Opinion polls show CAQ is heading into majority territory

Poll shows CAQ dominance Political analyst Philippe J. Fournier talks about the latest poll that shows a clear CAQ majority

As politicians in Quebec City prepare to finish their business for the spring, polls show a growing number of them will not be returning in the fall.

A large poll of Quebecers shows that citizens are throwing their support behind the Coalition Avenir Quebec, which is poised to assume control of the government.

The poll shows 32 percent of Quebecers favour the CAQ, 23 percent support the Liberal party, 16 percent prefer the Parti Quebecois, and eight percent like Quebec Solidaire. Seven percent support parties that do not have a seat in the National Assembly, and a further 15 percent are considered undecided.

Leger redistributed the uncertain voters for its calculations, and determined that 37% would vote for the CAQ, 28 % for the Liberals, 19% for the PQ, and 9% for Quebec Solidaire.

The study also found that 31 per cent of participants view Legault as the best choice for premier, nearly double the amount of support for incumbent Philippe Couillard.

"People are fed up of the Liberal party. After 15 years they want a change," said Legault.

The Couillard government has been in power for four years after defeating Pauline Marois's 18-month-old minority government.

Genevieve Guilbault of the CAQ was quite happy to hear that polling support could translate into 83 seats for her party: a solid majority in the National Assembly.

"It is good news. We are in a good mood this morning, which is good because we still have a lot of work to do until October 1, which we will do all over the province of Quebec.

The projection is that the Liberals would drop to 33 seats.

It would however be a disastrous showing for the PQ, which would drop to five seats -- not enough to maintain official party status.

Jean-Francois Lisée, leader of the PQ, was dismissive of the results, saying he believes polls this far in advance of a vote do not reflect what will happen on election day.

"Mr. Legault is doing as well as Thomas Mulcair a few months before he lost, and Denis Coderre a few months before he lost.. It's fine, there are polls, they are interesting, we look at them, but they do not predict anything," said Lisée.

The poll surveyed 3,234 Quebecers aged 18 and over, weighted by region, gender, education, and ethnic backgound.

Leger surveyed people from May 31 until June 10, and says its poll has a margin of error of 1.72 percent, 19 times out of 20.