Liberals gather in Ottawa as election results indicate a tight race

Liberal Leader Mark Carney gestures as he leaves a polling station after casting his ballot in the federal election in Ottawa on Monday, April 28, 2025. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Justin Tang

OTTAWA — With early election results showing a tight race in Atlantic Canada, the seats are still mostly empty in the Ottawa hockey arena where Liberal Leader Mark Carney is set to address scores of party members later tonight.

Media and party staff are milling about on the floor as technicians run sound checks ahead of a pivotal night for a party that, just months ago, was seen to be marching toward defeat — but which recent polls suggest may walk away tonight with a majority win.

Canadians went to the polls today after a 37-day election period, casting their votes in 343 ridings across the country.

Polls closed across Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island and New Brunswick at 7:30 p.m. ET, while those in Newfoundland and Labrador closed a half-hour earlier.

Those early polls are showing a close race, with The Canadian Press decision desk projecting the Liberals have taken 20 of the 32 ridings in the Atlantic provinces, with six for the Conservatives and another six undetermined.

In the 2021 election, the Liberals took 24 of 32 seats in the region.

Earlier in the day, Carney cast his ballot at an Anglican church in Ottawa alongside his wife, Diana Fox Carney. While Carney is running for a seat in Nepean, he voted in the nearby Ottawa—Vanier—Gloucester riding where he currently lives and where Liberal candidate Mona Fortier is running for re-election.

Carney, a former central banker and a political novice, became Liberal leader and prime minister in March. He has focused much of his campaign on arguing he’s the best leader to take on U.S. President Donald Trump.

Carney paused his campaign several times to deal with Trump’s tariffs in his capacity as prime minister. Carney revealed late in the campaign that in a phone call, Trump had brought up his idea of making Canada a U.S. state — even though Carney initially described the discussion as “cordial” and said Trump treated Canada with respect as a sovereign nation.

In early January, polls suggested the Conservatives would win the election, as Poilievre led the Liberals by more than 25 points. But with the departure of former prime minister Justin Trudeau and Trump’s tariffs and threats against Canadian sovereignty, Liberal fortunes turned around dramatically.

Quito Maggi, president and CEO of Mainstreet Research, was at the Liberal campaign event Monday night. He described the last four months as “unprecedented.”

“Trump gets inaugurated. Trudeau resigns. Conservatives were leading in our polling by as high as 29 points in November, and then suddenly it closes up,” he said. “A couple weeks later, suddenly it’s a tie, and then the Liberals start taking the lead.”

He noted that a one-point difference in the polls could translate into a major difference in seats. A party needs to win at least 172 seats for a majority.

With a projection of 177 seats for the Liberals, “everybody knows a one-point difference could turn into 162 seats and a one-point difference the other way turns into 191 seats.”

How that will play out will become more clear shortly, with polls set to close at 9:30 p.m. in vote-rich Ontario and Quebec, as well as the Prairies, the Northwest Territories and Nunavut.

Carney campaigned in four different provinces on Sunday but cancelled several planned events and dropped Calgary from his itinerary after a tragic vehicle attack in Vancouver on Saturday.

His campaign style took on a more muted tone on his final day on the campaign trail — shorter speeches, no mention of his rival Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre.

Instead, Carney continued attacking the Trump administration’s trade war and calling for Canadians to unite against Trump’s calls for Canada to become a U.S. state.

Following the vehicle attack on a Filipino community event — which claimed 11 lives — Carney’s team agonized about whether it was appropriate to continue campaigning.

Carney ultimately decided to join a crowd of mourners on Sunday near the site of the incident, along with Premier David Eby, Vancouver Mayor Ken Sim and local MLA Mable Elmore. A community member broke out into an impromptu rendition of Amazing Grace and the crowd of mourners soon joined in. None of the politicians spoke throughout the event.

When Parliament was dissolved, the Liberals held 153 seats in a minority government and the Conservatives formed the official Opposition with 120 seats. The Bloc Québécois held 33 seats, the NDP 24 and the Greens two. There were three independent MPs.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published April 28, 2025.

Kyle Duggan and Anja Karadeglija, The Canadian Press