Canada heading into wildfire season with above-average temps, minimal snow

Widespread drought, warmer weather and minimal snow cover during the winter means Canada could see an intense wildfire season through the spring and summer after unprecedented burns last year.

In what is now regarded as Canada’s worst wildfire season to date, fires scorched more than 15 million hectares of land over a period of more than four months in 2023. Evacuation orders impacted about 230,000 people were evacuated from their communities, aided by the deployment of 2,000 Canadian Armed Forces personnel and 5,500 emergency firefighters brought in from other countries.

This year, Environment and Climate Change Canada predicts above-normal temperatures will persist nationwide, though precipitation levels – a key aspect of wildfire risk – is more difficult to forecast.

However, elevated temperatures and drought in B.C., Alberta and Ontario could lead to an “explosive” wildfire season, Emergency Preparedness Minister Harjit Sajjan said during a news conference on Wednesday. There are also forecasts of elevated risks elsewhere in Canada.

Here’s the forecast as it stands:

• April: Government forecasters expect above-normal levels of risk in western Canada, eastern Ontario, and southern Quebec.
• May: Elevated risk across the Prairies, eastern and southern B.C., northern Ontario and western Quebec. 

While it’s too early to say whether this year will be comparable to last season, modelling data has already indicated that “there is a high level of risk,” according to Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault, who was also present at the news conference.

The government says it took stock of its response to last year’s fires to identify gaps. While evacuations and fire response plans are primarily up to municipalities and provinces to carry out, regional officials can request help from the federal government, which then takes on a co-ordinating role. In 2023, it received 18 such requests.  

Last year, for the first time, firefighters from the European Union were dispatched to battle Canadian fires, and Energy and Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson said Canada’s emergency preparedness plan with the U.S. was recently updated. He hinted Wednesday that other agreements of that kind could be announced soon, but didn’t give details.

In another first, the government assembled a new “Indigenous Emergency Management Working Group,” which met for the first time in February. It’s a part of Ottawa’s push to better-prepare First Nations communities to respond to wildfires.

Under a new payment plan, Indigenous communities are eligible for advanced funding to respond to wildfires, in place of reimbursements.

Last year, 93 evacuations were carried out in 82 First Nations communities.

In 2023, the federal government spent about $760 million in its share of the Disaster Financial Assistance Arrangements fund in order to fight wildfires.