A seismic shift in computing is on the horizon (and it’s not AI)

An IBM researcher holds the wafer, or the slice of silicon used to create processors and chips, for the company’s Loon experimental quantum processor. (IBM via CNN Newsource)

Creating revolutionary pharmaceutical drugs, testing new materials for cars and simulating how market scenarios can affect banks — these are just some of the tasks that could take months or years to develop, even with the most advanced computers.

But what if that timeframe could be cut down to minutes or hours?

That’s the promise behind quantum computing, a field that’s been studied for decades and has garnered increasing interest — and investments — from tech giants and startups alike.

On Wednesday, IBM revealed its new experimental Loon processor and Nighthawk quantum computing chip, which can perform more complex computations than its predecessor. The past two years have seen quantum-related announcements from Google, Microsoft and other tech companies.

Quantum computing could potentially lead to a US$1.3 trillion increase in value across certain industries by 2035, according to McKinsey & Company, and for good reason. Experts believe quantum computing could lead to breakthroughs in fields like cryptography, finance, science and transportation, and IBM says the technology could solve some problems in minutes or hours that would typically take non-quantum standard computers thousands of years.

But there’s a long road ahead. Cracking quantum computing isn’t a matter of upgrading existing computers. It’s an entirely separate approach to computing that relies on the principles of quantum physics.

“A fighter jet is not a faster Ferrari because it has wings,” said Sridhar Tayur, a professor with Carnegie Mellon University’s Tepper School of Business. “Quantum computing is not just a faster classical computer, because it works on a different principle.”

What makes quantum computers different?

Computers store and process information using a language made up of zeros and ones, also known as “bits.” But quantum computing uses “quantum bits,” also known as “qubits.” Instead of being either zero or one, qubits can behave like zero or one simultaneously and exist in states between zero and one, allowing them to process information much more quickly.

Picture it as a flipping coin, as CNN’s Anna Stewart explained. Bits are the coin when it lands on heads or tails, while qubits are the coin as it’s spinning between heads and tails, or if the coin could represent heads and tails at the same time.

But don’t expect quantum computers to replace your laptop or smartphone. Instead, these types of computers are ideal for solving big-picture problems involving chemistry and mathematics, making them potentially game-changing in areas such as health, environmental studies, finance, materials science and cryptography.

BMW Group and Airbus, for example, are working with quantum computing startup Quantinuum to research how the technology could be used in the development of fuel cells. Meanwhile, Accenture Labs, biotechnology firm Biogen and quantum computing company 1QBit are collaborating on research related to drug discovery. Quantum computers can compare molecules that are much larger than the ones classical computers can compute, Accenture said on its website.

“The big hope is that a quantum computer can simulate any sort of chemical or biological experiment you would do in the lab,” said Anand Natarajan, an associate professor of electrical engineering and computer sciences at MIT.

Quantum computing could be hugely influential when it comes to cryptography and cybersecurity since it can be used to break codes used to protect data, said Natarajan.

“So that’s also a major motivation, to make sure that our adversaries cannot do it and that we have this capability,” he said.

The Wall Street Journal reported in October that a handful of quantum computing companies were discussing potential deals with the Commerce Department that would provide federal funding in exchange for an equity stake.

When asked for comment, a Commerce Department spokesperson told CNN that it “is not currently negotiating equity stakes with quantum computing companies.”

The race to crack quantum computing

But the industry has a wave of challenges to overcome before quantum computing can solve modern dilemmas. For example, qubits are extremely fragile, making them very susceptible to external factors like changes in temperature or light.

IBM’s new experimental Loon processor attempts to address this hurdle by demonstrating that the components exist to build a fault-tolerant quantum computer at scale that can function effectively even when errors are present. It’s an important step because errors are inevitable given qubits are so susceptible to interference.

“If I just vibrate a table, I’ll kill our quantum computers. If a little bit of light gets in there, it can hurt it,” said Jay Gambetta, director of research at IBM.

IBM’s new Nighthawk chip, meanwhile, can run more complicated “gates,” according to Gambetta. Gates are the “building blocks” quantum computers use to process information, as the National Institute of Standards and Technology describes it.

IBM is just one contender in the quantum computing race. Microsoft in February introduced its Majorana 1 quantum computing chip. That chip contains a special material the company says can create a new state of matter capable of producing more stable qubits. Google in December unveiled its Willow quantum computing chip that it says reduces errors as more qubits are used and can do in five minutes what would take a classical computer 10 septillion years.

There are still some ways to go

The jury is still out on exactly when quantum computing will live up to its potential.

Natarajan believes we’re still likely a decade or two away. McKinsey said 72 per cent of the tech executives, investors and academics it spoke with say a fully fault-tolerant quantum computer could arrive by 2035. IBM expects to reach fault-tolerant quantum computing by the end of the decade.

But when it does happen, the benefits could be tremendous.

“Right now, in some sense … we are trying to do brain surgery using a spoon and a fork. But ideally, to do brain surgery, you would need far more refined tools,” said Tayur of Carnegie Mellon. “And that far more refined tools (are) one of the promises of the quantum computer.”

CNN’s Elisabeth Buchwald contributed to this report.

By Lisa Eadicicco, CNN