War-driven surge in gas prices set to meet arrival of summer driving season

A person fills up their car at a gas station in Montreal on Thursday, March 5, 2026. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Christopher Katsarov

CALGARY — It’s not a given that the surge in fuel costs motorists have faced in recent weeks will become the norm, says the head of petroleum analysis at price-tracking website Gasbuddy.com.

An easing of the war in the Middle East would take the air out of ballooning crude oil prices, but any immediate relief would be somewhat tempered by the arrival of the high-demand summer driving season, Patrick De Haan said Monday.

“It’s all really contingent on what happens in the Strait of Hormuz,” he said, referring to the narrow waterway connecting oil-rich Persian Gulf states with the open sea.

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Iran borders the north side of the strait, through which one fifth of the globe’s oil supply normally moves. Tanker shipments all but ceased after the U.S. and Israel launched their war on Iran on Feb. 28, though a small number of vessels have been able to pass in recent days.

U.S. President Donald Trump says he has asked seven countries to send warships to keep the channel open. Iran’s top diplomat said Monday the passage is only closed to the U.S., Israel and their allies.

The price of a barrel of crude oil edged close to US$120 a barrel earlier this month, but has since fallen back to around US$96. That’s still about 45 per cent higher than where it was before the war.

“We’ve seen some positive movements,” De Haan said. “So there might be some light at the end of the tunnel.”

The highest Canadian average gas price Gasbuddy has recorded was 210.8 cents a litre on June 12, 2022, around the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The website, which gathers price reports from drivers across Canada and the U.S., has Monday’s average at 166 cents a litre, up 37.2 cents from last month.

The Canadian Fuels Association, citing data from Kalibrate Canada Inc., said crude oil represents about 41 per cent of the final pump price for gasoline, with taxes, refining, distribution and marketing making up the rest.

De Haan said motorists shouldn’t assume the current high prices are here to stay for the long haul. But they also shouldn’t expect relief to come quickly if there’s a resumption in normal traffic flows through the Strait of Hormuz, he said.

“When the situation in Iran eases, if we see some improvement there, then we will start to see prices falling back. But they probably won’t fall back to their pre-war level just yet.”

That’s because refineries switch over to producing pricier summer fuels around this time of year and demand picks up with the warmer weather.

“So a lot will likely prevent the full drop from happening.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published March 16, 2026.

Lauren Krugel, The Canadian Press