Don Martin's sorry-to-be-cynical prediction on the federal budget
Don Martin's sorry-to-be-cynical prediction on the federal budget
Hanging out on Vancouver Island is mercifully as far away from Ottawa as a Canadian can get.
It’s the perfect place for a reality check during a budget week when the national capital region is frenzy-filled with breathless speculation, strategic pre-budget leaks and former insider prognostications that are wrong 50 per cent of the time.
Here, amid the sprouting of daffodils under blossom-filled trees, the budget isn’t merely forgotten upon release, it barely registers in the first place.
Heck, I was cruising on a friend’s boat just offshore from actor Pamela Anderson’s massive how’d-she-ever-get-that-approved dock in Ladysmith on Tuesday when it dawned on me the budget was already released and in full analytical swing, thus forcing a delay in writing this column until today.
That gave me a chance to read the day-after reviews on Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland’s latest shot at a legacy for her eventual Liberal leadership bid, delivered in a mercifully short speech to a chorus of nodding heads from Liberal potted plants in the background.
And what she got was a judgment jumble of mild praise, sharp derision and plenty of “meh” from the pundits on her 270-page fiscal doorstopper.
PRODUCTIVITY KILLER, CLIMATE GAME-CHANGER
Her budget is being panned as a productivity killer, praised as a climate game-changer, condemned as a fiscally reckless retreat from prudence and given a thumbs-up for deficit-taming spending cuts and a government services repair job.
But it’s hard to pin down exactly what it is because the budget vision, if any, is wrapped inside moves to re-introduce previously announced moves or expand already implemented programs while kicking the difficult spending-cuts stuff far beyond the expected lifetime of this Liberal government.
If the right industries buy into it, it would seem the budget could redefine Canada as a leader in a green-growth world. If they don’t, it might see our productivity and innovation levels fall further into the basement of developed economies.
MY CYNICAL PREDICTION
So here’s my sorry-to-be-cynical prediction. The only thing most Canadians will remember about the budget this time next week is how the booze tax increase was reduced to two per cent from six.
And being remembered for reducing a planned excise tax increase is a mighty sad legacy if Freeland’s resume is being polished for higher ambition.
The political bottom line to all this is that the NDP will support it, thus sparing the Trudeau government another call for help from Chinese interference to win over barely impressed voters.
It won’t fatally wound a Liberal brand built on deficit spending and social program expansions, which now stretch from daycares to the dentist.
And while it will hand the Conservatives some decent targets for legitimate angst, particularly over the deficit spending balloon, there’s not enough high-calibre ammunition for even the best Opposition gunners to bullseye the cabinet front bench.
So now starts another break from Parliament with the prime minister and his tagalongs fanning out across the country to remind Canadians how great they art and why this budget should cement their voting intentions to the Liberal spot on the ballot.
That could be the real challenge. As pollster Eric Grenier noted recently, the government’s own internal polling shows half of Canadians never heard or heeded a word about the 2022 budget after it was released and almost 60 per cent couldn’t name any specific measures in any recent budget.
By the time you read this, this eminently forgettable budget could largely be a flickering memory, disappearing into thin air and taking with it long-range spending and revenue spreadsheets that have all the lasting impact of pixie dust.
After all, here on Vancouver Island, the surf is pounding in Tofino, the spring flowers are in bloom everywhere and the hummingbirds are flocking to feeders.
With spring fever taking root, contemplating a federal budget would only dampen the mood.
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