Indigenous population in Canada could climb to nearly 3.2 million by 2041: StatCan

SASKATOON -

The population of First Nations, Métis, and Inuit communities could rise to nearly 3.2 million by 2041 if high birth rates continue and more people continue self-identifying as Indigenous, according to new projections from Statistics Canada.

This trend is in line with how Indigenous communities have been steadily growing in recent decades. Over the next 20 years, Indigenous populations are also projected to grow faster than non-Indigenous populations, the federal agency notes, despite the latter expecting to see an increase due to international migration.

The Indigenous population in Canada was 1,800,000 based on 2016 census data, and that figure is expected to rise in all provinces and territories.

According to StatCan projections, the Indigenous population could jump by nearly 40 per cent, reaching 2,495,000 in 2041, based on the slowest-growth-rate scenario. And under the medium-rate scenario, it could rise to 2,848,000, while the highest-rate projections forecast a population of 3,182,000.

The biggest reasons for this spike? Higher fertility and more people increasingly self-reporting their Indigenous identity over their lifetimes, with some people newly self-identifying as Indigenous in the latest census, StatCan said.

Breaking it down based on specific communities:

• The First Nations population could reach between 1.5 to 1.8 million by 2041,
• The Métis population could exceed one million by 2041,
• The Inuit population could reach nearly 100,000 in twenty years and,
• One in five people in Manitoba will be Indigenous in 2041, with Manitoba and Saskatchewan projected to have the highest proportion of Indigenous people in their populations, which was the case in 2016.

Although data from March showed the pandemic likely caused Canada to see its lowest overall population growth rate since 1916 in 2020, StatCan said their latest protections of Indigenous populations don’t include special adjustments to reflect the pandemic’s influence.

Also of note is how Indigenous population is projected to remain younger than the non-Indigenous population, with the former’s median age jumping to approximately 38 years old in 2041 – up from 29 in 2016. By comparison, the non-Indigenous population is only projected to increase from 41 to 44.7 years over the same period.