Poll: Tory maintains strong lead but Keesmaat making gains

Despite mayoral candidate Jennifer Keesmaat’s modest gains, a new poll suggests John Tory may be difficult to unseat with less than two months to go until the election.

The Forum Research poll, which was conducted on Aug. 27, randomly sampled 1242 Torontonians and found that among decided and leaning voters, two-thirds (65 per cent) of respondents said they would vote for Tory if an election were held today.

About one third (35 per cent) said they would support Keesmaat, marking an increase of five percentage points since late July.

Tory strongest support came from people ages 55 to 64 and residents of North York and Etobicoke.

Those most likely to voice support for Keesmaat include people ages 35 to 44, as well as those living in East York and Scarborough.

Tory’s approval rating, according to the poll, remains consistently strong at 58 per cent, with just one quarter who say they disapprove of the job the mayor has done during his term.

“Keesmaat has narrowed the gap on Tory, but his lead is so substantial she needs more gains, and quickly, to have any hope at the mayor’s chair,” Lorne Bozinoff, president of Forum Research, said in his analysis accompanying the poll.

“But with his approval still higher than half that promises to be a difficult challenge for her.”

Keesmaat, a former chief city planner for the City of Toronto, entered the mayoral race on July 27 after learning of the province’s plan to slash the size of city council nearly in half.

At the time, Keesmaat said she felt the city needed “bold leadership” and “bold ideas.”

The election will be held on October 22, 2018.

The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus three per cent, 19 times out of 20.