Toronto election: Will John Tory's endorsement make a difference

Toronto mayoral candidate Ana Bailão received a much sought-after endorsement Wednesday from former mayor John Tory, but experts and political watchers say it might not necessarily be the game-changing leg up she’s hoping it will be.

With days left before voters go to the poll in a special byelection being held to replace him, Tory said his former deputy mayor and council ally Bailão is the one for the job. In a roughly six-minute video, Tory said Bailão will fix housing, transit and a slew of other problems.

While the endorsement of the popular former mayor who stepped down just months ago is the most high-profile of the race, it certainly hasn’t been the only one.

Nine sitting councillors have said they are supporting Bailão, while six are supporting Olivia Chow and one is supporting Mark Saunders. Seven councillors have not said who they are supporting.

But while candidates might trumpet those endorsements, it’s not clear whether they necessarily translate into votes.

“I think it always helps to have people in your corner and supporting you, but whether that actually is guiding people's voting decisions, really is a bit of an open question here,” Professor Matti Siemiatycki, director of the Infrastructure Institute at UofT and a professor in the Department of Geography and Planning, told CP24.com.

While a recent Mainstreet Research poll indicated that candidate support was higher in areas where there have been endorsements for that candidate, it’s difficult to tell whether it’s higher because of the endorsement, or whether the councillor in that area is simply reflecting what their constituents are already feeling in terms of candidate choice.

“It's a matter of whether it's actually shaping voter intention,” Siemiatycki said.

Those who have experience in campaigns say endorsements sound great, but their significance is overblown.

“I've been involved in politics a long, long time. I don't think I have ever been involved in a campaign where an endorsement actually made a difference,” CTV political commentator Scott Reid told CP24 Wednesday. “They’re the fool’s gold of elections. They attract a lot of attention, but they usually have very little worth.”

Political strategist Kim Wright sounded a similar note.

“Ultimately, endorsements are for money, momentum or manpower. Those are the three things that those come for,” Wright told CP24.

She said the same is true even for a big endorsement like John Tory, and added that his support for Bailão would've been more useful earlier in the campaign ahead of advance voting if it was going to make a difference.

Wright also pointed out that Tory’s endorsement this past fall was not enough to seal victory for some of the council candidates he endorsed.

“As much as it's great to get an endorsement — it's much better than not getting an endorsement — the campaigns that he endorsed in the last election didn't win out,” Wright said. “He didn't bring new blood to council on his coattails.”

Many of the new faces who came to council after beating Tory-backed candidates have in fact thrown their support behind Chow. That includes Davenport Coun. Alejandra Bravo, who won Bailão’s old seat in the fall.

Regardless of whether the endorsements are effective for the candidates, one might wonder wehther they will contribute to a more fractured politics after the race.

But while it might seem like council is divided, with clusters of councillors supporting different candidates, Siemiatycki says most of them will likely be motivated to work with whoever gets in once the dust settles on the election.

“I think they move on pretty quickly, actually,” he said. “I think that's probably just because there's so many new issues that arise that they have to deal with and they're each trying to negotiate for the best position for themselves and their constituents.”

He said the fact that municipal politics does not work on a party system is helpful in that regard.

“In municipal council, the allegiances kind of shift depending on issues. It's not party based, right. It's much more individual and much more negotiated in that way.”

Whoever wins the mayoral race will also have a number of tools at their disposal to bring members of council on board. They include committee appointments and stronger powers which give them more control over the budget.

“Once the election is over,” Siemiatycki says, “then it's time to get down to business.

WHO THEY’RE BACKING: THE CANDIDATES BEING ENDORSED OR SUPPORTED BY MEMBERS OF TORONTO CITY COUNCIL

Ana Bailão

Brad Bradford

Olivia Chow

Josh Matlow

Mark Saunders

None - Councillors who are undeclared or have said they are not supporting anyone