Why Cyber Monday could break U.S. spending records despite economic uncertainty

Shoppers browse for Black Friday deals at Atlantic Station outdoor mall, Friday, Nov. 28, 2025, in Atlanta, Ga. (AP Photo/Megan Varner)

NEW YORK (AP) — Shoppers scoured for deals online on Cyber Monday, delivering strong sales for retailers and capping a five-day spending spree that kicked off on Thanksgiving.

Adobe Analytics reported that as of 6:30 p.m. EST on Monday, U.S. consumers had already spent $9.1 billion online for Cyber Monday, up 4.5% from the same day a year ago.

Adobe expects that when the final tally is in, consumers will spend between $13.9 billion and $14.2 billion for the day, making Cyber Monday the biggest online shopping day of the year— and setting records for that day.

Online spending is expected to peak between 8 p.m. and 10 p.m. local time, with $16 million to pass through online shopping carts every minute nationwide, Adobe said

Electronics and apparel are leading the charge for Cyber Monday, Adobe reported.

The sales results are in line with Adobe Analytics prediction of $14.2 billion online Monday, or 6.3% more than in 2024.

U.S. consumers already spent $11.8 billion online during Black Friday, $6.4 billion on Thanksgiving Day and another $11.8 billion over the weekend — exceeding Adobe's forecasts.

Adobe said Monday that it expects the five-day weekend to drive 17.2% of overall online sales this season, at $43.7 billion , up 6.3% compared with the year-ago period.

Purchases made across Cyber Week — the five major shopping days between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday — provides a strong indication of how much shoppers are willing to spend for the holidays.

“Cyber Week is off to a strong start," said Vivek Pandya, lead analyst at Adobe Digital Insights. “Discounts are set to remain elevated through Cyber Monday, which we expect will remain the biggest online shopping day of the season and year.”

Software company Salesforce — which tracks digital spending from a range of retailers, including grocers — reported that Cyber Monday was off to a “strong start,” with global online sales as of noon EST reaching $17.3 billion, up 5.3% from last year. It said that the number of online orders was unchanged from a year ago.

Salesforce said U.S. online sales hit $3.4 billion, or up 2.6%, on Cyber Monday during the same time frame. Online orders declined by 1% from a year ago.

With several hours of Cyber Monday shopping still ahead, Salesforce said it's expecting global online sales to grow 6% compared with the year-ago period to reach $52.7 billion and for U.S. online sales to increase 4% compared with a year ago to $13.3 billion.

The numbers are coming in slightly below Salesforce's original prediction for online sales to total $13.4 billion in the U.S. and for global sales to reach $53.7 billion on Cyber Monday.

While the amount of money going into online shopping carts is expected to reach new heights Monday, rising retail prices also may contribute to any record sales figures that materialize. Consumers may be buying fewer total items. Experts say tighter budgets are causing many to shop with more precision than in years past — such as focusing on a few “big ticket” purchases, for example, and spreading out what they buy over days of promotions in hopes of getting the most bang for their buck.

Businesses and households have watched anxiously for financial impacts from U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs on foreign imports. Workers in both the public and private sectors are also struggling with anxieties over job security amid both corporate layoffs and the aftereffects of the 43-day government shutdown.

For the November-December holiday season overall, the National Retail Federation estimates that U.S. shoppers will spend more than $1 trillion for the first time this year. But the rate of growth is slowing — with an anticipated increase of 3.7% to 4.2% year over year, compared with 4.3% during last year's holiday season.

At the same time, credit card debt and delinquencies on other short-term loans have been rising. More and more shoppers are turning to “buy now, pay later” plans, which allow them to delay payments on holiday decor, gifts and other items.

Overall, mobile devices have become the dominant shopping platform consumers are turning to for the holidays. Adobe expects smartphones, wearable tech and other handheld electronics to account for 58% of online spending this season.

Five years ago, a majority of online purchases were made on desktops.

Shopping services powered by artificial intelligence are also expected to play a role in what consumers choose to buy. For Black Friday, Salesforce estimated that AI assistants and digital agents contributed to $14.2 billion of the total $79 billion it said was spent online worldwide.

To many, Cyber Monday is billed as the “last call” to take advantage of the deepest discounts in the days following Thanksgiving. But its reach has grown over the years.

Cyber Monday is two decades old now, dating back to when the National Retail Federation first coined the term in 2005. Today, sales continue to bubble up throughout the week — riding on the hype that the industry has built to fuel consumer spending.

Wyatte Grantham-philips And Anne D'innocenzio, The Associated Press