Tom Mulcair: Carney can take on Trump, but he’s got big challenges at home, too

Tom Mulcair breaks down new steel and aluminum protections, their impact on Canada-U.S. trade, and PM Carney’s key measures.

Tom Mulcair is a former leader of the federal New Democratic Party of Canada between 2012 and 2017, and a columnist for CTVNews.ca.

The new Carney government got elected on a promise of results.

The core team he’s assembled to back him was purpose built with a single goal top of mind: Getting things done.

Economic issues generally and trade issues, in particular, were dictating the agenda. What was new was the single-minded determination. The threat of a trade war with our closest ally, the United States, was thought to be the stuff of a theoretical lament for our nation.

Then, it happened. When it did, and newly-elected Donald Trump actually voiced the desire to attack Canada economically and make us the 51st state, there was a sudden need for a Canadian adult in the room.

Exit Justin Trudeau, enter Mark Carney. No matter where you are on the political spectrum, you’ll have seen that Carney has been moving very fast on his promise to find new partners around the world and to develop opportunities at home.

Carney knows that the window to get anything changed in a big, modern economy is very narrow. Opposing interests are well defined, positions are well defended. The extreme clientelism of the Trudeau years ground his government to a halt. It’s not that they lacked ideas, it’s that they couldn’t get anything done.

Caught in a second minority government, Trudeau cut a deal with Singh to ensure his own political survival. It wound up costing both of them dearly. Parliament was shut down by the Conservatives and the Liberals were in free fall in the polls. Singh’s NDP was nearly wiped out at the ballot box, because the deal with Trudeau had cost them any definition of who they were.

Although he was also handed a minority government by voters, Carney has been behaving like someone who has a majority; and it’s easy to understand why.

What he’s seeking to accomplish can only be realized if other political actors are on board, but there was no way he was going to put himself in lockstep with the NDP, an idea he quickly rebuffed.

Carney’s ‘de-facto majority’

Instead, Carney’s determination and bold vision seem to be accompanied by a chess player’s moves. He’s almost challenging the other parties to take him on because he’s confident in his overall position.

Carney knows that Canadians agree with his approach and want him to succeed. Provoking an election any time soon would simply provide Carney with a majority. That political reality has provided him with a de-facto majority, even if he lacks a numerical one. Carney has gone all in.

Barely a month after the election, he introduced sweeping legislation to accelerate resource projects and has sought to remove American arguments about security issues by immediately meeting our NATO spending obligations and tightening the border.

The NDP quickly signalled that they wouldn’t make the same mistake that had cost them most of their seats. They’d become an opposition party. It used to irritate us in the NDP when we were called the “conscience of Parliament”, because it left us out as real players.

I suspect that interim NDP Leader Don Davies won’t mind that role at all in the current context. The NDP seem set to patiently rebuild their brand and avoid voting with the Liberals. The Bloc, as comically irrelevant as ever, will continue to wave their wooden swords and no one will pay any attention.

The real game, and the real view into the strategy of Mark Carney, was his forceful squeeze play on the Conservatives. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith weighed in quickly: She wanted Carney’s bill passed. It didn’t take long for the Conservatives to fold. Carney will get his legislation before the summer, as he requested.

Poilievre is about to become an Alberta MP and he’ll have to decide who his boss is: His own party or Danielle Smith’s. The answer to that question could have a determining effect on whether Poilievre’s Conservatives retain the sizable gains they made in Ontario, where he used to be an MP.

As is often the case in politics, it’s the people inside your tent who can cause the most problems. Ontario Premier Doug Ford, a classic Progressive Conservative, has been proving himself to be a key ally of Carney. He wants resource projects and other development for Canada’s largest province. The key goal of accelerating the review process is at the top of his list.

The corrupt shenanigans, around Ford’s Greenbelt land grab, should be a warning sign to Carney. Be careful when pushing aside environmental and habitat protections. Ford may believe that the public no longer cares about the issue but the Mounties are still investigating and the result could be serious trouble for Ford and for Carney, if he becomes too closely identified with the Ford approach.

There will be innumerable environmental, social and economic issues that will require deft handling by Team Carney. None will be as difficult as reconciling the constitutional, treaty and inherent rights of First Nations, Inuit and Métis peoples with their ambitious agenda.

That’s where the “aw shucks” populism of Doug Ford can quickly become a major problem.

Ford’s recent pronouncements on the relationship with Indigenous peoples have been particularly ham-fisted:

“There’s an opportunity of a lifetime for them. We’re giving them $3 billion with a B … to be equity partners, to make their communities more prosperous and wealthier and have services they’ve never had before…there’s going to be a point that you can’t just keep coming hat in hand all the time to the government,“ said Ford.

“You’ve got to be able to take care of yourselves — and when you literally have gold mines, nickel mines, every type of critical mineral that the world wants, and you’re saying, ‘No, no, I don’t want to touch that, by the way, give me money.’ Not going to happen. It’s simple.”

The reply from Alvin Fiddler, the highly respected Grand Chief of Nishnawbe Aski Nation, was sharp and to the point. He said Ford’s remarks were “offensive, rooted in racism and colonial violence.”

Ford has since offered an apology but it’s hard not to agree with Grand Chief Fiddler’s characterization. That could eventually prove a huge problem for Carney.

For over 50 years, going back to an injunction that was issued in favour of the James Bay Cree to block a mammoth hydroelectric project in Quebec, wise resource developers have understood the need to work on a respectful nation-to-nation basis.

That’s what Quebec has done, by the way, and although things are far from perfect, large developments continue to move forward because partnerships, and trust, have been created.

The old method, of throwing everything you’ve got at big law firms in the hope of defeating Indigenous rights, has proven a failed model, time after time after time. Ford does seem to have a glimmer of understanding that partnerships are the key, but he’s such a blunt instrument, he manages to insult those he says he’d like to make a deal with. Not an auspicious start.

Carney has his work cut out for him, and has been going about it with inspiring energy and determination.

To help him meet his ambitious goals for Canada, he has managed to recruit some extraordinary players to his team. Within cabinet, Energy and Natural Resources Minister Tim Hodgson will play a crucial role. But it’s two outsiders who provide the key clues to Carney’s approach.

Chief of Staff Marc-André Blanchard is best known in Ottawa as Canada’s former ambassador to the U.N. Prior to that he’d been the national CEO of one of Canada’s top law firms. You don’t get to drive that sort of enterprise without knowing how to deal with oversized egos; great training for dealing with caucus and cabinet.

Blanchard is said to have bruised many during his tenure, but he got the job done. He went on to a key role at the massive Caisse de dépôt pension fund where his international experience was put to good use (and where his published salary was $2 million a year).

He’ll be taking a huge pay cut to return to public service and he’s not doing it for the glory. He’s onside with Carney’s vision for Canada and will be essential to achieving those results.

The most astounding hire was that of Michael Sabia. Like Blanchard, a tough task maker. A Montreal colleague chuckled as he related Sabia’s tendency to call key meetings for 5:30 pm on Fridays during his time running Hydro Quebec. A nice way to remind top people that their big pay cheque comes with obligations. He’ll be running the Privy Council Office, Carney’s ministry that operates the entire government.

Go back to the Throne Speech to understand what types of massive cuts and reorganization are in store for the top brass in Ottawa. Any deputy minister who thought they’d be spending the summer on the dock at their cottage had better think again.

This is a unique time in Canadian political history. An unparalleled threat to our very existence being handled by a brilliant, energetic and refreshingly engaged new team. Canadians are onside. Now it’s time to deliver the results.