‘We just got lucky’: How some GTA homebuyers are finding space in a changing market

A real estate agent puts up a 'sold' sign in front of a house in Toronto, on Tuesday, April 20, 2010. (Darren Calabrese / THE CANADIAN PRESS)

Jon Campbell didn’t expect to buy a house in Newmarket this year.

He also didn’t expect to postpone his wedding in Japan after having to move out of his Yonge and Eglinton condo when his landlord decided to put it on the market, or negotiate a mortgage — all at the same time.

“As you can imagine, (for) someone that’s about to get married in a few months, that doesn’t sound good,” Campbell said. “I might get a call one day saying we’ve got to move, and we’ve got to move right before the wedding.”

But when his landlord gave notice about intentions to sell — Campbell and his fiancée, both in their early 30s finally made a decision.

They weren’t going to rent again. They were going to buy — despite years of market frustration.

“We sat down and said ‘OK we’re going to buy... looks like there’s blood on the streets from the market.’”

Campbell is just one of several buyers who told CTV News Toronto they were able to seize a long-awaited opening in the housing market this summer.

It comes as new figures from the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board show 6,100 homes changed hands in July — up nearly 11 per cent from the same time last year and marking the busiest July since 2021. The surge came as the average selling price fell another 5.5 per cent to $1,051,719 and inventory rose more than 26 per cent across the region.

For some buyers those conditions - more listings, fewer bidding wars and slightly lower prices - created what experts describe as a “window in time.” But as to whether the shift signals the beginning of a lasting trend remains to be seen.

Forced to leave the big city

For Campbell and his fiancée, he says the “real search” began this past February.

With a household income of more than $200,000, they initially looked at condo townhomes in the city — but quickly ran into issues.

“The maintenance fees were ridiculous,” he said. “All the condo towns were so small, it was going to be a five-year plan. There’s no way we’re going to get married, have a kid, and be in a two-bedroom, two-washroom for that long.”

After roughly 10 showings in Toronto, he says their agent suggested looking further north. Campbell had lived in Newmarket as a child and once they expanded their search, he says it clicked.

“It was night and day,” he said. “We were like ‘OK, now we’re talking space.‘”

They found a freehold townhouse listed at $850,000, made an offer and had it accepted the same night they viewed it.

“We went to go see the property. Fell in love. We offered them $850K the same day… We closed at 12:30 a.m. Saturday night,” Campbell said. “Someone on my street just sold for $880K. So we got a perfect deal, the perfect property. I didn’t think this existed.”

A ‘stress-free’ transaction

Other buyers who wrote to CTV News say the experience has changed dramatically from the peak of the market frenzy in 2021.

Peter Amelunxen and his wife had rented near Toronto’s Mimico neighbourhood with their three children since returning to Canada in April 2020. After years of watching the market and walking away from “blind bidding wars,” he says they finally found the right property this summer.

“With the cooling market, our recent purchase has gone very smoothly, was stress-free, and the whole family is excited to move into our beautiful new house,” he said.

The couple bid slightly over asking and got a fast acceptance.

“We gave the seller a couple hours to make up his mind, and he accepted the offer right away,” Amelunxen said.

“Our real estate agent… said about a year ago, when he would have shown the house, he would have had to sit in the car and make the offer right away, because he wouldn’t have had time to drive back to the office before another one came in. Now… houses are sitting for a week or two. It makes it a lot less stressful," he added.

A ‘window in time,’ says one expert

While July sales were up, the months leading up to that moment painted a less rosy picture. Sales in April, May, and June were down year-over-year, and many buyers had remained on the sidelines amid uncertainty surrounding interest rates and the U.S.-Canada trade war.

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Last week, the Bank of Canada held interest rates steady for a third time, a move seen by some as a sign of stability — though the future of further rate cuts remains unclear.

For Campbell, that balance mattered.

“I didn’t want to get priced out of the market,” he said. “I would say the biggest factor was definitely interest rates. I was like, I’m not paying five per cent when the interest rates are going down. I’m going to try and get in a sweet spot where interest rates are a little bit high, but they’re affordable and the price is down.”

Cailey Heaps, president and CEO of the Heaps Estrin Team real estate brokerage, said that logic tracks with what she is hearing from clients.

“More listings plus slightly softened prices have created opportunity, prompting many long-waiting buyers to act,” she said. “We’re not seeing bargain-basement pricing, but buyers are enjoying something closer to control.”

Jason Mercer, Chief Information Officer for the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board, says while July’s numbers look promising, “one month doesn’t make a trend.”

“If we see a couple more months moving into the fall, where we’re seeing sales up in comparison to last year... then that would add credence to the argument that we are starting to see more people move off the sidelines.”

Still, Mercer emphasizes the need for more diverse housing types to meet demand and prevent future affordability issues.

In addition, it should be noted that one report by Ratehubs.ca last month suggested that home affordability deteriorated in 12 of 13 major markets in June. In Toronto, Ratehub.ca said that you had to have a household income of $206,500 to afford the average home in June, up more than $1,600 from the previous month.

The average household income in Toronto is $129,000, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation data.

“What we’re seeing now feels like a window in time more than a long-term trend Heaps said.”

“The fall will be a testing ground—will motivated sellers meet motivated buyers?”

A ‘picture-perfect situation’

CTV News also heard from buyers who said their recent home hunting experiences were notably less chaotic than in past years — citing fewer bidding wars, more choice, and less urgency to act.

“Buying our house was actually a picture-perfect situation,” Campbell said. “I didn’t think it exists.”

With a three-bedroom, three-washroom townhouse near the GO train, Campbell says he and his fiancée feel like they’re exactly where they need to be — even if it took a shift in expectations to get there.

“It was just the right opportunity at the right time,” he said. “We just got lucky.”