hypothetical provincial election matchup, Boozary was the only contender who would surpass Premier Doug Ford—with 52 per cent of Ontarians preferring Boozary as premier, compared to 48 per cent for Ford.

By contrast, Ford leads against other potential contenders: 53 per cent of respondents said they would prefer Ford over Karina Gould (47 per cent), and 55 per cent favoured Ford over Nate Erskine-Smith (45 per cent).

“Despite the lack of a permanent leader, the Ontario Liberals continue to poll ahead of the NDP,” the survey noted.

If an election were held today, 44 per cent of Ontarians would vote for Ford’s Progressive Conservatives, 29 per cent for the Liberals, 17 per cent for Marit Stiles and the NDP, six per cent for the Greens, and five per cent for another party.

Liberals seek a ‘fresh, experienced’ leader

Among the Ontario Liberal voters, the most important leadership qualities are economic management experience (86 per cent), political experience (82 per cent), and perceived electability (81 per cent).

Experience managing public services such as healthcare ranked high at 79 per cent, while 71 per cent said being “new and refreshing” was important.

The data suggest that Boozary who has never held elected office but has experience in health policy and administration, may align closely with what Liberals want in their next leader.

It should be noted that Boozary has not indicated whether he has any intention to run but Ronellenfitsch says already he’s someone who has generated “a little bit of buzz” early on.