'Ukraine must win,' says Latvian PM on eve of Russian invasion anniversary

As the world marks the one-year anniversary of Russia's war in Ukraine, NATO allies are looking at what more can be done to support Ukrainians.

In a Canadian exclusive interview on CTV News Channel's Power Play with Vassy Kapelos, Krišjānis Kariņš says that while those discussions are ongoing, the end goal of the war is clear: "Ukraine must win… and Putin must lose."

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"One year later everyone is sending weapons… So that is an evolving realization and position of the Western allies. I think it's important that Western allies move in lockstep, and sometimes it takes a little bit of time for everyone come to the same conclusion," Kariņš said.

"But I think the conclusion is on one level very clear: Ukraine must win this war, and Putin must lose it. We cannot allow the rules-based system to simply be disentangled right in the heart of Europe."

Here is a transcript of the interview, it has been edited for clarity.

Vassy Kapelos: When this war started a year ago, did you think it would still be going on prime minister, a year later?

Krišjānis Kariņš: "We had no idea. But what is clear is that one year ago, Putin showed the world his true intentions, which is imperialism, murder at its very worst… Fighting in Ukraine, fighting against civilians, civilian infrastructure, bringing chaos to a country, trying to obliterate it.

"What is the only good side of the story is that the entire West has pulled very firmly together in aiding Ukraine, in fighting off this aggression. And I think Canada's role has been very important not only in strengthening the NATO presence here in Latvia— I'm very thankful that you're heading that NATO presence—but also your direct contributions to helping Ukraine that's very, very much appreciated."

Kapelos: And I do… have a couple of questions about that operation in your country in just a moment, but just to circle back to what you were saying about Vladimir Putin. He again made a speech today very specifically saying that Russia would ' pay increased attention to boost its nuclear forces on land, sea and in the air.' How seriously do you take that threat?

Kariņš: "Well, I think we have to take everything seriously. Russia is a serious threat to peace and security, not only in Ukraine in Europe, but around the world. He's been doing a lot of sabre-rattling this entire past year. So whether that means there's more to that, no one knows. But what is clear is that we have to take it at face value that Russia is not looking to be moving out of this war anytime soon, at least not of its own volition. And I think that's the message that Putin has given in his speech just the other day is that he's not going to be stepping back. That means we have to be prepared for that."

Kapelos: You, given your geographic positioning as well as your experience, are more familiar than a number of Western allies with sort of the way in which Russia operates, the way in which Putin operates. Have you been surprised at all at the way that Putin has reacted to increased NATO strength, increased unity among those allies? Has anything that Putin has done taken you by surprise?

Kariņš: "Unfortunately, no. What has come as a pleasant -- maybe not a surprise, but a pleasant realization -- is how united all of us have become in the face of his aggression. But remember, this is a government, this is an individual who's basically a dictator, a heinous country, it's all about maintaining power and when things are not going so well at home, war on the outside to rally to the cause of nationalism is what they're resorting to.

"The propaganda going on within the country is that Russia is basically under attack and is fighting a war similar to… the Second World War against fascism and Ukraine and the West, including all of us in NATO I suppose represent this fascism, which is meaningless from our point of view but very meaningful within Russia.

"And Putin, it seems that his grip on power, there's no signs that we see that it is weakening, which means that we have to take this threat credibly and translate it as he's not going to be backing down anytime soon. But he does understand strength. He does understand force. This is the language that he understands. It's not one of diplomacy, but of force, and the strengthening of NATO's position in the eastern flank is a very clear signal to Putin.

"And of course, the support for Ukraine is an absolute necessity for all of us, because in Ukraine, they are fighting and dying for the very values that we live by: freedom, democracy, and the rule of law."

Kapelos: I wanted to ask you about the nature of that support because it certainly has evolved throughout the last year. In particular, we now know that Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is very focused on procuring fighter jets, military jets of some sort in order to counter what is expected to be an offensive from Russia this spring. I spoke to, for example, Poland's ambassador to Canada this week who says Poland is willing to supply… This has to be from Poland's perspective a concerted effort among allies... Do you have an expectation that allies will evolve to that position? Or, does that seem a departure, too much of a departure from where they're willing to go?

Kariņš: "I don't necessarily see that as a departure. Over the past year I remember that in the evening of February 24, we were holding a European Council meeting when the attack started. And we were having debates on who or whom we should or should not sanction as individuals, let alone debates on any kind of unity in sending weapons.

"One year later everyone is sending weapons… So that is an evolving realization and position of the Western allies. I think it's important that Western allies move in lockstep, and sometimes it takes a little bit of time for everyone come to the same conclusion. But I think the conclusion is on one level very clear: Ukraine must win this war, and Putin must lose it. We cannot allow the rules-based system to simply be disentangled right in the heart of Europe, next door to all of the European Union.

"The type of weapon I think is secondary to the fact that there's unity involved…. We were providing weapons before the February 24 attack… So we've been all in. We have given more than 1 per cent of our GDP in terms of military aid, and we have a tremendous continuing groundswell of grassroots aid coming in all kinds of forms… So we're all in and we're very happy to see that more and more of our NATO partners are also going all in. It's very important."

Kapelos: Speaking of being all in and NATO: I do want to… ask you about the operation based in your country led by Canada. When you were visiting this country last year, the prime minister made a pledge to essentially double the contingent of the battle group that's there, the size of it, turn it into a brigade. I know that there have been discussions I believe, that that have started about how many soldiers each country ends up sending. Where are those discussions at? And when do you expect all of this to be finalized?

Kariņš: "First, I have to say, I think Canada's leadership, Truedau's leadership, is fantastic and very, very well appreciated in Latvia. Canada has stepped up, all the other NATO partners have stepped up. We're seeing more soldiers and importantly more equipment, that is our capabilities, are greatly enhanced… And the decisions, they're all coming together.

"And I have to say that under Canada's leadership, I have great confidence in all of our NATO allies, especially in Canada's leadership because what your country has done, maybe not everyone in Canada understands that you have forged a real fighting unit from 10 different NATO members. And this has actually not been done before. This is a true fighting unit, which has been forged together. It took five years to get it fully operational, but Canada did that. Now we're just in the process of increasing its size and capabilities. So, your country's leadership has done it once. I'm absolutely convinced that they'll be able to follow through on the next level."

Kapelos: There are a number of countries including this one… that are facing issues with the size of the military here… the pressures on the military, people retiring and not enough recruitment. Do you have any concerns that Canada will not be able to increase its share of soldiers as a part of this operation? Has that being conveyed to you at any point?

Kariņš ; "No, we don't have this concern because remember, for a brigade to be operational, one thing is the number of soldiers but as important and almost from one aspect more importantly, are the capabilities this brigade would have.

"So you know, if you have, I don't know 5,000 soldiers with only rifles, that's not going to be as effective as say half that many soldiers but with a full range of systems that they can use. So moving towards the brigade, Canada is one of 10 NATO members in Latvia, if all members proportionally move up as Canada already has, I think that won't be a problem.

"And so I don't see that as an issue at all."

Kapelos: Prime minister, I'll leave it on that note. Thank you very much for sharing some of your time with us today.

Kariņš: "Thank you very much."