How much could your salary go up in 2026?

A person at work. (Kampus Production/pexels.com)

Quebec employers say they plan to increase employee salaries by 3.2 per cent in 2026, according to a report released Tuesday by the province’s Order of Certified Human Resources Advisors.

This marks a third consecutive decline since the peak of 4.1 per cent in 2023, all employers combined.

All the same, the Order’s executive director, Manon Poirier, points out that the 3.2 per cent increase in wages in Quebec remains higher than expected.

“We expected to see a wage increase below the three per cent mark because [of] what we’ve been experiencing in recent years,” she explained. “We saw 4.1 per cent a few years ago, then 3.8 per cent and 3.5 per cent. That wasn’t the norm. We were in a context of labour shortages and high inflation.”

However, she notes, the economic context has since changed.

“With price growth falling below wage growth since 2024, there is every reason to believe that wages will now increase at a slower pace,” said Poirier.

Best and worst sectors

The wages forecasted for 2026, based on the surveys of eight specialized firms, hold a few surprises, including wage increases of only 2.8 per cent in health and social assistance, though the sector has thousands of job vacancies.

Poirier points to “the timing of collective agreement negotiations” in health and social services, which took place in 2023, and the fact that increases negotiated by the Common Front are applied uniformly.

Additionally, increases for the retail and wholesale sector are expected to reach 3.1 per cent, even though it is a sector that is dominated by young people.

All the same, there has been an increase in youth unemployment in recent months.

Poirier notes that employers in the retail sector “have had difficulty recruiting for several years,” so they may be offering significant increases to attract more candidates.

The Order of Certified Human Resources Advisors is also forecasting higher increases of 3.8 per cent — above the Quebec average — in agriculture, forestry, hunting and fishing.

“We don’t usually see them at the top of the list,” said Poirier.

She explains the phenomenon could be due to a change in regulations affecting temporary foreign workers.

She also suggests that employers may be looking for a way to make the sector look “more attractive.”

– This report by The Canadian Press was first published in French on Sept. 17, 2025.