Don Martin: Ford on cruise control to victory in Ontario while Alberta votes on killing Kenney as UCP leader
It’s becoming a make-or-break week for two Conservative premiers as their futures pivot on a pair of defining moments.
One looks set to win a provincial election on June 2. The other appears doomed to suffering considerable personal grief, if not a stunning defeat, from the party he created.
For Ontario’s Doug Ford, the leaders' debate Monday was the last chance for opponents to knock him off his folksy-charm podium. They failed. Another majority Progressive Conservative government beckons.
For Alberta’s Jason Kenney, the best and worst of times are unfolding. He was in Washington on Tuesday delivering a convincing pitch to increase Alberta oil exports before a Senate committee where boosting energy supply is an increasingly easy sell.
Yet he’s also just one day away from learning how many United Conservative Party members want to kill Kenney as leader. Anything less than a two-thirds thumbs-up for Kenney, a very challenging number for him to obtain, will put a mutiny into motion.
All this is to say there’s a mind-reeling divergence of good, bad and ugly political fortunes for these two Conservative clones.
While Kenney deserves credit for completing a mission impossible by reuniting rival right-wing Alberta parties before claiming the leadership and the premier’s job for himself, my true-blue friends (and former Kenney fans) in Alberta just loath the premier now. They perceive him as an arrogant, out-of-touch and generally incompetent leader, this despite the gusher of oil royalties pouring into the treasury amid signs the economy is up-ticking.
Ford, on the other hand, started his first mandate fixated on strange ideological priorities before going rogue with wacky pandemic restrictions and presiding over a troubled vaccine and equipment rollout.
'MOST BLATANT POLITICAL BRIBE I'VE EVER SEEN'
Then, with an election looming, he announced the most blatant political bribe I’ve ever seen. Even though nobody was demanding it, Ford terminated vehicular registration fees and mailed out vote-buying refund cheques for fees already paid.
It was galling waste of fiscal opportunity – and it worked like a charm.
He's still on top of the polls and I’m betting the debate did little to help his rivals dropkick Ford’s popularity down the charts.
So. getting back to the central question, why the fork in their respective political pathways to continuing as a leader?
THIS WILL BE KENNEY'S UNDOING
Kenney is still one of the smartest politicians I know, but his intellectual brilliance, ruthless partisanship and all-about-me mindset will be his undoing.
Believing the premier knows best, Kenney hogs the spotlight on every file, turns a deaf ear to caucus disagreement and bestows every cabinet minister with public invisibility. He is the political antithesis to the chummy premier he idolizes, namely Ralph Klein.
The intellectually lighter Doug Ford, as the debate showed, is more like Klein in that he publicly praises even mediocre ministers (yes, that’s you Education Minister Stephen Lecce), admits to making mistakes and apologizes before changing direction, all the while keeping campaign messages simple and positive.
Unlike Ottawa-bashing Kenney, Ford has learned to play nicely in the political sandbox, praising Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland and even saluting the Green party leader this week, a kinder, gentler approach offering some relief to a public fed up with the endless antagonism.
This has raised the prospect of Kenney faltering, if not failing, and Ford, who couldn’t even successfully deliver a new licence plate for Ontario, cruising toward re-election.
The likely explanation for this is not political rocket science.
Politics today (and it’s been that way for a while) is all about personality over policy in a social media age where clever quips and 10-second clips deliver more impact than a fully-costed platform.
If or when future political science students write a Ford-versus-Kenney, success-versus-failure comparative thesis, several conclusions may emerge.
They’ll note that nice guys do indeed finish first, particularly if they admit mistakes and show a self-deprecating sense of humour. Which is why folksy Ford will likely claim victory over plastic Liberal rival Steven Del Duca.
And they’ll learn that nobody likes the smartest kid in the class, particularly when they constantly make sure everyone knows it with an arm-waving look-at-me answer to every question. Which is why the UCP may gleefully kick party founder Jason Kenney to the curb.
That’s the bottom line.
IN DEPTH
Budget 2024 prioritizes housing while taxing highest earners, deficit projected at $39.8B
In an effort to level the playing field for young people, in the 2024 federal budget, the government is targeting Canada's highest earners with new taxes in order to help offset billions in new spending to enhance the country's housing supply and social supports.
'One of the greatest': Former prime minister Brian Mulroney commemorated at state funeral
Prominent Canadians, political leaders, and family members remembered former prime minister and Progressive Conservative titan Brian Mulroney as an ambitious and compassionate nation-builder at his state funeral on Saturday.
'Democracy requires constant vigilance' Trudeau testifies at inquiry into foreign election interference in Canada
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau testified Wednesday before the national public inquiry into foreign interference in Canada's electoral processes, following a day of testimony from top cabinet ministers about allegations of meddling in the 2019 and 2021 federal elections. Recap all the prime minister had to say.
As Poilievre sides with Smith on trans restrictions, former Conservative candidate says he's 'playing with fire'
Siding with Alberta Premier Danielle Smith on her proposed restrictions on transgender youth, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre confirmed Wednesday that he is against trans and non-binary minors using puberty blockers.
Supports for passengers, farmers, artists: 7 bills from MPs and Senators to watch in 2024
When parliamentarians return to Ottawa in a few weeks to kick off the 2024 sitting, there are a few bills from MPs and senators that will be worth keeping an eye on, from a 'gutted' proposal to offer a carbon tax break to farmers, to an initiative aimed at improving Canada's DNA data bank.
Opinion
opinion Don Martin: Gusher of Liberal spending won't put out the fire in this dumpster
A Hail Mary rehash of the greatest hits from the Trudeau government’s three-week travelling pony-show, the 2024 federal budget takes aim at reversing the party’s popularity plunge in the under-40 set, writes political columnist Don Martin. But will it work before the next election?
opinion Don Martin: The doctor Trudeau dumped has a prescription for better health care
Political columnist Don Martin sat down with former federal health minister Jane Philpott, who's on a crusade to help fix Canada's broken health care system, and who declined to take any shots at the prime minister who dumped her from caucus.
opinion Don Martin: Trudeau's seeking shelter from the housing storm he helped create
While Justin Trudeau's recent housing announcements are generally drawing praise from experts, political columnist Don Martin argues there shouldn’t be any standing ovations for a prime minister who helped caused the problem in the first place.
opinion Don Martin: Poilievre has the field to himself as he races across the country to big crowds
It came to pass on Thursday evening that the confidentially predictable failure of the Official Opposition non-confidence motion went down with 204 Liberal, BQ and NDP nays to 116 Conservative yeas. But forcing Canada into a federal election campaign was never the point.
opinion Don Martin: How a beer break may have doomed the carbon tax hike
When the Liberal government chopped a planned beer excise tax hike to two per cent from 4.5 per cent and froze future increases until after the next election, says political columnist Don Martin, it almost guaranteed a similar carbon tax move in the offing.
CTVNews.ca Top Stories
Robert Pickton to remain in medically induced coma until later this week: police
Serial killer Robert Pickton will remain in a medically induced coma for at least the next few days following an attack in a Quebec prison Sunday, according to police spokesperson Hugues Beaulieu.
Charlie Colin, founding member of the pop-rock band Train, dies at 58
Charlie Colin, bassist and founding member of the American pop-rock band Train, best known for their early-aughts hits like 'Drops of Jupiter' and 'Meet Virginia,' has died. He was 58.
'Five feet nothing': Pickton's safety likely behind Quebec transfer, says ex-prison judge
When serial killer Robert Pickton was transferred from British Columbia's Kent Institution to a maximum security prison in Quebec about six years ago, correctional authorities gave no public explanation or confirmation at the time, citing privacy.
'I feel betrayed': Ottawa-area customers out thousands of dollars warn of bad faith contractor
A group of people from eastern Ontario and western Quebec is issuing a warning about Dennis Walker and his company Vue Windows.
Fancy pigeon outfitted in custom diaper has free rein in B.C. family home
When Chrissy Chin volunteered to take in a fancy pigeon abandoned on a park bench, she never imagined she would one day be ordering custom-made diapers for the bird – who lives in her house and has become a member of the family.
'We'll need all hands on deck': Details emerge after deadly boat crash near Kingston
Police say they have wrapped up their on-scene investigation into a deadly boat crash in eastern Ontario as details of the incident begin to emerge.
WestJet planning new fare category for travellers willing to forgo carry-on bag
WestJet Airlines plans to launch a new cheaper fare category that would be available to travellers willing to fly without a carry-on bag.
5 dead and at least 35 hurt in Iowa tornado: officials
Five people died and at least 35 were hurt as powerful tornadoes ripped through Iowa Tuesday, with one carving a path of destruction through the town of Greenfield, officials said.
Woman found dead in Lake Ontario in 2017 matches identity of missing person in Switzerland
Genetic genealogy has helped Toronto police identify a woman who was found dead in Lake Ontario in 2017.
Local Spotlight
'Best experience ever': B.C. baker on making it to the finals of Netflix's 'Is it Cake?'
When Jujhar Mann said he wanted to be a pastry chef on a grade school career project, he didn't imagine that pursuing his dream would land him on a popular Netflix baking competition.
Winnipeg chef delivers Manitoba cuisine to Houston diners
A city known for its history, ties to outer space and southern barbecue, is also home to a Winnipeg chef dishing out dozens of perogies.
Montreal photographer captures dramatic Canada goose vs. fox fight on video
A Montreal photographer captured the moment a Canada goose defended itself from a fox at the Botanical Garden.
Beyond books: Halifax libraries lends instruments, sports equipment, memory kits and more
Public libraries in Atlantic Canada are now lending a broader range of items.
'A special bird': The unbreakable bond between purple martins and humans
Flashes of purple darting across the sky mixed with the serenading sound of songs will be noticed more with spring in full force in Manitoba.
7-year-old Pokémon prodigy heading to Hawaii for world championship tournament
Catching 'em all with impressive speed, a 7-year-old boy from Windsor, Ont. who only started his competitive Pokémon journey seven months ago has already levelled up to compete at a world championship level.
VIDEO Born without front legs, this dog has been inspiring the world for 3 years: Dresden farm owner
A sanctuary dedicated to animals with disabilities is celebrating the third birthday of one of its most popular residents.
From DVDs to rehearsals: Halifax theatre company transforms Video Difference building into arts hub
2b Theatre recently moved into the old Video Difference building, seeking to transform it into an artistic hub, meeting space, and temporary housing unit for visiting performers in Halifax.
'Another pair of eyes watching over me:' How a B.C. woman's service dog saved her from drowning
A B.C. woman says her service dog pulled her from a lake moments before she had a seizure, saving her life.