Glaciers in the Rockies could all but disappear by 2100, study warns

A tourist crosses a foot bridge over a road leading to the Athabasca Glacier, part of the Columbia Icefields in Jasper National Park on Wednesday, May 7, 2014. (Jeff McIntosh/The Canadian Press)

A full 90 per cent of the glaciers in Canada's Rocky Mountains could disappear by 2100 if greenhouse gas emissions continue, causing huge changes to local ecosystems, University of British Columbia researchers warn.

In a new study, the researchers predict that the glaciers of Albert and British Columbia will continue to retreat, though not at the same rate.

Under their projections, the Rockies could lose up to 90 per cent of its glaciers by the end of the century if current trends continue. That would include large portions of the Columbia Icefield and the glaciers that have made Banff and Jasper such popular tourist destinations.

The wetter coastal mountains in northwestern B.C., meanwhile, are expected to lose only about half of their glacier volume, says Garry Clarke, a professor in the Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences at UBC.But they, too, would appear much different from today.

"Soon, our mountains could look like those in Colorado or California and you don't see much ice in those landscapes," he said in a statement.

For the study, researchers combined observational data with computer models and climate simulations to forecast the fate of individual glaciers.

They predicted changes in Western Canada's glaciers under a range of greenhouse gas emission scenarios used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), focusing on best and worst case scenarios.

They say that increases in carbon dioxide released from fossil fuel combustion will be the primary factor causing increases in surface air temperatures in the decades ahead.

The full study appears in the journal Nature Geoscience.

There are over 17,000 glaciers in B.C. and Alberta and they play an important role in freshwater supplies in the region, providing plenty of cool water to headwaters during the spring melt.

"These glaciers act as a thermostat for freshwater ecosystems," said Clarke.

"Once the glaciers are gone, the streams will be a lot warmer and this will hugely change fresh water habitat. We could see some unpleasant surprises in terms of salmon productivity."

The glaciers also contribute the water supply for hydroelectric power production, as well as for mining and agriculture.